Factors Surrounding the Ukrainian-Russian Conflict - Essay Example

Name: Tutor: Course: Date: Conflict Analysis and Resolution Paper Introduction The various factors surrounding the Ukrainian-Russian conflict has been discussed in detail. This factors and drivers have been dived into various levels such as individual level, societal level, international level and global/ecological level. There are various factors under every category such as religion, political science, system government, physiological factors, psychological and sociological factors and not forgetting historical faction. In one way of another, some of these factors and conditions had a role to play in escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russia-Ukraine conflict involved many parties from the region leading to a global interest in the issue. While the Russian backed separatists wanted to be identified with the prosperous Europe, Putin had different interest in the region of showcasing Russian influence and keeping his pride amidst the storm (Torres et al, 2009). Sanctions imposed by the West culminated into a cease-fire and eventual calm in Ukraine, however, the conflict had already claimed its casualties. This paper uses Pillar 2 analysis to focus on Russia-Ukraine crisis and uses all aspect under this framework to analyze the case study. Pillar 2 analysis shows drivers and conditions that would make the conflict worse or better. There are many factors and conditions that results into conflict that can be discussed under Pillar 2. Pillar 2 Russia-Ukraine conflict analysis Pillar 2 of the 3 Pillar Framework covers causes as well as conditions of conflict. It explains the drivers of conflict. Causes as well as conditions of a particular conflict may develop from any number of multiple disciplines that include individual level, societal level, international level, and global/ecological level. Individual level involves biology and philosophy. It explains nature verses nurture debate concerning human aggression. It concerns the physiology/neuroscience which are neurological processes within the brain that involves interactions between limbic, reptilian, and neocortical brains that escalate chances for violent behavior when the organism faces stress or threat. The psychology part involves the significance of perceptions and memory in conflict and conflict resolution behavior. Psychiatry explains the role of trauma in conflict behavior. Finally theology under individual level discusses the role of individual spiritual views in conflict and conflict resolution. Putin incursion into Crimea was more of individual ego and show case the Russian might against the West. Putin’s goals of pursuing regional influence came into play in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Despite how opportunistic and haphazard in appearance, Russian actions within Ukraine continue to appear as strategic , although short-term, maneuvers to achieve Putin’s goals of causing constant conflict, making Ukraine ungovernable, making sure that is undesirable to the West and openly showing off Russian might in the wake of measured up response from the U.S. and EU. Putin opts to a continuous state of hostilities and making not effort to bring about any meaningful peace agreement. Russia continued cease-fire violations despite Minsk agreements. Putin had his own personal agenda but uses the countries ideologies to pursue individual goals. Societal level revolves around anthropology that discusses the influence of culture in conflict and conflict resolution behavior. It also includes religion which is the significance of collective religious beliefs in conflict and conflict resolution behavior. The 2014 Ukraine-Russia crisis reflects a pattern of trouble triggered in the past ten years across the former Soviet Union and sets the stage for the next 3 to 5 years. Some of the cases include 2008 war in Georgia and 2007 cyber-attacks on Estonia (Torres et al, 2009). The unrest demonstrated in Ukraine has become a signal case since it leads to reactions across the post-Soviet independent states and fur beyond. Civil society, governments as well as other players in the Baltic States across Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are watched keenly the instability within Ukraine for its potential impact on their own territories. Some members of Eurasian Economic Union like KAZAKHSTAN and Belarus did not endorse annexation of Crimea indicating their concern over Putin’s actions on Ukraine with regard to their own external and domestic vulnerabilities. Russia is a proud nation and its people are deeply attached to this philosophy. The instinct, mindset and identity of Russian people are largely shaped by geography. Russians always suffered from a feeling of encirclement anxiety. Their world-view is shaped by conviction that people who seek to exploit and undermine their motherland just lie at their door step and hence they are obligated to strike first. Societal values in Russia have played a big role in sinking in the hearts of people Putin’s propaganda concerning Ukraine crisis. Moreover, the issue concerning national identity continues to be a big issue in the scenario as is the case for most of the post-Soviet countries. The aggression by Russian has become a rallying opportunity for Ukrainian national unity. However, the lack of zeal by the leadership in building, solidifying, as well as sharpening a national identity that can be embraced by everyone leaves the citizens in a confused state of internal tensions and ambiguity. Russia used this opportunity to continue divisive propaganda. Societal level further involves economics which is the influence of economic factors such as unemployment, nature of economic system, fiscal and monetary policies, financial crises in conflict and conflict behavior. The separatists were concerned about the escalating level of corruption and wanted to be identified with the developed west. The Maidan protests were against rampant corruption and wanted to be aligned more with the prosperous West. The protests destabilized the society making vulnerable and innocent people to suffer. Geography also has a role to play. This is the role of physical location as well as characteristics in conflict and conflict resolution behavior. Ukraine location geographically puts it at the center of controversy with a greedy Russian and protective West that has its own interests. History encompasses the significance of historical events commemorated on the calendar in conflict behavior. Russia has been looking for alternative was of getting gas supply without crossing Ukraine. One alternative is the constructing the North Stream pipeline that will join Germany with Siberia within the Baltic Sea. The other way is the South Stream with connects Balkans with Europe. The threat to the previous traditional Russia Ukraine alliance makes Russia to be apprehensive. The threat to traditional alliance makes Russia to feel obligated to keep Ukraine under control hence curtailing any movement towards Europe. The surge in pressure causes incidents rate to go up hence causing instabilities in the region. Historical factors are into play in the Russia-Ukraine