How Would a Significant Terrorist WMD Attack Might Be Conducted - Article Example

 How Would a Significant Terrorist WMD Attack Might Be Conducted? Introduction The face of terrorism has never been so threatening, a few decades ago, as it is today. It has changed its entire shape and structure from reasons instilled in familiar ideological and ethno-nationalist groups to partly or wholly religiously driven groups. The former form of terrorism arose during the cold war, as indirect expression of hostility between the two superpowers. There was wrestle for the military coalitions, defense system, surveillance, development of weapon, invasions, competitive technological development, which included space race. The high-cost defense spending included a chase of massive conventional and nuclear weapons along with numerous proxy wars. However, the latter form has arose from the proliferation of groups with extremist religious or quasi-religious mindsets. Conventional form of terrorism belonged to recognized and organized group of people, with identifiable number of individuals, with previous training regarding the use of techniques and weapons for terrorism. They used to plan for conspiracy and plotting of attacks underground full time, often at a will, or demand of foreign government. Brian Jenkins, a terrorism expert on that note said two decades ago, “Terrorists want a lot of people watching and a lot of people listening and not a lot of people dead.” (Helm, 1975) According to him, killing many people has seldom been a terrorist objective. In fact, they function on the principle of applying as minimum force as essential. As long as killing of few people is enough for attracting the attention of high-officials towards their causes, targeting masses is unnecessary for these groups. They have been highly discerned in their targets. For bombing, they would rather opt for figures representing their source of enmity, the most relevant and the most effective for the achievement of their missions, as for example banks, embassies, airline carriers, etc. These include a number of organizations as well as ethnic & separatist terrorist movements. Some examples of the former are the Red Brigades in Italy, the Japanese Red Army, the Red Army Faction in Germany, the 17th of November Organization in Greece and Dev Sol in Turkey whereas of the latter are Palestine Liberation Organization, the Provisional Irish Republican Army, and the Basque ETA. However, today masses have become the target of those numerous, unidentifiable, newer-born extremists, who plan their attacks in hidden avenues, and for whom the more the killing the more the possibility of achievement of their missions, is their mantra. The use of non-conventional weapons has not only increased but has become intense and concentrated as well. These groups of far more potential, nebulous, and threatening characteristics have replaced what was once a calculated, predictable threat of a general war, much more difficult to prevent from. Jenkins, on the potential use of WMD, specifically radiological or nuclear weapons noted that though there seemed an involvement of deliberate spread of toxic radioactive material; it could not fit into the traditional pattern of terrorism. Reason being they aimed at producing immediate striking effects with little number of casualties and certainly not a population becoming mortally ill, an action that can not be halted even after they have achieved their political objectives. He furthered that it would rather be out of character to victimize masses for no reason, and make them suffer with continual effects. (Jenkins, 1985) In the early 90s, according to the RAND-St. Andrews University Chronology of International Terrorist Incidents, there was a decline in number of terrorist incidents, which was certainly a noteworthy achievement in the struggle against terrorism. However, further observation of the data surprisingly revealed that although there was a decline in the number of incidents, there was an increase in casualties, which reflected a lesser but violent and much lethal number of terrorist activities. The number of international incidents recorded in 1991 was 484, in 1992; 343, 1993; 360, 1995; 353 and 1995; 278. Twenty-nine percent of incidents occurred in 1995 killed at least one person, whereas comparatively 17 and 19 percent of international incidents respectively killed anyone in the 1970s and 1980s. (Gray, 2007) Thus, these observations further proved that though the terrorists were becoming less active yet much more lethal and devastating. Detailed study of three of the incidents of lethal operations that lead to massive deaths in early 1990s further revealed that the not-so-traditional form of terrorism lies in religious or quasi-religious grounds. Indicating a flare of upcoming violence and atrocities, these incidents became a matter of concern for all. Chronologically, the first of these occurrences happened to be in 1993. A deliberate attempt to bomb and topple down one of the twin towers of the