Al Qaidas Next Major Domestic Attack on the USA - Essay Example

Al Qaida’s Next Major Domestic Attack on the USA The new Al-Qaida field commander is calling for Muslims in America to leave the country, especially New York and Washington, anticipating a major terror attack after September 11, 2001. (www.worldnetdaily.com) It has been long since, Al–Qaida has not executed a major attack against United States. It is said that law enforcement agency has intercepted the conversation between the senior Al-Qaida members. From the interception, it has been evident that there is going to be an absolute attack on the United States mainland within 3 to 9 months. HIJOOM……DYMES SQUARE……WAHAD OH TELATEEN……RA…...AL SINEH (RAS EL SINEH?)….….KHAMES IQWAN….….AFGHAN……....JAMAYAT SAFAR LEBNANIAH.…GHARE MOOSTAHMELLEH WA MA’ASRUKAH………...ISMAH MESEHIEH………..TE’SHIRAT…EL…CONSUL…EL AMERICIEH…..CASABLANCA…..ISLAMABAD…….…BARIS…….…GENNEDY……….…BEIT……AMEEN………BROKLIN………..MEEYET…..LITTER.SARIN…………SAYYARAT INSA’AF TETTER HERAK……..JUMMA………..MEN TASSAF EL LAYLEH…..ZAMAMEER………….…DOW TENBEEHEE…….HALLET SAKTAH ELBIEH…TEHREEK….EL.HAROOB……….….LAGUARDIA……………..…..……………….DORONTO ……….… LONDONNE ………. SLAMABAD …….. MUMKIN …. MISHKELLEH…SHURTA ………. OULA ….. AMIN …………. AMERICIAH ……. ISA’AF……QUMBLEH…KHAMES.SHUHADA’A…… This was the intercept which is available in Arabic, which is translated in English below. Translation (English) STRIKE …….. TIMES SQUARE ………. THIRTY-FIRST …… NEW YEAR’S EVE (?) ………… FIVE BROTHERS …….. AFGHAN ………. LEBANESE PASSPORTS STOLEN BLANKS …… CHRISTIAN NAMES ……….. VISAS … AMERICAN CONSULATE CASABLANCA……. .….. ISLAMABAD ….. PARIS ……. KENNEDY …… SAFE HOUSE ….… BROOKLYN …... 100 LITRES SARIN ………… MOVING AMBULANCE ………. CROWD …… MIDNIGHT ……….. HORNS …….. FLASHING LIGHTS …… HEART ATTACK CASE …… ESCAPE ROUTE ……… LA GUARDIA ........… TORONTO ………. LONDON ….. ISLAMABAD …… MAYBE ……. PROBLEM… AMERICAN POLICE OR SECURITY …… AMBULANCE … BOMB ……. FIVE MARTYRS…… The above intercept makes clear that Al-Qaida is going to attack the United States surely this time and they are going to do it big this time. The statement makes it clear that they are ready for the strike. The catastrophic attacks on 11 September and the follow on poisonous anthrax letter campaign have ushered in a new terrorist warfare paradigm in which attacks against the United States and its allies have vastly escalated in the lethality of their weaponry and targeting. The threshold from “conventional” low-impact terrorist warfare has been crossed, as demonstrated by the horrific attacks against the World Trade Center and news reports about interest in acquiring or actual experimentation by Al-Qaida in chemical. Biological, radiological and nuclear devices and weapons however crude and low-tech. As a consequence of these factors, the new means of terrorist attacks could be likely to face will involve not only such weapons of mass destruction and disruption but conventional means to attack critical infrastructural targets such as nuclear and chemical plants, agricultural nodes such as livestock feeding centers, and the heart of the American and world economy such as New York Stock Exchange with catastrophic human and economic consequences. From all the previous attacks that Al-Qaida has made on the United States, they have targeted the heritage buildings, political buildings or any edifice that is significant in its activities such as World Trade Center in 1993, and subsequently at Holland Tunnel, Empire State Building, UN Headquarters, plot to bomb CIA headquarters in mid 1990s, Los Angelos International Airport in December 1999, Bombing of USS Cole in October 2000 and finally the great 9/11 plot to crash aircraft into US Capitol and White House which also hit the Pentagon. The phrase “TIMES SQUARE” in the intercept clarifies that they will target the Times Square, is a major intersection in Manhattan, New York City at the junction of Broadway and Seventh Avenue and stretching from West 42nd to West 47th Streets. Times Square is one of the busiest intersections in the world with large corporations headquartered at Times Square with many others having corporate presences in the area. It also holds major buildings such as New York Marriott Marquis, Times Square Tower, New York Times Tower, Conde Nast Building, etc. Times Square has achieved the status of an iconic world landmark and has become a symbol of its city. Times Square is principally defined by its animated, digital advertisements. Times Square is the site of the annual New Year's Eve ball drop. On this night hundreds of thousands of people congregate to watch the Waterford crystal ball being lowered on a pole atop the building, marking the new year. It will be greatest achievement for the Al-Qaida group, if they can attack the site. It is known fact that Times Square is the place where thousands of people congregate to witness the New Year’s Eve ball