Peak Oil Issue in Urban Planning in the Developing World - Essay Example

and Number of the Teacher’s ‘Peak Oil’ Issue in Urban Planning in the Developing World Introduction Land-use patterns are changing with increasing numbers of the world’s population of over 6.7 billion living in urban rather than rural areas. “Global oil production peaks between sometime between 2006 and 2018” (Huddart and Stott 873) according to M. King Hubbert’s theory. Hence, this maximum production of oil is known as Hubbert’s Peak. This will be followed by a gradual decline in the world’s oil production. Additionally, there is a reduction in the discovery of new oil fields and the quantity of oil extracted from them, mainly because most of the potentially oil rich regions have already been explored, and also due to legislation concerning the preservation of land with natural beauty or heritage value. The irreversible decline in oil production will cause adverse impacts in the global economy, “recession, food shortages and wars and conflicts over the remaining oil supplies” (Huddart and Stott 873). By the year 2030, it is predicted that while city dwellers in developed countries would have increased by 20%, the urban population in developing countries would have more than doubled to around 4 billion people, leading to overcrowding in several cities. Thesis Statement: The purpose of this paper is to examine ‘peak oil’, and investigate the reasons and the ways in which the developing world includes this in urban planning. It is Essential for Urban Planning in Developing Countries to Consider the Impending Phenomenon of ‘Peak Oil’ In contemporary society there is a heavy dependence on oil for transportation, in industry, and in other requirements for liquid fossil fuels. “China, India and other countries are rapidly increasing their consumption while production from known oil fields is peaking” (Wissler 80). Kenneth S. Deffeyes (23) raises a controversial perspective based on geology and mathematics; he considers it improbable that additional major oilfields now remain undiscovered, and predicts increasingly difficult economic, social and political conditions particularly for regions most dependent on oil, specifically imported oil. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other exporters of oil will be able to charge high rates to fulfill the demands for the commodity, resulting in steep oil price hikes followed by greater chaos than similar occurrences in 1973 and 1979. The problem of ‘peak oil’ is also related to the issue of global warming. When oil production peaks and starts declining, it will be necessary to use other substitutes besides renewable resources examined above, such as coal. This will be necessary to power electric and hybrid vehicles and as the material converted into diesel fuel. These processes producing carbon dioxide will increase air and water pollution, and adversely affect climate change. “Therefore, a potential effect of climate change is increased environmental damage and more rapid climate change” (Grant 5). Long-term, serious shortages of fossil-fuel supply is not considered likely, once other fossil fuels’ interconvertible use with oil is established. “Even the arrival of ‘peak oil’, the point at which production reaches a maximum – would not mean a global energy shortage at today’s prices” (Lackner and Sachs 217). However, it is necessary that public policy should include the transition from oil to other sources of liquid fuel which will require a significant lead time and engineering. Environmental concerns will rise, relating to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide acting as a greenhouse gas. Despite using low-cost, realistic technologies to eliminate the carbon challenge through carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and converting vehicles to cost-effective hybrid models, atmospheric carbon concentrations will continue to rise because of increasing economic growth. Hence, measures have to be taken to reduce atmospheric pollution while investigating new energy resources for the future. Legislation Supporting the Development of Renewable Energy Resources Dieter Holm and Jennifer McIntosh (56) state that in developing countries improved access to clean modern energy is the first measure towards poverty reduction, and a key to fulfilling the United Nations Development Goals. The International Solar Energy Society (ISES) white papers on renewable energy policy measures and incentives assert the requirement to organise a Renewable Energy (RE) transition in the developing world. The ISES emphasizes that for achieving effective outcomes, renewable energy transition should be immediate, rapid and orderly, and based on national policies and international cooperation, states Van Staden (1). According to the ISES (6), a summary of its policies include first, the establishment of transparent, consistent, long-term targets and regulatory frameworks. This policy states that the Kyoto Protocol provides distinctive opportunities of integrating development and energy aims. Further, a national and regional Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency White Paper guides other stakeholders in the public and private sectors, and draws investors both at national and international levels. Integrated resource planning, including the sub-categories of Integrated Regional, National, Provincial and Local Energy Planning are mandatory for achieving energy transformation. Second policy is that governments have the power as well as the obligation to provide projects with financial interventions and incentives. Third, the government is responsible for developing renewable energy technology. Fourth, the greatest part of public energy research, development and demonstration should be allocated to energy efficiency and renewable energy, with a focus on building new longterm infrastructure such as transport, buildings and distributed cogeneration. Lastly, the policy to ensure that change to sustainable energy systems is broadbased; this requires the sustained participation and commitment of all key stakeholders. Promoting Renewable Energy Resources in the Developing Countries To prevent further environmental damage and to meet the energy needs of developing nations sustainably, it is essential to investigate alternative energy sources. Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, modern biomass, tidal power besides geothermal energy or heat recovered from within the earth’s crust have to be built up, and energy efficiency enhanced (Deffeyes 176). Other renewable energy resources are temperature variations between ocean surfaces and depths, small hydropower installations, biomethanation and biomass crops grown for energy use (Ottinger and Williams 334). Governmental legislation needs to shift away from investing more heavily in increasingly expensive fossil fuels, towards developing renewable, alternative energy sources. According to Deffeyes (176), these measures alone will be inadequate; hence nuclear energy would be essential. Contrastingly, Richard L. Ottinger and Rebecca Williams argue that nuclear energy would not be a development option because of its “high capital and operating costs, complex technical requirements for operation and maintenance, and unresolved problems of proliferation and waste disposal” (332). Traditional energy market relationships are challenged by the growing demand in emerging economies of the developing world, with the approaching peak of global oil production. Natural disasters and other recent events cause additional disruptions, fluctuations and uncertainty in energy markets. Farina (12) proposes “a modeling approach to comprehending and predicting the impacts of these combined factors in the context of turbulent market conditions”. With biomass ethanol as example, the author used the Generalized Network (GN) methodology in creating the PETNET model. The PETNET model studies the evaluation of biomass technologies for replacement of hydrocarbon-based technologies in the fuel and petrochemical industries, taking into consideration raw dollar comparative costs. For resolving the problem of alternative fuel technologies, it was the first time that powerful high speed GN algorithms were used. The Generalized Network (GN) model indicates global crude oil flows under different supply, demand, refining capacity, price, and buying capacity circumstances. Additionally, the model is capable of analyzing any or all of the variables concurrently; both in the context of existing as well as hypothesized alternative fuel technology, resource availability and cost scenarios (Farina 12). Further, the Generalized Network model promotes decision makers’ understanding of the costs of environmental benefits related to ethanol and alcohol fuels. Biomass fuels beneficially return to the atmosphere carbon dioxide only to the extent that the plants from which they are made, consume. The disadvantage of this model is that care needs to be taken in relation to “agricultural practices resulting in erosion, as well as deforestation and food/ fuel tradeoffs” (Farina 20). Renewable energy resources promise to fulfill the energy and development needs of countries across the globe. This is particularly true for developing countries where several areas have not yet committed to fossil fuel dominance. The use of renewable resources has increased significantly over the last decade. Several countries such as India have important renewable installations and programs. As world leader in the use of renewable energy, India has created a Ministry for Non-Conventional Energy Sources (MNES); and “pioneered research in renewable energy applications through its internationally renown TATA Energy Research Institute” (Ottinger and Williams 334). Technology support centres have been developed in India’s universities for providing manufacturers with renewable technology support, and to certify the quality of technology obtained by the government. Further, India has started manufacturing several renewable technologies, while in 1987 the country created a Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) to finance renewable energy products. Additionally, with the Ministry for Non-conventional Energy Sources now functioning under several categories such as urban/ industrial energy, power generation, and rural energy, increased efficiency in departmental operations has been achieved. “Quality control, systems maintenance, and personnel training also have contributed to India’s successes” (Ottinger and Williams 334). However, a significant proportion of India’s energy, like that of most countries, is obtained from coal and large hydroelectric projects. Similar to India, other countries such as Indonesia also have extensive renewable energy programmes. With financial aid from World Bank and Global Environment Facility (GEF) loans, Indonesia has already delivered 200,000 systems to meet its goal of providing one million solar homes. Wind energy as a renewable sustainable energy source for operating factories, for pumping water and other requirements, is based on a “mature, competitive, and virtually pollution-free technology widely used in many areas of the world” (Ottinger and Williams 335). Developing countries receiving substantial amounts of sunlight annually are able to use solar thermal energy advantageously in their domestic, industrial and commercial sectors in urban areas, and also for agriculture in rural areas. Solar energy, often far more efficient than existing power resources, is of great benefit in “water heating, industrial-process heating, drying, refrigeration and air conditioning, cooking, water desalination and purification, pumping and power generation” (Ottinger and Williams 335). Photovoltaic systems are 100 times more efficient than kerosene, and also do not involve the high costs and pollution problems of standard fossil-fueled power plants. Another attractive energy resource for developing countries is biomass used in industry, electricity production, home heating and cooking using efficient modern stoves or those operated on gas. This employs otherwise barren land to grow crops for providing energy feed stocks such as crop wastes and cellulosic biomass, and sustainably uses local feedstocks and labour. For example, Brazil has “pioneered the growth of energy crops of sugar to produce ethanol for use in vehicles, thus halving its oil imports” (Ottinger and Williams 335). Today, the largest renewable energy resource in use is hydroelectricity; this creates environmental problems because the flooding casued by large dams is over wide areas of land, destroying agriculture and relocating people. Carbon dioxide and methane emissions also result from decaying vegetation in the dam water. However, placing generating equipment at existing dams to add power does not impact the environment, and has beneficial consequences worldwide. Run-of-the-river hydroelectric