The Impact Of Global Warming On Developing Countries - Essay Example

The Impact of global warming on developing Countries Introduction: The concept of global warming was initiated in 1896 when a Swedish scientist put forth the position that burning of fossil fuels causes accumulation of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere, which in turn creates a “greenhouse effect” and elevation of global temperatures. In the 1950s, G.S. Callender highlighted the dangers of the greenhouse effect, prompting increased research into the phenomenon (Weart 2003). Weather models developed in the 1960s for the study of weather revealed that the slightest changes in climate could disturb the delicate balance and set off catastrophic effects. This also led to the discovery that the levels of certain gases were rising, degrading the fragile ozone layer in the atmosphere. Concerns about global warming escalated after the summer of 1988, which was the hottest one on record, and temperatures have been rising steadily since. According to Reid Bryson, “the climactic world is one world even if politically we are not.” (Testimony 1997). Weather is truly international, but during the earlier part of the 1900s weather had low priority. Meteorologists and scientists of various countries banded together under the umbrella of the IGY (International Geophysical Year). Drilling of the ice caps commenced in Greenland, yielding the discovery that ice cores held a record of climactic history. This later led to the formation of the GARP (Global Atmospheric research program) which was headed by the Swedish meteorologist Bert Bolin, devoted to weather forecasting and the study of the steadily rising curve of atmospheric Carbon dioxide. Weart (2003) provides a detailed discussion of the phenomenon of climactic changes and the conflicting predictions of scientists on global warming and cooling. He details the IPCC reports of 1995 and 1997, wherein scientific experts predicted that by the middle of the 21st century, the temperature of the world would have increased between 1.5 to 4.50C, figures which have been recently revised upwards to as much as 5.50C.(Weart 2003). Rising demand for energy: Global warming has been directly linked to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases. The Earth is warmed by the radiant heat from the rays of the sun, which is generally equal to the amount of energy that is radiated back from the Earth in the form of infra red radiation. Thus the temperature of the Earth remains constant. However, the temperature of the Earth is directly dependent upon the composition of its atmosphere and when there is an excess of carbon dioxide and similar gases in the atmosphere, it blocks the infra red radiation from the surface of the Earth, trapping heat in the lower atmosphere and creating a "greenhouse effect" which increases global temperatures Rapid industrialization has resulted in increased energy use, with the resultant multiplication of carbon dioxide emissions. According to Roberts (2004), energy demand in countries like India, China and Brazil is developing so fast that it may double by 2020, while in the developed countries, the demand for power is fast outstripping supply, raising the specter of blackouts. In fact Roberts (2004) also points out that “China has seen dramatic increases in its energy consumption in recent years (pp. 143–145). In the words of one scientist; “Chinas rapid industrialization has led to upward revision of predictions... While previously we thought in terms of doubling the strength of the CO2 content of the pre industrial atmosphere, current thought is moving toward a tripling” (Broecker 1586). Currently, America generates one quarter of the emissions that are the cause of global warming. It has been estimated that U.S. related carbon dioxide emissions in 2001 were 5692 million metric tons, while total world emissions were estimated to be 23,899 million metric tons, with the United States comprising about 24% of the world total. (www.eia.doe.gov). World emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to rise from 24,409 million metric tons in 2002 to 33,284 million metric tons in 2015, while the acceptable levels for carbon dioxide emissions are in the range of 15,000 to 17,000 million metric tones, which exceed 1990 levels by 81 percent. But the current pattern of emissions, which places the developed countries on the top of the environmental polluters, is likely to shift, since developing countries like India and China are waking up to their need for “energy” in order to achieve rapid industrialization. They can hardly afford the development of “clean” energy, hence the tendency that will prevail is for them to use materials such as coal which are cheap and easily available. This will only increase the problem of global warming, by escalating the smog and pollution in the atmosphere and contributing heavily to increased carbon dioxide levels. Coal emits much more carbon dioxide than even natural gas or oil. Oil and gas reserves on the planet are being depleted quickly. The current crisis in the Middle East is the direct result of America’s struggle to find and capture the remaining sources of oil. Paul Roberts(2004) believes that the race for the few remaining large reserves of oil and natural gas is likely to be the most critical geopolitical theme of the 21st century. America has set up military bases in African countries such as Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad in order to protect its oil interests in that region. There is a similar oil war going on in the developing world, as China and Japan battle to grab the existing