drop. According to the interception, they may attack Times Square on the evening of 31st December. Al-Qaida has always attacked the monuments that attracted attention from all the corners of the world, all sects of the society. From this point of view, Times Square is the perfect place on the eve of 31st December that may bring in thousands of casualties, disrupt the functioning of large corporate houses that are situated over there. The intercept states five brothers, may be real or group activists, all Afghan nationals would carry out this attack. The five brothers will carry Lebanese passports, as such they will represent as nationals of Lebanon, which were stolen blank. They will represent Lebanon with Christian names on their passports and collect their Visas from the American Consulate at Casablanca. They will start their journey from Lebanon to Islamabad, Islamabad to Paris, Paris to Kennedy Airport, New York, to mislead the intelligence team. After landing at Kennedy Airport they will halt at a safe house somewhere in the area near Brooklyn bridge, where in 2003, truck driver Iyman Faris was sentenced to 20 years in prison for providing material support to al-Qaeda, after an earlier plot to destroy the bridge by cutting through its support wires with blowtorches was cancelled. It may be evident from the fact that Al-Qaida may target brooklyn bridge once again. They will collect 100 litres of sarin which will be used in manufacturing chemical weapons which would cause mass, economic and social destruction, which has been already arranged by the members. At midnight of 31st December, the five brothers will move in ambulance which is supposed to crowded on the particular night, through flashing lights, pressing horns through out the way till they reach their destination and plant the explosive Sarin at the decided place which will blast at some point of time. If the plot is sucessful and the members of Al-Qaida escape the blast, they will fled the place to La Guardia in the same ambulance making an excuse of Heart attack patient in the van. From La Guardia they will move to Toronto, anyhow, may be in car or by train or plane. With the help of Lebanese passports as they already have with christian names, they will easily leave from Toronto to Islamabad. In case, they are suspected or any problem arises from American Police or Security team, they will blast themselves off with the ambulance ultimately killing thousands of people and destroying the huge monuments and destablising corporate functioning of the major corporate houses. The above intercept makes it clear that the Al-Qaida is going to strike big this time with lot more casualties than 9/11 massacre. As stated above, the new Al-Qaida field commander in Afghanistan is calling for Muslims to leave Washington and New York particularly. [www.worldnetdaily.com] These are some of the statements that are coming in and out of nowhere that there will be an iminent attack on the United States. But from the above intercept, it is clear that they are going to target Times Square, which has a iconic status around the world. The attacks that Al – Qaida has executed so far are assumed as revenge by them. The 9/11 attack was a revenge of Palestinian children killed by the US made weapons supplied to Israel. [www.worldnetdaily.com] This is evident that they are the most dangerous enemy to the United States. When looked at all the previous attacks it is noticed that the Al-Qaida group activists attack on some historic days that are significant to their religion or their religio-ethnic community. 11th September may have been especially significant because the conspirators who carried out the 1998 African Embassy bombings wer to be sentenced the following dayh for their crimes i.e. 12th September. And interestingly, the conspirators were in a holding cell at a courthouse in downtown Manhattan near the World Trade Center, which may have propelled the terrorists to attack the preceding day. (Joshua Sinai, Ph.D, 2002) Some of the significant historical dates that are likely to trigger future al-Qaeda attacks are 17 January (the commencement of Operation Desert Storm) 19 March (Jerusalem Day proclaimed by Ayatollah Khomeini to demand the “liberation” of Jerusalem) 30 March (referred to by Israeli Arabs as “Land Day,” it features protests against alleged expropriation of Arab property) 7 May (Israeli independence day) 31 May (the annual pilgrimage in Mecca begins) 5 June (the beginning of the 1967 Six Day War between Israel and her Arab neighbors) 4 July (U.S. Independence Day) 31 December–1 January (New Year’s Day) Failing to anticipate the 11 September horrific attacks represented more than a failure of intelligence—it was a failure of imagination. Previously, such attacks were viewed as too grandiose and farfetched to be taken serious by intelligence and law enforcement authorities. Now