New York City’s World Trade Centre, over the other by the Islamic extremists, whilst the discharge of fatal cloud of venomous gas. The other in the series happened to be in March 1995, when an apocalyptic Japanese religious faction carried out a nerve gas attack on the Tokyo subway system, killing about a dozen of people and wounding 3,796. (Sayle, 1996) Just a month later in April 1995 there was another bombing at the Oklahoma City federal office building, purportedly by two anti-government Christian white supremacists putrefying 168 persons. The connection amongst the three occurrences laid one or the other way, in some sort of religious motives behind and that much fatal than the traditional terrorist activities. Traditional Terrorism versus Religious Terrorism By assessing the two kinds of prevailing terrorism i.e. the traditional and the religious, it is evident that the former has quite contrasting characteristics then the latter. Where the former has reasons embedded in political and nationalist movements and purposes, the latter finds violence to be a reparation act or divine duty that they act upon as per some sort of urgent theological demand. While former goes for an indiscriminate violence yet considering it to be immoral, the latter initiates it as morally justified duty, necessary for he attainment of their goals. (Jenkins, 1985) To put it the other way, religion becomes a legitimizing force imparted by sacred text or clerical authorities that claim to articulate for the divine. They also need a sort of approval, they call need to be “bless” by their religious figures, without which they cannot put their plans into action. Few examples proving the same are; in the anticipation of aggravating a horrendous nuclear “holy war”, the Jewish messianic terrorists group schemed to waft the Islam’s third holiest shrine i.e. the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem would result in the annihilation of all Israel’s Arab enemies. Another example is of the leaders of groups like the American Christian white supremacist such as the Michigan Militia’s founder and Pastor Norman Olson, Reverend Richard Girnt Bulter leader of the Idaho-based Aryan Nations’ leader, and Pastor Thom Robbm leader of the Ku Klux Klan. They purposely mask themselves with priestly titles and intend to justify violence while providing a veneer of holiness and sacredness to their organizations. A very horrifying difference between the two lies deep down in their make-up. They claim to be the sympathizers for an already victimized group of people, and declare to be the defenders of an aggrieved class of people for whose cause they are speaking for. However, on the other hand, the religious terrorists seem to have an underlying selfish cause for which they find complete war a solution. Their acts are not for an audience but for themselves. In addition to this, for them there is no target, if achieved, they will stop terrorizing. For them every person outside their group is a non-believer, infidel, child of Satan or may be mud person, and only their selves are correct and on the right-path. this classification position in their minds the rest of the world as sub human or unworthy of living, thus leading to limitless violence and never ending categories of targets. It is this gruesome perception that brings in terrifying disparity between means and ends. For traditional terrorist their acts of violence are primarily a means for a specific, quantifiable ends whereas for the other violence is an end in itself. All these differences in their perception, leads to an even more horrendous and devastating picture of what violence holds for both the traditional and religious terrorist groups. For the former it is a way to amend the flaws and loopholes in the system or may be the creation of a new system for the betterment of all. However the latter do not find themselves to be the part of the society at all, and claim to be the outsiders, yet wanting to turn the rest according to them or if they not will then disappear them from the face of earth, for they regard them as people belonging to a system worth not preserving. Potential Targets For the conventional terrorism, the targets were those figures the terrorists have their interests vested. This includes terrorist activities at key places like banks, embassies, airline carriers, and govt. official centers, roads through where the officials are to go for a conference or a meeting. It also includes kidnapping of those key figures with whose consent their matters will be resolved. Now with this new face of terrorism, there is not any security anywhere. Places that have been centers of recreational activities are the most risky places today, for the emerging face of terrorism, unlike traditional, targets massive populace to have greater casualties. Shopping malls, coffee shops, play areas, cinema houses; in fact, schools and colleges are not safe as well. Not only the urban areas, but also the sub-urban and rural areas are there targets because these are the