oil reserves available in the Siberian region. China has emerged as the second largest oil user after the United States and it has been involved in a stiff, diplomatic battle with Japan over access to the big oil fields in Siberia. Japan depends entirely on imported oil and it has been lobbying with Russia for a 2300 mile pipeline from Siberia to coastal Japan, offering to finance the $5 billion pipeline with additional investments of $7 billion to develop the fields and $2 billion to finance Russia’s social projects. Simultaneously China is pushing for a 1,400 mile pipeline due south from the same oil fields to Daqing. It has also approached the Saudis to try and grab some of the oil resources there by offering in exchange, sophisticated missiles and weaponry which America and the United States have refused to sell to Saudi Arabia. Measures to address the problem of global warming and depletion of energy resources: Roberts (2004) points to the fact that geologists, industry analysts and several oil and government officials believe that oil may peak as early as 2005, since it is after all a finite resource. Optimists on the other hand, foresee a peak only by 2035. Since human history shows that human societies have needed about fifty years on an average to shift from one source of energy to the other, it is vital that alternative energy sources such as hydrogen cells, solar energy or renewable energy sources are established before the oil runs out and a global crisis occurs. The Kyoto protocol, mooted in 1997 and effective from 2004, is the first step towards limiting greenhouse emissions. But, developing countries such as China which are rich in coal, are reluctant to comply with the regulations until their economies have caught up with the developed countries. This has given rise to issues of fairness and the power play struggles between the developed and the developing nations.(Weart 2003). Paul Roberts(2004) states; “Whether we blame American energy politics on the people or their politicians, its plain that U.S. energy policies will have tremendous impact on the evolution of the global energy economy" (p. 305). As oil and natural gas reserves are depleted, the world is faced with a serious energy crisis unless effective measures are implemented immediately. Both Roberts and Weart recommend the development of alternative energy resources which are renewable, rather than continuing to rely upon coal, oil and natural gas with their consequent damaging effects upon the environment. Developing countries such as China, India and the African countries need to re-assess their energy policies, so that in the race for development, the future of the planet itself is not threatened. Solar energy is an abundant energy source and the developing countries could divert their resources in developing solar energy as an alternative source of power. An environmental survey carried out by the United Nations to map the solar and wind resources of 13 countries has identified thousands of megawatts of potential renewable energy available in Asia, Africa and South America.(www.ale-e.blogspot.com), while China alone has potential for generation of 100,000 megawatts of power. The challenge with wind power is that it is available only when the wind blows, while solar energy is available only through the day, but they are cost effective sources of energy that can be developed by the third world countries. Roberts (2004) believes that the best solution in the interim is energy efficiency, especially for countries such as the United States and China. He advocates this as the best way to reduce reliance on carbon while alternative sources of energy are developed. Included in his repertoire of alternative energy sources are hydrogen cells, decarbonized coal, liquefied natural gas, wind, sunlight and hydrogen, all of which will help to reduce the dependence on oil. He examines the possibilities and pitfalls in all these sources, including hybrid cars, hydrogen fuel cells, carbon sequestering and the possibility of biotechnological solutions Developing nations also possess vast reserves of forest wealth which need to be protected. Biodiesel in particular could prove to be an effective replacement for the current petroleum based fuels because it can replace the petroleum diesel without engine modification and it is available from a plant known as jatorpha available in plenty in India.. Hydropower is another potential source of large supplies of electricity which can be used to power and fuel various activities, especially in developing countries, together with tidal power and biogas. References: “Alternative energy in developing countries: New U.N. Report.” [Online] Available at: http://alt-e.blogspot.com/2005/04/alternative-energy-in-developing.html; accessed 12/5/2005. Broecker, Wallace S. (2004). “Thermohaline Circulation, the Achilles Heel of Our Climate System: Will Man-Made CO2 Upset the Current Balance?" Science 278, pp 1582-88 * Bryson, Reid. testimony on May 26, 1976, United States Congress (95:1) Senate, Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, Subcommittee on Science, Technology and Space (1977). The National Climate Program Act: Hearings. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, p 217 Energy Information Administration report (2003). "Emissions of Greenhouse gases in the United States in 2003" [Online] Available at:http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/emission.html; accessed 12/5/2005 Roberts, Paul (2004). “The end of Oil: On the edge of a perilous new world.” Houghton Mifflin Weart, Spencer (2003). “The Discovery of Global Warming” Harvard University Press. Read More