The Concept of Swing States: of New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio - Case Study Example

Insert Insert Grade Insert 06 November The concept of Swing s: Case of New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio Introduction Democracies all over the world work on the principal of electing their leaders for the purposes of representation and as a symbol of unity after certain fixed terms. The American system can be referred to as a hybrid of this practice. In several countries, elections are based on a popular vote and the candidate with the highest number of votes and a clear margin to the opponent becomes the winner or is declared so by the various legal organs. The American version of picking its president is therefore different even though it has underwent adjustments to perfect it. James, Karen & Shanna, (786) states that the country uses a congressional system of voting and each state contribute delegate in a proportionate number depending on districts it has plus the number of the congressmen. Larger states therefore contribute a large number of delegates than smaller ones. This makes them more important when determining who the winner in any presidential elections will be. Another perspective in this dynamic electoral system is that of party domination. There are states that have shown over the past to be consistently vote for one party or another in a bigger margin, say 80 percent. This makes it impossible for a candidate in the other party to garner any meaningful votes from those states. For example, the major parties are the Democrats and the Republicans. Suppose a state has shown in the past three decades to have consistently voted for a candidate in a republican ticket and the margin is wide, the state is branded a stronghold for that party and the same applies otherwise. It is from this that the issue of swing states in presidential elections arises from. Swing states have voters who may vote in any given direction or in favor of any party depending on various issues like healthcare, jobs and other matters affecting them rather than party loyalty. They are important in any election because they decide who the winner will be rather than the other states that seem to be already decided and nothing can change their already predetermined choices. Swing states may also be identified as a result of a candidate in an election coming from a state that was previously not a battle ground state. In general, a presidential candidate requires 270 Electoral College votes to be declared the winner. In 2012 elections, there are several swing states according to different analysts depending on issues that may arise from those states. The incumbent, President Obama is a democratic candidate pushing for a second term whereas Mitt Romney is a Republican candidate who aspires to replace the incumbent. As usual, they have both focused their campaigns on luring the electorate from the swing states since there is no need of wasting resources on states that will vote them in no matter what. Instead, such states have been used as platforms for election fundraising. This paper examines the swing states of Ohio, New Hampshire and Florida. Ohio This must be one of the most important states in the country when deciding who the next president is. Statistics have shown that the state has surprisingly voted for the winning candidate in the last ten United States presidential elections. This makes it a major factor even in this year’s presidential election. The state has 18 electoral votes that are up for grabs for the candidates provided they get to convince the electorates. This state has a population of about eleven and a half million people as of the 2010 census hence is a major state in the country. This also makes it diverse with different interests groups that have different issues at heart they want to be addressed by their next president. The state is also constituted by a conservative population that does not allow emerging issues like same sex marriage, abortion and others and therefore they are likely to vote in a candidate that may be seen to support those ideals. The president has come out clearly in support of some of those issues and this may have a toll on his votes on this state. However, since the republican candidate has adopted a non committal approach, it is not clear whether he supports either side and therefore the electorate can not be sure unless they give him the benefit of doubt. Another perspective that is drawn out in this state in 2012 elections is the motor vehicle industry that has employed a large number of people in the state. The president took the initiative of bailing out the industry during the times of financial turmoil in the sector amid resistance from some corners including the republican candidate. However, the plan was effective in the long run and in the process, many jobs that were to be lost were retained. The president has therefore created another dynamic in that state due to his success in that area. Many opinion polls still place the two presidential candidates on a tight position in terms of percentages in the state of Ohio. The president slightly leads the republican candidate but with a slight margin ranging from one point to three points from the different pollsters. Analysts have also pointed out that no republican candidate will be able to clinch presidency without winning in this state. This, therefore, gives the republican candidate a big task of ensuring that he convinces people further and as evident by his recent campaigns in this state, he has taken that cue. This state’s tendency of siding with the winner is a major factor for both candidates. The facts in recent presidential elections speak for themselves. Former president Bush managed victory because he won in this state; the current president is also a beneficiary after winning more votes than his competitor senator John in the last hotly contested elections. The 2012 election is very close to a point where some are beginning to predict a tie. It is therefore important that this state is not overlooked by any candidate because for sure it will determine who gets to occupy the white house. Florida This is for sure the most important state in the country that will definitely determine who the next president of the United States will be. Statistics have shown that the state has in the last two elections voted for the winning candidate. It is also important to note that in the last ten United States presidential elections, only once has this state been left in the cold in terms of voting for the person who secures victory to be president. This makes it a major factor even in this year’s presidential election. The state has a massive 29 electoral votes having gained two in electoral votes due to its ever increasing population. The two presidential candidates can therefore be sure that they can gain massive numbers in this state provided they convince the highly growing population. This state has a population of almost nineteen million people as of the 2010 census hence is a major state in the country. This also makes it diverse with different interests groups that have different issues at heart they want to be addressed by their next president. The diversity can be seen by the increase of Cubans, service workers and retirees who have preferred to live in the state. This is also coupled with a rapidly growing youthful population in the state that are highly educated and revolutionaries. However, there