places with plantations and vegetation. The terrorists may target these through the spread of pathogens that can wipe out the entire crop causing contagious effects in the surrounding. Weapons of Mass Destruction Non-conventional weapons or the weapons of mass destruction include destruction of masses by means of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons. Chemical agents harm human, animals, and plants as well, by way of producing toxic effects. These include agents like cyanide and the nerve agent sarin. Another type of WMD is biological agents. These are microscopic organisms, produced by living organisms, causing diseases. These include viruses, bacteria, and toxins such as botulinum and ricin. Radiological agents are the radioactive substances that incapable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction, for example cesium-137 and cobalt-60. Last are the nuclear materials that serve as raw materials in the construction of a nuclear-yield device. These include uranium-235 and plutonium. (Cameron, 2000) 1. Chemical Weapons/Warfare (CW) Chemical weapons refer to the use of toxic properties of chemical substances as weapons, against humankind, resulting in killings and if survived then with severe injuries or as in other case incapability of some kind. CW killings are a result of attacks on the nervous system and lungs by release of toxic substances. Some may damage the functioning of human body systems by hindering the body’s capability to absorb oxygen, thus leading to intense suffocation followed by death. Some may also put men into dreadful pain and intense restlessness by producing burns and blisters. Horrendous is the fact that even the symptoms may not even be able to identified until 12 hours of the attack, and may remain in the targeted area for as long as seven days. (WMDC, 2006) Proliferation of such weapons has lead to the presence of a large number of such toxics, mostly of which is easily as well s readily available. In the 20th and 21st century, there was a use of approximately 70 different chemicals. With some variations though, there are four major classifications of these inert agents. These are nerve, blood, blister and pulmonary. This classification is because of to what body part or system they prove out to be fatal. They further classify into persistent and non-persistent. Persistent in nature are those that, once released, remains in the targeted area from as long as a week to several weeks, whereas non-persistent agents may stay in the area from few minutes up to few hours. Agents affecting the nervous system, by either preventing the breakdown of neurotransmitter or inactivating essential enzyme known as acetyl-cholinesterase are, Cyclosarin, Sarin, Soman, Tabun, VX, VR, some insecticides and novichok agents. Other than VX, all others are non-persistent. While VX reacts with the body by means of contact at a rate of 2 to 18 hours, the rest turn into vapors within few seconds to few minutes and become hazardous via inhalation. Signs of their reaction include as typical as blurred vision, headache, nausea, sweating, and diarrhea to as atypical as muscle twitching, seizures, and loss of consciousness. Another class of agent that affects the body by means of blood includes most Arsines, Cyanogen-chloride, and Hydrogen cyanide. While arsines cause breaking of blood cells that may lead to kidney failure, the other two hinders oxygen absorption by blood cells. These are non-persistent and react on immediate onset with blood via inhalation. The agents that affect the body by means of blisters and burns are Sulfur mustard, Nitrogen mustard, Lewisite and Phosgene oxime. They are acid producing persistent substances that damage the skin, eye and the respiratory system on contact. Last amongst the four classes are those that affect the pulmonary system, and are Chlorine, Hydrogen chloride, Nitrogen oxides and Phosgene. Though it is non-persistent in nature, the survivals, if any, may suffer from chronic respiratory problems. Other than these four classes, there are agents such as tear gas and pepper spray that causes severe viciousness to the eyes and temporary blindness. Other than these, an extremely persistent incapacitating Agent 15 stays with the soil, water or land for a very long time and has long lasting hazardous effect. Lastly, there are non-living cytotoxic proteins, Ricin and Abrin that inhibit protein formation and are slightly persistent due to their quick degradation in environment. Dispersion is the technique by means of which chemical agents reach their targets. This involves munitions, bombs, projectiles, spray tanks, and warheads. Developed in 1920s another technique for the delivery of CW is thermal dissemination, which takes place by means of explosives. Along with the agent, a central burster charger, inside a projectile shell, is present in a thermal dissemination device. On the detonation of the burster, the agent releases sideways. Another type of dissemination, originated in mid 1960s, takes place via aerodynamics. This