Fuel Crisis in Developing Countries Caused by Peak Oil - Report Example

and Number of the Teacher’s Environmental Issue: Fuel Crisis in Developing Countries Caused by ‘Peak Oil’ Introduction Land-use patterns are changing with increasing numbers of the world’s population of over 6.7 billion living in urban rather than rural areas. “Global oil production peaks sometime between 2006 and 2018” (Huddart and Stott 873), according to M. King Hubbert’s theory. This maximum production of oil is known as Hubbert’s Peak or ‘Peak Oil”. After this point there will be a gradual decline in the world’s oil production. By the year 2030, it is predicted that the urban population in developing countries such as China, India, Latin America, Africa, etc. would have more than doubled to over 4 billion people, leading to overcrowding in cities. This far exceeds the expected increase by only 20% among city dwellers in developed nations. Additionally, there is a reduction in the discovery of new oil fields and in the quantity of oil extracted from them. The irreversible decline in oil production will cause fuel scarcity in the developing countries, as well as adverse impacts in the global economy, “recession, food shortages and wars and conflicts over the remaining oil supplies” (Huddart and Stott 873). Thesis Statement: The purpose of this paper is to examine the countering of ‘peak oil’, a critical environmental issue in developing countries related to global warming, through promoting the use of alternative, renewable resources. Importance of Countering the Impending Phenomenon of ‘Peak Oil’ There is a heavy dependence on oil for transportation, in industry, and in other requirements for liquid fossil fuels. “China, India and other countries are rapidly increasing their consumption while production from known oil fields is peaking” (Wissler 80), after which oil production will decline. Kenneth Deffeyes raises a controversial perspective based on geology and mathematics, considering it improbable that additional major oilfields now remain undiscovered. It is a matter of concern in global politics, that increasingly difficult economic, social and political conditions will arise, particularly in regions of the developing world most dependent on imported oil. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other exporters of oil will be able to charge high rates to fulfill the demands for the commodity, resulting in steep oil price hikes followed by greater chaos than caused by similar occurrences in 1973 and 1979 (Deffeyes 23). The problem of ‘peak oil’ is related to the issue of global warming. When oil production peaks and starts declining, it is vital to promote clean urban development through the use of other substitutes besides renewable resources such as coal. This will be necessary to power electric and hybrid vehicles, and as the material converted into diesel fuel. The processes producing carbon dioxide will increase air and water pollution, and adversely affect climate change. “Therefore, a potential effect of climate change is increased environmental damage and more rapid climate change” (Grant 5). Long-term, serious shortages of fossil-fuel supply is not considered likely, once other fossil fuels’ interconvertible use with oil is established. “Even the arrival of ‘peak oil’, the point at which production reaches a maximum – would not mean a global energy shortage at today’s prices” (Lackner and Sachs 217). However, public policy should include the transition from oil to other sources of liquid fuel, which will require a significant lead time and engineering. Environmental concerns will rise, relating to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide acting as a greenhouse gas. Despite using low-cost, realistic technologies to eliminate the carbon challenge through carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and converting vehicles to cost-effective hybrid models, atmospheric carbon concentrations will continue to rise because of increasing economic growth. Hence, measures have to be taken to reduce atmospheric pollution while investigating new energy resources (Lackner and Sachs 217). Promoting Renewable Energy Resources in the Developing Countries To prevent further environmental damage and to meet the energy needs of developing nations sustainably, it is essential to investigate alternative energy sources. Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, modern biomass, tidal power besides geothermal energy or heat recovered from within the earth’s crust have to be built up, and energy efficiency enhanced (Deffeyes 176). Governmental legislation needs to shift away from investing more heavily in increasingly expensive fossil fuels, towards developing renewable, alternative energy sources. However, the use of nuclear energy would not be a development option because of its “high capital and operating costs, complex technical requirements for operation and maintenance, and unresolved problems of proliferation and waste disposal” (Ottinger and Williams 332). Traditional energy market relationships are challenged by the growing demand in emerging economies of the developing world, with the approaching peak of global oil production. Natural disasters and other recent events cause additional disruptions, fluctuations and uncertainty in energy markets. Farina (12) proposes “a modeling approach to comprehending and predicting the impacts of these combined factors in the context of turbulent market conditions”. With biomass ethanol as example, the author used the Generalized Network (GN) methodology in creating the PETNET model. The PETNET model studies the evaluation of biomass technologies for replacement of hydrocarbon-based technologies in the fuel and petrochemical industries, taking into consideration comparative costs (Farina 12). Renewable energy resources promise to fulfill the energy and development needs of countries across the globe. They are vital for developing countries where several areas have not yet committed to fossil fuel dominance. The use of renewable resources has increased significantly over the last decade. Several developing countries such as India have important renewable installations and programs. As world leader in the use of renewable energy, India has created a Ministry for Non-Conventional Energy Sources (MNES); and “pioneered research in renewable energy applications through its internationally renown TATA Energy Research Institute” (Ottinger and Williams 334). The most promising alternative fuel for the future is hydrogen. It is generated by solar or wind-powered electrolysis of water, from some seawater algae, or from natural gas using improved, low-cost technology, creating low pollution as compared to oil or coal-fired power plants. It is predicted that in the near future, hydrogen will be used in fuel cells for providing energy to vehicles or stationary electric generators. Added benefits of hydrogen include its pollution-free combustion to produce water, and economical transportation of the gas in pipelines. The main obstacle to extensive use of hydrogen in more regions is the high cost of both hydrogen production and of fuel cells. Further, developing a distribution network and infrastructure for vehicular transportation will involve high capital expenses initially, state Ottinger and Williams (236). Conclusion This paper has examined the concept of ‘peak oil’, and identified the need for developing countries to implement urban planning projects and formulate legislation to counter the decline of oil supply after its peak production time of 2006 to 2018. ‘Peak Oil’ and its aftermath is of critical significance to the rapidly growing urban populations of developing countries. This is because of their high dependence on oil energy for the operation of transportation, for industry, domestic use, and other urban purposes. It is evident that there are governmental policies both national and international that promote the use of renewable and sustainable energy sources such as solar power, wind energy, biomass and hydrogen and other resources. Supportive legislation should ensure the growth of renewable energy resources in developing countries. Thus, the phenomenon of ‘peak oil’ increases global warming due to higher concentrations of carbon dioxide resulting in increased air and water pollution. This is caused by the use of oil substitutes other than renewable sources, such as coal. It is concluded that a focus on the development of alternative, renewable and sustainable energy sources is crucial. These measures will help to ensure urban planning based on clean strategies, with decarbonized energy systems for achieving decreased vehicular and industrial emissions and pollution, as well as preservation of natural resources. Works Cited Deffeyes, Kenneth S. Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. The United States of America: Princeton Unversity Press, 2008. Farina, Ronald F. Geopolitical Factors and Increasingly Turbulent Supply and Demand Scenarios in Energy Markets: Modeling Rejuvenated Interest in Biomass Energy Sources. Journal of Global Business and Technology, 2.1 (2006), 12-23. Grant, Lyle K. Peak Oil as a Behavioral Problem. Behavior and Social Issues, 16.1 (2007), 65-88. Huddart, D and Tim Stott. Earth Environments: Past, Present and Future. New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons, 2010. Lackner, Klaus S and Jeffrey D. Sachs. A Robust Strategy for Sustainable Energy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2 (2005), 215-285. Ottinger, Richard L. and Rebecca Williams. Renewable Energy Resources for Development. Environmental Law, 32.2 (2002), 331-353. Wissler, John B. Achieving Balance. Air and Space Power Journal, 23.4 (2009), 80-90. Read More