Non-Carbon Fuels - Research Paper Example

Non-Carbon Fuels I. Introduction The issue of energy has always been important. Energy is man’s basic need. Without it, there will no food, clothing and shelter. Without it, there would be no life. In developing sources of energy, we have a choice. The priority can be carbon or fossil sources of energy or non-carbon sources of energy. Which shall it be? This paper argues that our priority must be on non-carbon sources. We have two arguments for this. The first argument is that we have reached the peak of discovering new carbon sources of energy. Carbon or fossil sources of energy are non-renewable. It took several hundreds to several thousands and several millions of years for mother earth to create them. Mother earth may still be producing fossil energy sources even at this time. However, the pace of creating fossil sources of energy is much too slow compared to the speed in the growth of energy demand. It is very likely that we have a wall in developing new sources of fossil energy. The other argument on why we should prioritize on developing non-carbon or non-fossil sources of energy is that fossil or carbon energy has been associated with global warming. Fossil fuels release carbon gases that constitute as important greenhouses gases trapping energy from the sun heating up mother earth. This situation creates global warming. This is dangerous because global warming can kill several thousands or several millions of humanity. We must therefore lessen our dependence on fossil fuels and develop as well as prioritize on non-carbon fuels. This work attempts to elaborate on the two arguments and highlights the need to prioritize on developing non-carbon fuels. Non-carbon fuels must be prioritized because: 1) we have reached a peak of carbon fuel production; and 2) non-carbon fuels can only worsen the state of global warming. II. Demand and Supply Forecasts on Carbon Fuels Figure 1 below reproduces a figure from Long Term World Supply. According to estimates cited by the United States Energy Information Administration, world oil production supply will peak in 2010 and decrease significantly up to year 2150 (10). Figure 1. Forecast on oil production supply up to 2050 Source: Long Term World Oil Supply (12) Although Figure 1 came from a 2004 material of the United States Energy Information Administration (US EIA) in 2004, the predictions were from a 1997 report that the US EIA adopted as a reference. In 1997, the prognosis on global warming was not as popular as they are popular today. Oil production was expected to decrease not as a result of greater awareness on global warming but because oil reserves were perceived to be drying up. Figure 1 that world oil production will reach a peak sometime 2010. From the peak, world oil production would decrease until 2150. The units of the data of Figure 1 are not clear nor indicated but Figure 1 clearly suggests that oil production would be zero in 2150 or around 140 years from now. Thus, based on Figure 1 that translated the forecast figures of a 1997 report into a graph, what is suggested really is that we actually have no choice but to prioritize our search for energy on non-carbon fuels. Table 1. Global Oil Demand and Supply in million barrels a day, 2006-2010 Source: Oil Market Report (52) Table 1 provides credibility to the forecasts made in 1997. Table 1 reflects actual demand and supply figures for oil in terms of million barrels of oil a day for 2006 to 2009. In addition, Table 1 has forecast figures for demand for 2010 but complete forecast figures for oil supply are unavailable. Table 1 indicates that supply of oil barely meets demand. In addition, there are instances wherein supply is not adequate and, presumably, unsatisfied demand had to be addressed by drawing oil not from production but from inventories or stockpiles. Table 1 suggests that because production of oil barely meets demand, current production of oil is unable to build adequate stockpile that will ensure a stable supply of oil in the years to come. Worst, Table 1 indicates that oil production was inadequate to meet demand during the first quarter of 2008, third quarter of 2009, and fourth quarter of 2009. In the first quarter of 2008, demand for oil was 87.4 million barrels per day but production was only 87.0 million barrels. During the third quarter of 2009, demand for oil was 86.1 million barrels a day but supply was only 85.9 million barrels a day. Finally, during the fourth quarter of 2009, demand for oil was 85.0 million barrels a day but supply was only 84.9 million barrels a day. The data even suggest that we have a supply crisis: the most recent data on oil production shows that supply figures fail to cover demand adequately. The data even provide the explanation why the price of oil has been erratic. Just like Figure 1, Table 2 suggests that we have no better alternative but to prioritize on non-carbon fuels in our search for energy supplies. III. Risks of Carbon Fuels to Climate Change The supply and demand figures for oil should provide enough reasons on why we should prioritize on non-carbon fuels: data support the view that sources of carbon fuels are drying up. However, the more important reason on why we should prioritize on non-carbon fuels is this: carbon or fossil fuels have been identified by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as one of the main culprits for the ongoing climate change. If climate change is not moderated, there would be risks to lives and property all over the globe. Carbon in atmosphere that the environment can convert into carbon monoxide or carbon dioxide has been identified as among the greenhouse gases responsible for the ongoing climate change. The climate change can be from two degrees to around seven degrees Celsius average rise in global temperature. The change can melt glaciers, cause a rise and sea levels, submerge islands and localities, cause violent typhoons and tornadoes, and disrupt agriculture in many places on earth. Several agencies have constructed their forecasts and estimated losses in several billion dollars or pounds. Figure 2 confirms that the current trend of energy consumption that is linked to carbon fuels provide a factor for the ongoing global warming. Figure 2. Trend in world energy consumption and carbon emission Source: World energy use and carbon emission (13) Figure 2 suggests that we must prioritize on non-carbon sources of energy so we can destroy the link between energy consumption and carbon emission. As population grows or even if we are able to succeed on a zero population growth, mankind needs energy to improve life and make standards of living across the globe comfortable. The basic source of that comfort will be energy. To move into a world that is more environment-friendly and that will reduce if not eliminate the risks of global warming, the priority in our energy search therefore must be on non-carbon sources of energy. IV. Feasibility of non-carbon fuel Is a lower consumption of carbon fuel feasible? Graph 1 below provides data and insights. Graph 1. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita Source: World Energy Use and Carbon Emissions (38) Graph 1 suggests that life with lower carbon emissions is comfortable. It can mean a lifestyle of the Japanese, French, and Italians. The said lifestyles are not bad and are bearable lifestyles. V. Conclusion The author believes that this report provides the reasons why our current priority must be on non-carbon sources of energy. We must prioritize on non-carbon sources because carbon sources are drying up and also because carbon sources promote global warming. Further, a shift to a lifestyle with lower carbon emissions will be comfortable enough for the developed countries. Work Cited Energy Information Administration. Long Term World Oil Supply: A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis. US Department of Energy: Energy Information Administration, 2004. Energy Information Administration. Oil Market Report. US Department of Energy: Energy Information Administration, 2010. Energy Information Administration. World Energy Use and Carbon Emission. US Department of Energy: Energy Information Administration, 2004. Transport Statistics Bulletin. “Low Carbon Van Survey 2009: Results”. United Kingdom: Department of Transport, 2009. Read More