is a non-explosive delivery from an aircraft and the most recent as well as major development in CW dissemination. In order to access these toxic chemical agents, terrorists either may produce them themselves or may also break-in to industries, stocks, or shipments. One of the most disturbing cases of terrorism happened to occur in 1995 when Aum Shinrikyo made use of sarin nerve gas and attacked Tokyo subway, a horrendous act, that lead to 12 causalities and thousands of injuries. Since getting hold of such chemicals or making them is much easier than delivering them in an effective enough way to kill large populace, the potential targets for terrorist groups are those civilian industries that either make use of or produce these intoxicants in huge amounts, consequently leading to the release of these toxics without having much to do. (WMDC, 2006) Targets for the terrorist activities can be exposing to chemical intoxicants through a number of ways. In 1999, there was an attempted acquisition of chemical weapons by Osama bin laden and al-Qaida, reported to have tried to develop them in Sudan laboratories. Supposedly, he even succeeded to attain them as well. (Ackerman, 2002) On 4 January, in the jail of Itagui, Colombia, the authorities found cyanide-laced bullets containing ammunition near the cells of commanders of the National Liberation Army (ELN) or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC). In February the same year, information received indicated that the FARC planned to put three hostages in Colombia, to death by way of cyanide. Same year another incident happened to be a bank robbery in Chicago, Illinois. The man who robbed claimed to have a bomb containing sarin. Later the same year in December, there was another case of use of cyanide. The terrorists made use of a water cooler and instilled potassium cyanide. After drinking which, seven students at a law school in Springfield, Massachusetts, became ill. (Cameron, 2000) For the development of chemical weapons, many basic chemicals are readily available for commercial purposes such as plastics, dyes, inks, pesticides, paper, insecticides, detergents, pigments, gold recovery, fire retardants, pharmaceuticals, ceramics, paint solvent etc. and act as feed materials, except nerve gas, which is though not available for purchase yet its manufacturing is spreading. Not only the organic chemists and chemical engineers available, the design & engineering knowledge are widely published as well. Most of the equipment required fro the storage have legitimate industrial applications. (U.S. Congress, 1993) Since a CW agent has to be toxic enough to produce large number of causalities and so it needs to be both thermally and mechanically stable enough to survive long hours before dissemination. A number of chemical additives added to allow long-term storage include; stabilizers such as amines that impedes the degradation of CW agent in hot temperatures, freezing point depressants that aids by lowering the freezing point of liquid agents for their use in winter conditions as well, carriers that increase the concentration of less volatile agents such as sulfur mustard. Germany during the Second World War made use of silica powder for the spread of mustard agents as potential carriers, producing a big dust cloud that causes more grave and rapid deaths than droplets of liquid agent. These weapons are intensely toxic and lethal beyond one’s imagination. There are two chief categories of chemical intoxicants, i.e. fluoroacetates compounds and organophosphorous compounds, out of which the latter is more lethal than the former. (Mullen, 1978) One type of such compound is most toxic of commercially available an insecticide, that is the organophosphate TEPP. The nerve agent sarin is ten times as toxic as TEPP, when taken orally and VX is even more lethal than that. When inhaled it is ten times more toxic than sarin and 300 times more in case of dermal contact, in fact the amount of VX if placed on the head of a pin, is sufficient to put a human to death. There are a number of past events with successful use of chemical weapons. In the years 1977 to 1979, the Palestinian terrorists contaminated the citrus fruits exports to Europe, purportedly by means of injecting the poison beneath the surface of the fruits. The discovery of these poisoned oranges was in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Sweden, and the UK. In 1994, New York, nine soldiers and sic civilians died after drinking champagne having cyanide, suspected to be a terrorist action against Russian Servicemen. (Gray, 2007) It is likely that the use of chemical warfare will increase in near future. If terrorists will manufacture or try to acquire them they are more likely to opt for chemical agents rather than biological or nuclear. This is certainly a real and a growing threat for all. For some in fact the use of CW from a terrorist standpoint is to be a virtual necessity. Therefore, terrorists are more likely to rely on them in the near future. 