these attacks, the attacks that have been thwarted, and other plots are perceived as likely blueprints for future catastrophic terrorist operations against the United States and its allies. Security and risk assessment professionals must always adopt proactive measures to anticipate, defend against, and preempt new types of terrorist threats. Moreover, one should not expect past trends to necessarily reveal future attack patterns because terrorists, especially al-Qaeda planners, always seek to exploit new vulnerabilities and new and innovative modes of warfare in order to evade detection and inflict maximum damage. Therefore, to avert catastrophic attacks that previously were considered beyond the imagination of those responsible for security, we need to begin thinking like the terrorist enemy—always anticipating and preparing to counteract new types of attacks and targeting potentialities. Continuous red-teaming is required, using outside-the-box threat and risk assessments and the most advanced (yet user-friendly) computerized predictive analytic tool kits. Such red-teaming must focus on multidimensional, not unidimensional, baskets of potential threats. Above all, emphasis must be placed on intelligence tracking of suspected terrorist networks, cells, and operatives; detection; and, above all, preemption during the earliest possible pre-attack incubatory phases. The focus to improve warning normally turns to intelligence collection, rather than analysis warning failures are rarely due to inadequate intelligence collection, are more frequently due to weak analysis, and are most often due to decision makers ignoring intelligence. Decision makers, however, ignore intelligence largely because analytical product is weak. Studies show that, “frequently groups of smart, well-motivated people . . . agree . . . on the wrong solution. . . . They didn’t fail because they were stupid. They failed because they followed a poor process in arriving at their decisions” [Captain Sundri K. Khalsa,] A key misunderstanding in the debate over intuition versus structured technique is that an analyst must choose either intuition or structured technique. Doing something systematic is better in almost all cases than seat-of-the-pants prediction. Moreover, decision makers have called on the Intelligence Community to use methodology. “The Rumsfeld Commission noted that, ‘. . . an expansion of the methodology used by the IC [Intelligence Community] is needed.’ . . . Keeping chronologies, maintaining databases and arraying data are not fun or glamorous. These techniques are the heavy lifting of analysis, but this is what analysts are supposed to do. If decision makers only needed talking heads, those are readily available elsewhere”. The key elements in forecasting terrorism are by Defining/ Validating Key Elements of the Intelligence Problem, Consolidate Information, Sort Information, Assess Raw Intelligence Reports’ Information Validity, Assess Terrorist Intention Warning Level, Assess Terrorist Capability Warning Level, Assess Target Vulnerability Warning Level, Assess Country Risk Warning Level, Communicate Conclusions/ Give warnings As from the above interception, from all the elements of forecasting terrorism, it is clear that the Al-Qaida members are planning to attack Times Square using Sarin which will cause a huge mass destruction and destablise corporate proceedings. The law enforcement agency should first of all make an immediate clandestine inquest to the Lebanon Passport Authority whether the passports are stolen or not. In case if they are not stolen, request the government of Lebanon to arrange clandestine agency to look into the proceedings of the passport agency and also place the American Security team. In case if the passports are not stolen, which should not happen this fast, inform all the national security teams that the intercept mentions such as Islamabad, Paris, etc. where they will be traveling through, to arrange prompt security measures at the airport and keep a check on any other terror activities that may or could take place in their nation. The American Security team should follow strict security measures to at the Kennedy Airport, New York, as it is assumed through the interception that the five brothers will land at the Airport. So it is of prime importance to place enforcing officials and intelligence sleuths at the airport in an attempt to grab the terrorists at the airport itself. Then make a serious check at all the safe house or such location where these terrorist can hide. All the criminals in the state should be kept under watchdog, their activities should be clearly examined. Inquest for the 100 litres Sarin should be carried out and on the eve of New Year ie. 31st December, each and every corner of the stone should not be left unturned to prevent the attack. Indicators are the building blocks for forecasting