Impact of Global Warming on the Tourism - Literature review Example

Impact of Global Warming Research on climate change has been conducted for decades but studies have been inconclusive about the magnitude of its effects. However, in recent times there is a growing consensus that greenhouse gas emissions precipitated by human activity will lead to higher temperatures (Deschenes and Greenstone 2006). The main source of greenhouse gas emissions arise from human-induced activities and include electricity generation, land-use charges, agriculture and transport of which transport and electricity are the fastest growing sources (Stern 2006). The global mean temperature has increased between 0.6 - 1°C in the past 100 years and is expected to further increase up to 5.8° by 2100 (Burki, Elsasser & Abegg, 2003). The two main periods of global warming have been between 1910 and 1945 and 1976 onwards (Walther et al 2002). The effect of global warming will be stronger in the northern hemisphere which means summer season will be longer. Global Emissions of Greenhouse emissions by source Source: Stern (2006) Pollution, deforestation and soil loss have changed the natural habitat and global warming has resulted in melting glaciers, ice cap, while also causing heat waves, extreme summer temperatures and coral reef bleaching across the globe (Worboys and De Lacy 2003). Some potential impacts of global warming could be irreversible such as the melting of permafrost which is expected to release huge quantities of methane (Stern 2006). Growth and climate change are inter-related. However, while the ecological footprint is expected to be adversely affected, the economic impact of global warming does not appear to be negative, according to studies conducted. Based on the findings of French, English and Swiss scientists and physicists, Stern (2006) argues that current greenhouse gas emissions are at a dangerous level and energy related emissions are forecast to grow. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was around 425 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide and this has been increasing by over 2ppm each year. Even if the emissions are stabilized, the sea levels will continue to rise during the 22nd century. While the rich countries are responsible for most of the emissions, its impact will be felt by the developing countries. Climate change can affect prosperity and human development. The developing countries would suffer from drought and flood and would have to deal with these situations despite low incomes. Global climate change has both direct and indirect impact on biodiversity (Sullivan and Clark 2007). The direct effects such as increase in carbon dioxide levels and increased temperature give rise to the indirect impacts such as precipitation and evaporation. These changes impact the biodiversity which means changes in the timings of activities of plans and animals. Recent studies indicate changes in phenology or timing of seasonal activities of plants and animals. Long-term phonological data sets collected from Europe and North America suggest that spring activities such as breeding or first singing of birds, arrival of migrant birds and appearance of butterflies have been occurring progressively earlier (Walther et al 2002). Plant growth in the natural ecosystems has also responded to the atmospheric changes (Hughes 2000). As photosynthesis and respiration are affected by the changing carbon dioxide levels, leaf color changes have shown a progressive delay of 0.3-1.6 days per decade and the length of the growing season has increased in certain areas by 3.6 days per decade in the past 50 years (Walther et al 2002). Changes are also expected on the aquatic and other species dependent on water bodies for breeding and feeding while wetlands are also expected to decrease (Sullivan and Clark 2007). The immediate impact is that fluctuations in water levels within the wetlands will affect the nutrient levels thereby enabling the release of toxins such as mercury. At the same time, changes in the duration of flooding events will lead to fewer breeding sites for waterfowl. Effects of global warming can be seen in the marine system as the availability of planktonic food for fish larvae is reduced which in turn impacts the size of fish populations. In the lake regions, water temperatures are rising and water levels are decreasing. As temperatures rise, the stress of ecosystem will favor vector-borne diseases such as those spread by mosquitoes that are known to have destroyed the population of many bird species (Sullivan and Clark 2007). Coral reefs undergo global mass bleaching events when temperatures rise and such incidences have been increasing in frequency and intensity (Walther et al 2002). Some species of coral reefs are totally eliminated and the changes in the ecosystem changes richness and community structure. Global warming is also causing greater demand for energy and the world energy consumption is expected to increase by 71% between 2003 and 2030 (Sullivan and Clark 2007). This is expected despite rapid growth in renewable energy use. The world demand for energy would be met by renewable energy because of hydroelectric projects in the developing world but the increase in use of renewable energy would be only 1% between 2003 and 2030. Despite scientists and researchers claiming the expected damages to the biodiversity, Biologist Josef Reichholf does not agree that global warming threatens plans and animals with extinction and nor will malaria spread in Europe (Stampf and Traufetter 2007). The scientist’s claim is based on the fact that humans have the ability to create artificial tropical living conditions; the species are not affected by climate change but by destruction of the habitat such as deforestation. Contrary to other scientists, biologist Reichholf believes that warmer temperatures promote biodiversity and the green house effect could help promote biodiversity in the long run. The economic impact of climate change and global warming has been measured by different researchers in different ways. In the field of agriculture, Deschenes and Greenstone (2006) measured the economic impact of climate change on US agricultural land based on a random year-to-year temperature variation and its effect on agricultural profits. The findings of this study contradict the popular view that climate change will lead to negative yield and profits. Based on the long-run climate change predictions from the Hadley 2 Model, Deschenes and Greenstone surmised that climate change will lead to a 3.4% increase in annual profits. This short effect on profits is not due to price increases. The study also concluded that the increase in temperature and precipitation will practically have no effect on yield on the most important crops. The economic impact on climate change and global warming is expected to lead to positive impact on world tourism as well. Tourism in colder countries such as United States, Canada and the Russian Federation would increase (Gosline 2005). A study conducted by the University of Hamburg in Germany modelled the number of tourists visiting 207 countries by 2025. Global warming is expected to bring 30% more tourists to the cold countries. Glaciers are receding in Canada and more of good snow is found higher up on the mountains than was available ten years ago. Thus, as glaciers, melt local economies of those regions have experienced a boost in tourism; hotels and tourists guides too have found increase in their incomes. It thus can be seen that the impact of global warming is yet to be ascertained with definite figures. Asymmetry in the change process makes it difficult to predict definite ecological responses. While changes have occurred in the biodiversity, event from changes in the life patterns of flora and fauna, many of the changes are expected and yet to be confirmed. At the same time, the impact of global warming on agricultural production and on tourism is expected to be positive, yielding better profits to the regions and the concerned economies. Works Cited Bürki, Rolf, Elsasser, Hans and Abegg, Bruno. "Climate Change - Impacts on the Tourism Industry in Mountain Areas." 1st International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism, Djerba, 9-11 April. Website. 2003. Web. 27th May. 2015. . Deschenes, Olivier and Greenstone Michael. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather." CEEPR. Gosline, Anna. "Will global warming impact tourism hotspots?" New Scientist. Website. 2005. 27th May. 2015.. Hughes, Lesley. "Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already." TREE, 15:2 (2000): 57-62 Stampf, Olaf. and Traufetter, Gerald. "German Biologist: Global Warming Is Good For US." Website. 2007. 27th May. 2015. . Stern, Nicholas. "What is the Economics of Climate Change?" WORLD ECONOMICS, 7:2 (2006): 1-10 Sullivan, Robert G. and Clark, Milt. "Can Biodiversity Survive Global Warming?" CW Journal, 5:1 (2007): 1-51 Walther, Gian-Reto et al. "Ecological Responses to recent climate changes." Nature, 416 (2002): 389-395 Worboys, Graeme and De Lacy, Terry. "TOURISM AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IT’S TIME! ." Paper presented to the Ecotourism Australia 11th National Conference. Website. 2003. 27th May. 2015. . Read More