2. Biological Weapons/Warfare (CW) Biological warfare or the germ warfare is the use of microscopic pathogens with an intention to kill or seriously hamper an individual or in other cases entire cities. Although this is also a military technique used by countries, its furtive use can take the shape of bio terrorism. Functionally, these biological toxic weapons attack human cells and organs and impair the normal functioning of the body. (Kortepeter, 2000) In case of intentions other than causing human losses directly, then the targets are the livestock and large crop areas to hamper the livelihood, health and the economy in a larger frame. Amongst innumerable biological weapons, some are contagious while others affect only in case of direct contact. Toxins like botulimum toxin are deadly even in infinitesimal quantities. (WMDC, 2006) The four kinds of biological warfare agents or bio-weapons are bacteria, viruses, rickettsiae, and fungi. These have a characteristic mechanism of reproducing inside their host victims and thus become more infectious consequently having horrendous multiplier effect. However, toxins do not reproduce in the victim but incubate for smallest periods in the victim’s body and then kill within a few hours. (Gray, 2007) Pathogens turned into weapons include anthrax, ebola, Marburg virus, plague, cholera, tularemia, brucellosis, Q fever, machupo, Coccidioides mycosis, Glanders, Melioidosis, Shigella, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, typhus, Psittacosis, yellow fever, Japanese B encephalitis, Rift Valley fever and smallpox (Alibek, 1999) (Schaad, 1999). According to the final report on ‘Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Arms’ by WMDC, there isn’t any state that claims or acknowledges any sort of possession of bio-weapons or of any programs or plans to develop such weapons. However, what is important to note is that the very nature of these agents makes their production easy and tricky to detect, which means despite the denial from nation-states there is a possibility of their production under the cover, “a risk of a surprise appearance of a new bio-weapon” (WMDC, 2006) According to the Office of Technology Assessment, feed materials for such weapons are readily available both locally and internationally. There is not any need for a refined research when the industrial microbiological workforce is widely available. With widely published designing and engineering knowledge, widely available equipments for commercial use and possibility of large-scale production even with small-scale facilities, the plant construction, operation and storage for such weapons is no more difficult. In fact, for a large armory the cost will be not more than 10 million dollars. One such event happened to occur in 1971 with the outbreak of small pox in Aralsk. It was quite surprising for the whole word because of its already done termination years ago in 1936. In 1980 with the collaboration of World Health Organization, a global vaccination campaign eradicated the disease entirely from earth. Since, a small amount of the contagious small pox and variola virus is still present in few laboratories so as the risk of its stealing and access to terrorist some how again in the future. In fact, states like North Korea and Iraq with proliferation intents may purportedly have illegal stocks of the virus. (Tucker, 2002) Besides this bio warfare incident, largely the belief is that not many such incidents were recorded, or to put it other way, there may have been incidents but not much evidence to prove it a terrorist activity. According to some experts, on the same lines, there are many purported cases of bioterrorism but it is hard to find proofs. (Alibek, 1999) Moreover, one must be cautious of the fact that incidents went unreported because they were not properly recognized. However, for Brad Roberts there seem no documented instances of successful biological weapon attack by terrorists. Past recorded incidents ranges from mere threats of using BW agents to unsuccessful and successful attempts of acquiring them to unsuccessful attempt of use as well as successful use of them. Recorded data reveals there have been innumerable threats about the use of anthrax. The places that received threat in the month of January (Alibek, 1999) were store in Victorville, California, medical center in Ocala, Florida, a high school in Anaheim, California, a car dealer on Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles, and the City Hall switchboard in Tualatin, Oregon. Various other were retail stores in Cathedral City; a company in Alden, New York, a hospital in Sierra Madre, California, food market in East Aurora New York and central switchboard of the West Seneca, New York. (Casagrande, 2000) Besides, there were incidents that went successful. Experts cite that one such incident happened to occur in September 1984. The Rajneesh faction outside of Antelope, Oregon contaminated salad bars with Salmonella typhi (typhoid) in local restaurants of The Dalles, Oregon, which resulted in the