terrorist attacks. Indicators in the sense are those collectable things that would have to happen and those would likely happen as scenario unfolded. The above intercept makes it dead clear that attack is waiting in the pavilion for its turn to unfold the deadliest massacre at Times Square. So it is of prime importance to collect, collate and compile the information such as terrorist travel, weapons movement, terrorist training, target surveillance (Times Square) and tests of security at areas surrounding the place of attack mentioned in the intercept. In order to determine the collections of information in regard to the terrorist attack, raw intelligence reports should be reviewed, the capabilities of US collection should reviewed and case studies in previous terrorist attacks to identify changes in terrorist modus operandi and determine if terrorist are conducting any new activities against which US intelligence can collect. The most significant indication could be movement of weapons that must take place before an attack. Therefore the word “100 litres Sarin” carries a higher significance. The type of information required to assess the status of an indicator should be clearly defined and recorded by validating a list of key question for each indicator. The question sets identify the key factors that experts have determined to assess the status of given indicator. The process begins with the above intercept is being forwarded to Intelligence Community Master Database. After forwarding the information, Junior Analysts called Reporting Profilers will go through the intercept and enters them into Terrorism Forecasting Database. After entering the data into Forecasting Database, it creates potential target hypothesis matrices with the reports and displays hyperlinks to the reports under the appropriate indicators such as targets, countries, terrorist groups and other terrorist specific data profile elements. After entering the data, the computer program combines Source Credibility and Information Feasibility / Viability according to rules in utility matrix logic to determine reports information validity on a five level scale as 1) Almost certainly Valid (~90%)” Color coded red on the website, 2) Probably Valid (~70%) Orange, 3) Probably Not Valid (~30%) Yellow, 4) Almost certainly not Valid (~10%) gray and 5) Unknown Validity (~50%) Black. The above 5 level scale are determined by analysts as Almost certainly valid (~90%) which can be termed as about 90% valid, Probably 70% , Probably not valid 30%, Almost certainly not as 10% and Unknown as 50%. The above statistics indicates 90% as critical, 70% as significant, 30% as minor, 10% as slight and 50% for unknown. After assessing an Indicator Warning level, the computer application automatically produces and updates warning levels on the web pages for terrorist intentions, terrorist capability and target vulnerability. The 11 September attacks were part of al-Qaeda's asymmetric warfare against the United States, in which small, fanatically dedicated teams are employed to inflict maximum psychological and physical damage on a much more powerful adversary. The conspiracy for the 11 September attacks began some two years prior to the attacks, but 12 September may have served as a trigger for the attacks to occur on the previous day. Taking revenge against the United States and its allies for their military success against al-Qaeda and the Taliban is surely triggering other plots, some hatched long ago. Al-Qaeda's intentions can be found in its terrorism training handbook, which has been summarized in published reports. Its missions include destroying infrastructure nodes such as vital economic centers, bridges, and places of amusement. The first major attack against the United States by a terrorist group affiliated with bin Laden was the February 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center towers. This resulted in extensive property damage and some loss of life but failed to bring down the towers. The bombing was intended to be accompanied by the bombing of several other targets, such as the Empire State Building, the Holland Tunnel, and the United Nations headquarters. In December 1994, an al-Qaeda affiliate, the Algerian Armed Islamic Group, hijacked an Air France Airbus with 171 passengers aboard, intending to plunge it into the Eiffel Tower. None of the hijackers could fly the aircraft, so, instead, the plane landed in Marseilles, where French police stormed it. Also during this period, Ramzi Yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, while in the Philippines, plotted to blow up 11 U.S. airliners and fly planes filled with explosives into the CIA headquarters in Langley, VA, and nuclear facilities elsewhere in the United States. In December 1999, an al-Qaeda affiliate was involved in a foiled plot to bomb Los Angeles International Airport. At the same