Logical Reasoning and Decision Making - Essay Example

Question Inductive statistics concerns drawing conclusions based on a sample of data available for analysis and the use of appropriate statistics,such as the mean and standard error of some variable in the data set. For a conclusion to be generally useful, the sample must be representative of the population of interest. Give an example of how sample design can be illogical. Will an illogical design automatically sabotage the usefulness of results? Why or why not? A sample design can be illogical if there would be bias involved in selecting samples.

For instance, if the sample design would not involve random selection of samples as representatives of the population of interest, there is a tendency that bias to a certain segment of that population may prevail. There might not be equal chance for each sample to be randomly selected. In addition, this may not exactly point to the appropriate conclusion, because the essence of representativeness in the design is not present. It is illogical to conclude on something that does not actually tell the entire picture of the whole thing.

This case is just the same with handling samples that at some certain level may try to give significant inference about an entire population. In this case, a random sampling is necessary so as to logically generalize the whole population. Question 2:Emotional motivation can both improve and impair logical decision making. When the consequences of a bad decision are very great, risk aversion may become greater, and the same applies when uncertainty becomes greater. Compare the advantages of heuristic versus algorithmic decision-making for situations when great losses (such as total destruction of a city) are possible.

Which would be the best decision-making method? Why?Heuristic, is a rule of thumb when it comes to decision-making that is why it is a different method compared to algorithm that has associated procedures that once followed will yield to correct answers (Halpern, 1997, p.195). The fact that consequences of a bad decision are very great when uncertainty becomes greater, the right decision method should be appropriate in certain circumstance or situation. In case concerning total destruction of a city, one should be able to rely more on experience rather than analytical deliberation of expected risks and utilities.

This should be the case if the decision-making process would require saving time and reduction of effort which in the end would still lead to a considerable accuracy. After all, non-algorithmic method such as heuristic method emphasizes human experience (Fransoo, Waefler & Wilson, 2010, p.12). From this experience, humans have potentially acquired substantial learning of everything. ReferenceFransoo, J. C., Waefler, T., Wilson, J. R. (2010). Behavioral Operations in Planning and Scheduling. London: Springer.

Halpern, D. E. (1997). Critical Thinking Across the Curriculum: A Brief Edition of Thought and Knowledge. Mahwah, NJ: Routledge.