systems and small dams have the potential to minimize the adverse environmental impacts of hydroelectric power production. The most promising alternative fuel for the future is hydrogen. It is generated by solar or wind-powered electrolysis of water, from some seawater algae, or from natural gas using improved, low-cost technology, creating low pollution as compared to oil or coal-fired power plants. It is predicted that in the near future, hydrogen will be used in fuel cells for providing energy to vehicles or stationary electric generators. Added benefits of hydrogen include its pollution-free combustion to produce water, and economical transportation of the gas in pipelines. The main obstacle to extensive use of hydrogen in more regions is the high cost of both hydrogen production and of fuel cells. Further, developing a distribution network and infrastructure for vehicular transportation will involve high capital expenses initially, state Ottinger and Williams (236). Obstacles to the Use of Renewable Energy Resources in Developing Countries There are several hurdles impeding the use of renewable energy supplies from the resources discussed above. These include lack of information and involvement for the public, for project initiators, and managers regarding the availability, costs, and benefits of renewable energy technologies, leading to failure in adapting projects to fulfill the needs of the community in urban and rural areas. Secondly, governments and agencies often fail to assess costs and benefits correctly including hidden costs to society in comparing renewable energy to heavily subsidized traditional energy options. “Pool power dispatchers, utilities, and governmental procurement agencies discriminate against intermittent energy sources such as solar and wind power” (Ottinger and Williams 236), although these resources are frequently available at peak times of power needs. Further, government agencies impose extensive red tape in approval requirements for interconnection of intermittent resources. Government and other regulations fail to acknowledge the support provided by the intermittent resources in peak-load reduction, value added reseller (VAR) support to prevent power surges, lowered emissions, and fuel diversity. Decision makers with a shared financial stake in traditional energy sources promote them. Additionally, sales forces and financial and political power to support renewable resources are absent. Training in installation, operation and maintenance of renewable energy equipment is restricted to a very few, while knowledge and personnel trained in financing mechanisms to assist renewable energy projects is lacking. According to Ottinger and Williams (336), foreign investment and import duties on renewable equipment create another barrier to using the sustainable resources. Moreover, there needs to be research focused on developing renewable technologies and to lower initial costs. Though initial costs of implementing renewable energy resource projects are substantial, all the renewable energy resources are costless fuels requiring low maintenance. Ottinger and Williams (336) reiterate that “in developing countries, financing is required to raise the necessary initial capital for technologies that are not yet commercially competitive”. In spite of the extensive constraints, renewable energy is the fastest growing energy supply resource across the globe. The barriers have been overcome by utilizing the technologically established sustainable and renewable resources in niche applications; they are found to be inexpensive sources of electricity supplying power grids in urban as well as rural settings. Implementation of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) fails to achieve both goals of decreased emissions and sustainable development, but it is evident that a modified formulation of CDM would cost-effectively decrease emission, as well as increase the “flow of technologies and finance to developing countries during the period 2012-2016” (Lloyd and Subbarao 244). For the modified Clean Development Mechanism to fulfill its potential, numerous essential barriers would have to be overcome, particularly the engagement and ability of developing countries to effectively access the carbon market. Conclusion This paper has examined the concept of ‘peak oil’, and investigated why and how the developing countries implement projects to counter the decline of oil supply after its peak production time of 2006 to 2018. It is evident that urban planning in developing nations needs to take into account the peaking of oil and its aftermath. This is because of the high dependence on oil energy for the operation of transportation, industry, domestic use, and various other urban purposes. Developing countries such as India, Brazil, Indonesia etc. are implementing renewable energy projects successfully. It is evident that there are governmental policies both national and international that promote the use of renewable and sustainable energy sources such as solar power, wind energy, biomass and hydrogen and other resources. Supporting the development of renewable energy resources in developing countries has been examined. The Generalized Network (GN) method formed the basis for the PETNET model to determine the effectiveness of alternative fuel technologies in facilitating the transition from the fossil fuel era. Finally, obstacles to the use of renewable energy resources in the developing countries was discussed. Besides necessitating a focus on the development of alternative, renewable and sustainable energy sources, the phenomenon of ‘peak oil’ can also cause global warming due to higher concentrations of carbon dioxide resulting in increased air and water pollution. This is because of the use of oil substitutes other than renewable sources, such as coal. To counter the decline in oil production after ‘peak oil’ occurs, a modified formulation of the Clean Development Mechanism, and further research into new, decarbonized energy systems are required for achieving decreased emissions and sustainable development of renewable energy resources. ------------------------------------- Works Cited Deffeyes, Kenneth S. Hubbert’s peak: The impending world oil shortage. The United States of America: Princeton Unversity Press, 2008. Droege, Peter. Urban energy transition: From fossil fuels to renewable power. The United Kingdom: Elsevier, 2008. 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