time, al-Qaeda operatives were foiled by Jordanian security authorities in their attempt to blow up tourist sites in Jordan, and internal hurdles prevented them from bombing the USS The Sullivans in the Yemeni port of Aden. The airplane that ultimately crashed into the Pentagon during the 11 September hijackings reportedly also targeted the Capitol and the White House. The fourth airplane, which crashed in a Pennsylvania field, reportedly was en route to hit a nuclear facility in the region. Al-Qaeda operatives had planned to hijack airplanes in Britain and crash them into the Houses of Parliament and London's Tower Bridge. The 11th September bombing of the World Trade Center signifies that when al-Qaeda fails in its initial mission, it is likely to return-however long it takes to prepare for the mission-to complete its initial objective. Therefore, al-Qaeda operatives are likely to persist in their objective of attacking the following targets: the Holland Tunnel, the Empire State Building, United Nations headquarters, the Eiffel Tower, the CIA headquarters, the U.S. Capitol, the White House, and nuclear power facilities. In the United States and Europe, Disney amusement parks are likely targets. In Britain, the Houses of Parliament and the Tower Bridge are still likely to be al-Qaeda's targets The 11 September attacks involved meticulous planning, training, and precisely timed simultaneous execution. Al-Qaeda is highly meticulous and innovative operationally and tactically. Future attacks will likely involve the following diabolical tactics: "Truck bomb" attacks on the ground or using aerial or maritime delivery means, including miniature submarines Driving a truck loaded with a hazardous-materials bomb truck against a prominent target, such as a tunnel or bridge or a busy downtown area Detonating a radioactive bomb at a nuclear power facility The simultaneous bombing attacks of 11 September portend that the next phase will likely involve even more catastrophic assaults, with each successive plot employing newer and deadlier weapons and devices that seek to exploit additional U.S. and allied infrastructural vulnerabilities. In Afghanistan, U.S. forces have uncovered numerous handbooks for conducting unconventional warfare involving chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear devices. Current media reporting is filled with discussions of possible chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attacks by al-Qaeda operatives. Such speculation is not without foundation. Bin Laden's Afghan training camps taught skills for using weapons of mass destruction-such as feeding poison gas through the air vents of office buildings. Other reports claimed that bin Laden operatives tried to obtain uranium from former Soviet republics but were given low-grade reactor fuel and radioactive garbage. Yet such attacks may still be possible. Also possible are attacks with unconventional explosives against a nuclear power plant or chemical facility. Regarding chemical attacks, a crop-dusting plane could be employed to carry out such an operation. One of al-Qaeda's operatives had in his possession a manual for operating crop-dusting equipment, so such an attack should not be discounted.' One of the most worrisome, worst-case scenarios troubling counterterrorism specialists is for an al-Qaeda operative to drive and crash a truck into the New York Stock Exchange building, which reportedly has inadequate perimeter defenses, and detonate a “dirty bomb” with conventional and radioactive materials. Such an attack would render the Stock Exchange and its immediate surroundings inactive for months, setting off worldwide economic turmoil-although this might be offset by the backup computer data storage systems located elsewhere. The London Stock Exchange is a second likely al-Qaeda bombing target, with potentially devastating economic consequences. A third worst-case scenario would be a biological agent attack against a U.S. agricultural sector, with results similar to those of the foot-and-mouth outbreak that devastated British agriculture recently. Such an attack would also severely impact the commodities trading market. State sponsors are crucial to terrorist groups engaging in catastrophic warfare because the sponsors can be helpful in so many ways. Afghanistan's Taliban provided bin Laden and al-Qaeda with a safe haven. Iraq is alleged to be serving as a sponsor for bin Laden and al-Qaeda because of the convergence of their objectives, particularly in taking revenge against the United States. According to press reports, at camps in Iraq, terrorists are trained in chemical and biological warfare and in flying commercial aircraft. Press reports have indicated that an al-Qaeda operative, Muhammad Ataf, met an Iraqi intelligence official in Prague several times. Although there are no smoking guns, it is reasonable to assume that Iraq may have