poisoning of 750 people. It is purported that the purpose behind was to influence the outcome of a local election. HIV is one of the most horrifying bioweapon. A 34-year old widow living in Nakhon Nayok, Muang district of China, died out of AIDS. She went wild and tried to infect about twenty police officers as well as politicians with HIV. (Cameron, 2000) 3. Nuclear Weapons (NW) Nuclear weapons are explosives that functions by the destructive processes of either fission or the combination of both fission and fusion. (Blair, 2001) These weapons exterminate human existence by effect of heat, blast, and radiation. These are so disastrous that not even all the conventional bombs of World War II can match the explosive force of nuclear weapons in one submarine. One such intensive explosion killed a populace of about two million civilians in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. (WMDC, 2006) According to WMDC report, there are about 12000 nuclear weapons installed in active service, out of which 90% are in the armory of United States and Russia. Moreover, in all there are five states to the NPT having nuclear weapons: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. India and Pakistan are amongst those non-NPT states who have conducted and declared the possession of nuclear weapons, North Korea also claim to possess them however Israel has not made any such claims but it is likely that they hold such weapons. (2006) The feed material required for the production of nuclear weapons include Uranium ore whose oxide is widely available, however plutonium and partly enriched uranium are mostly under international safeguards. Definitely, its production as well as maintenance requires a lot of fine expertise both scientific and technical. As for costs, not only the plant construction and operation are expensive, but quite challenging too. The overall cost for one bomb per year is about $200 million, and for large-scale production, it can raise up to 10 to 50 times the cost, that at no surety of success. (Spector, 2001) The first method of delivery and still a probable form of attack is a gravity bomb, dropped from a bomber aircraft on its first launch. (Sokov, 2002) Other modes of delivery after the dawn of miniaturization are strategic bombs and tactical fighter-bombs. However, from a long-term perspective nuclear weapons mounted onto a missile are more preferable. It can make use of a ballistic trajectory to set free a nuclear warhead over the prospect. Other modes of delivery include artillery shells, land mines, nuclear depth charges, torpedoes, atomic mortar, suitcase bombs etc. (Hansen, 1995) There is a detailed data available on the acquisition and use of WMD by Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden. According to Israeli military intelligence report, dated 16 September 1998, Bin Laden has supposedly paid over two million British Pounds to an intermediary in Kazakhstan for the acquisition of a "suitcase" bomb. (Colvin, 1998) Reported in 2001, according to a French expert, Bin Laden supposedly obtained seven uranium bars made in US. (Tizghart, 2001) In an undisclosed interview with Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir, Ayman al-Zawahiri supposedly claimed the possession of nuclear weapon by al-Qaeda, bought in Central Asia. He further told that al-Qa’ida sent his representatives to Moscow, Tashkent and in Central Asia for the purchase of portable nuclear material. (Salim, 2001) An anonymous French anti-terrorism expert reported that Bin Laden purportedly have bought forty-eight suitcase nukes from the Russian mafia. Besides the cases of Bin Laden, there are reports that in the month of March 1999, Vladimir Mikhaylin and Oleg Tikhonov, from Kaluga, Russia, sent threatening letters by means of Internet to around 20 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel, threatening nuclear strikes against these states. (McCloud, 2001) Same year in the month of June and July, Chechens also threatened to attack a nuclear power plant and other nuclear facilities in Russia. (Cameron, 2000) This was the detailed review of all the three weapons of mass destruction held by terrorist groups. Each has different material requirements and varies in their probable form of attacks. Despite formation of a number of treatises, accessing and proliferation of these warfare weapons under the cover is no more as difficult as it used to be. From acquisition to storage to actual use of the weapons, each step requires different technicalities, some being readily available and some not. As for potential targets, since the intentions of terrorist groups today are neither limited nor quantifiable, therefore even their intended targets are losing its count. Certainly, this provide with an even fiercer picture of terrorism than before, or in other words we are now in a period that possess a real intensively terrifying face of terrorism. References Ackerman, Gary A. (2002). Al-Qaida and Weapons of Mass Destruction. 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