is still low turnout in terms of the youth voting in elections which poses a major challenge for candidates in this state. The issue of immigrants will also play if the upsurge of Cubans in the state is something to go by. Many opinion polls still place the two presidential candidates on a tight position in terms of percentages in the state of Ohio. The republican candidate slightly leads the democratic candidate but with a slight margin ranging from one point to three points from the different pollsters portraying an opposite compared with Ohio. It is very essential to note that no candidate will be able to clinch presidency without winning in this state because of the numbers it presents. This therefore, gives both presidential candidates the heavy task of ensuring that they convince people and also deal with the issue of lower voter turnout among the youth in the states’ population. This state’s tendency of choosing the winning candidate in recent elections can also not be ignored and should be put into consideration as a major factor for both candidates. The facts in recent presidential elections speak for themselves. Former president Bush managed victory because he won in this state; the current president is also a beneficiary after winning more votes than his republican opponent in the last highly contested elections. The 2012 election is very close to a point where some are beginning to predict a tie. It is therefore important that this state is not overlooked by any candidate because for sure it will determine who gets to occupy the white house. New Hampshire In the contrary, this is a swing state with unique characteristics even though it can not be ignored by either candidate if they desire to attain victory in this year’s closely contested elections. Statistics have shown that the people of this state have persistently voted for the democratic candidate in the recent United States presidential elections despite it still remaining a swing state. This definitely, still makes it a key factor even in this year’s presidential election when predicting who will emerge victorious. The state has a meager 4 electoral votes which is one of the smallest in number that are up for grabs for the candidates provided the get to convince the electorates. This state has a population of about over a million people according to the 2010 census hence is a major state in the country. Another dynamic in this state is that the republican candidate has a home where he goes for his vacations in this state. This makes him a favorite here because he has been considered a son by the residents of this state. Probably, this also explains why the state is a battle ground even though it has been voting for democratic candidates in the recent elections in a consistent basis. Another perspective that is drawn out in this state in 2012 elections is the general feeling by the people in this state that the government has been on their neck always. This poses a challenge for the democratic candidate who happens to be the incumbent. He has to show that there will be no more struggles with the government or the government will in future be ready to give the citizens residing in this state a breather. This is a heavy burden on the president since his opponent has already made inroads here and he can also not afford to loose a state that has been on his side according to the last elections. Many opinion polls still place the two presidential candidates on a tight position in terms of percentages in the state of Ohio. The republican candidate slightly leads the democratic candidate but with sometimes wider margins ranging from one point to four points from the different pollsters depending on the margin of error. This state may be surrounded by the states that are predominantly democrats but it has been considered as swing state because it adopts an independent nature of doing things. The president who is a democratic candidate can not afford to loose ground on this state despite the fact that it has fewer votes compared to other swing states. Sometimes, and in the case of 2012 elections, the winning candidate might win with a narrow margin and hence this state’s four electoral votes cannot be overlooked by either candidate. There is also a factor of undecided voters who still need to be convinced in order to be lured in either side of the political party divide. Prediction This paper predicts the 2012 elections results on a realistic perspective according to the issues discussed above based on a random sample of the swing states. Ohio has 18 electoral votes and the president has a two point advantage on average based on the opinion polls and with a combination of the way he handled the crisis in the auto industry that led to more jobs being retained. On the other side, the republican candidate has an edge in the other two states but a slight one that almost leads to a tie. The republican candidate might also lead on a two point advantage in Florida but New Hampshire is a democratic stronghold that may not necessarily mean that it will be easily taken by the republican candidate. Based on these justifications, the president still has a slight edge of a point lead when the states are combined. However, it is important to note that the republican candidate will take the day in terms of the popularity votes if the states discussed above may reflect a national outlook in terms of who can be voted for by many citizens. Conclusion The issue of change is essential in every country. The United States democratic elections is surely a balanced act of ensuring there is representation of the voices of both the minority and majority groups alike. Observers are even stating that the elections of the country’s president is left with the minority groups that are largely independent in decision making and therefore form the swing mechanism. There is also the issue of unfairness as viewed by other democracies as there is no way a country’s popular candidate in terms of the total number of votes garnered can turn out to be the loser in elections. A good example is that of the year 2004 elections where despite the incumbent president losing on the popularity vote by a significant number of votes, the rival still lost the elections through the delegate system. This method is therefore a mature system of electing leadership of the highest authority but it can be very unfair to the loosing candidate especially if he was the most popular candidate in the elections. On the other hand, it can also be unrewarding to the voters who voted for the candidate of their choice only for him to be knocked out in another system. Lastly, it is important to note that this still happens in other democracies where coalitions are formed to govern countries and losers may come together and form a government even though they were not popular with the electorate. Getting back on the main issue of this paper, the three states of Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire are going to be key determinants in reflecting who the next president of the United States will be in the year 2012. They have the votes totaling to forty one which is a massive fifteen percent of the total number of votes any presidential candidate attain victory in the country. Work Cited James, Gimpel., Karen, Kaufmann, & Shanna, Pearson-Merkowitz. “Battleground States versus Blackout States: The Behavioral implications of modern presidential campaigns.” Journal of Politics; Aug2007, Vol. 69 Issue 3, p786 Read More