provided al-Qaeda with chemical or biological agents-the most likely would include anthrax (a bacterium) and smallpox (a virus). Al-Qaeda is the umbrella organization for an international network of like-minded groups with hundreds of cells around the world. These groups operate as planets in al-Qaeda's solar system, which makes them highly dangerous because they already possess the infrastructure to carry out terrorist attacks in any part of the world. Potential regions to be targeted by al-Qaeda range from the U.S. homeland to foreign lands, especially those where the United States maintains valuable facilities, such as military bases, or where symbols of America, such as the McDonald's restaurant chain, proliferate. To forecast the next wave of catastrophic terrorist attacks, this analysis uses a methodology based on several components: seven attack warning indicators; an elaboration of al-Qaeda's mindset, modus operandi, and target selection, public statements by Osama bin Laden that were broadcast on television news programs; and the extensive media reporting of the group's previous failed attacks and plots, which serve as blueprints for its future targeting. To preempt and deter such catastrophic attacks, the following risk assessment formula using seven attack warning indicators can be applied to forecast the next waves of attacks. (Indications & Warning Indicators and Observables Preceding the 11 September 2001 Attacks) The catastrophic attacks of 11 September and the follow-on poisonous anthrax letter campaign have ushered in a new terrorist warfare paradigm in which attacks against the United States and its Western European allies will escalate in the lethality of their targeting and weaponry. Because the threshold from “conventional” low-impact terrorist warfare has been crossed, the new types of terrorist attacks will likely involve not only weapons of mass destruction but conventional means to attack critical infrastructural targets such as nuclear and chemical plants, agricultural nodes such as livestock feeding centers, and the heart of the American and world economy-the New York Stock Exchange-with catastrophic economic and human consequences. Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network and its satellite affiliates are the most likely groups to carry out such catastrophic attacks. Rather than face the war on terrorism with the traditional intuition – dominated approach, this methodology offers a systematic forecasting tool that: Guards against nearly 81% of common warning pitfalls, and ultimately improves the terrorism warning process Coordinates analysts in a comprehensive, systematic effort Automates many proven analytic techniques into a comprehensive system which is near real time, saves time, saves manpower, and ensures accuracy in calculations and consistency in necessary recurring judgments. Enables collection to feed analysis and analysis to also feed collection, which is the way the intelligence cycle will work. Fuses inter agency intelligence into a meaningful warning picture while still allowing for compartmenting necessary to protect sensitive sources and methods. Provides a continuously updated analysis of competing hypothesis for each potential terrorist target bases on the status of the 68 indicators of terrorism Is target specific, rather than country specific Has built in trend analysis to continuously revise scales used to determine warning levels Combines threat with friendly vulnerability to determine risk and provide a truer risk assessment than typical intelligence analysis This terrorism forecasting system would serve as the drock for the evolving approach to terrorism analysis and an unprecedented for ecasting model. References 1. Al-Qaeda 'stepping up US efforts' , BBC NEWS, Tuesday, 17 July 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/ 2. Al-Qaida warns Muslims: Time to get out of U.S., Afghan terror commander hints at big attack on N.Y., Washington, Homeland Insecurity, September 17, 2006, www.worldNetDaily.com 3. Bin Laden: Al Qaeda motivated to strike U.S. again, CNN International.com, Saturday, October 30, 2004 http://edition.cnn.com/ 4. Captain Sundri K. Khalsa, Forecasting Terrorism: Indicators and Proven Analytic Techniques, Almeda, California, United States. 5. Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon (2005), The Next Attack; The Failure of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting It Right, Henry Holt and Co., October 2005, www.henryholt.com 6. Dr, Rusty Shackleford (2006), Al Qaeda Will Nuke US in Late September, The Jawa Report, http://mypetjawa.mu.nu 7. Joshua Sinai, Ph.D, (2002), How to Forecast and Preempt al-Qaeda’s Catastrophic Terrorist Warfare, http://www.homelanddefense.org/ 8. Sherrie Gossett (2006), Bin Laden Threat Points to Imminent Attack, Analyst Says, Special Report, CNSNews.com, http://www.cnsnews.com Read More