conflict since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russian wants its presence and influence to be felt in the region and Putin is employing every tactic he could lay his hands on. Sociology involves the role society like nature of social system; structural violence, caste, class, discrimination/delegation, and structural violence; and availability of grievance system. The separatists were agitating for a genuine case against rampant corruption and a government that did not care about the suffering of the people. Putin just took advantage of the situation. The level of internal instability can be addressed to a certain degree by the Ukrainian civil society’s efficiency in leading a variety of conflicting issues and even reforms. This is the case despite Russia’s economic, political and military maneuvers. The civil society within the country draws important lessons from the collapse of the 2004-2005 Orange Revolution as a motivator. Failure or success has huge ramifications for the civic activists as well as political maneuvers within Ukraine and the neighboring nations. The societal level also encompasses political science that deals with the political factors like nature of the political system, the type of government, existing internal strife, and legislative reforms. The separatists wanted to be aligned to the more prosperous west. The government of the day was not addressing the issue of rampant corruption that affecting the common citizen welfare. Ukraine had to carry out major structural reforms that were need by International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to qualify for financial assistance. The situation in Ukraine had deteriorated to a level of causing public unrest (Van Metre, Gienger & Kuehnast, 2015).The Ukraine government needed international help to get out of the financial crisis it was experiencing. The separatists had a worthy cause that was hijacked by Russia for selfish gains and stamping its authority across the region. The Kiev government was leaning towards bankruptcy but it could not enact reforms to facilitate IMF money. In the political science under the societal level there is a powerful link between foreign conflict and domestic conflict. The internal conflict within Ukraine became a foreign conflict where Russian wanted to get involved. Ukrainian pro-European activities like NATO bid escalates the friction Russia-Ukraine, fortifying the feeling against Russia. Thucydides’ philosophy that “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must” holds true in the case of Russian attempt to annex Crimea. Putin did not care about the civilian population that was suffering innocently. He just wanted to demonstrate its might and show its influence against the western power. This is the case of Vladimir Putin externalizing an internal conflict in order to remain in power with regard to Ukraine (Rutten, Fedor & Zvereva, 2013). Russia has harnessed successfully support for the war in Ukraine through turning the Maidan narrative towards itself by arguing that the political transition was a strategic move by the Western powers to make Russia more vulnerable. The account of current events has permitted Russia to monopolize the conflict narrative across many neighboring countries. Some of the neighboring governments with authoritarian regimes have taken the opportunity to undermine civil movement, arguing that the West is using popular movements in destabilizing the region. The Maidan protests that commenced in Ukraine in 2013, despite their constructive objective of demanding to be aligned with the more prosperous West and put an end to escalating government corruption, instantly offered a chance for Vladimir Putin to use external provocation to fuel indigenous instability in order to pursue personal goals of global and regional influence (Sakwa, 2014). The annexation of Crimea by Putin and his incursion into southern and eastern Ukraine caught the Western nations by surprise, triggering off a struggle to come up with a response from European Union, United States, and a North Atlantic alliance that was included to retrench after engaging in a decade long war in Afghanistan. Russia soared up its propaganda as well as other tactics to suppress or confuse the supposed opponents abroad and at home. The Military of Russia stepped up its exercises close to the border of Ukraine. NATO observed that surges of Russian personnel and equipment over the border as well as contested areas (Müller & Vasilyeva, 2009). The sanctions imposed by the West impacted negatively on the Russian economy but did not deter the approach by Putin. Any impact on the financial power brokers of Russian as well as the public was suppressed by the regime’s propaganda. The October elections in Ukraine reinforced the pro-European, pre-reform forces within parliament and the focus now shifted to urgent need to deal with corruption and turn around the country’s economy to strengthen its link with the European Union and get the financial support needed to deal with an economic crisis. The link between NATO and Russia has been at the center of European as well as international politics for more than five decades. The hostility of mistrust has not been buried for all this time. NATO and Russia have not achieved the intention of establishing a partnership (Novosti, 2009). The sensitivity of Russia with regard to the enlargement of NATO alliance has been a persistent source of serious tension. Whereas few might have foreseen the collapse of European/Eurasian security environment that is being witnessed in the wake of the Ukrainian conflict, the Russia’s confrontation with the West with regard to Ukraine was largely anticipated. Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union as well as the end of the cold war, Russian federation and NATO nations remained locked in a perceptual mindset of a divided Europe. The tensions existing between the West and Russia have resulted in the Ukraine crisis that threatened to devastate the society and further to unravel all development attained in achieving greater peace and security in the World after the end of the Cold War. The annexation of Crimea as well as intervention in aid of separatist groups in the East demonstrate the desire of the Russian regime and society to reaffirm the role of Russia in the protection of perceived interests and out rightly challenging United States as well as Western influence within their close neighbors. The behavior of Moscow with regard to Ukraine has precipitated strong objection in the West. NATO condemned in strongest terms the escalating Russia illegal military intervention in Ukraine. Russian reverted to the power politics strategy. It threatened not only Ukraine’s security but European and global security (Novosti, 2009). Aggression by Russia against Ukraine is not a unique case but a perceived game changer in the European security. It demonstrates a developing pattern of behavior that has been surging over the past several years. The recent actions of Russian in Ukraine resulted in sanctions from the West as well as repositioning of the US and NATO forces as well as resources in Europe targeting reassurance of allies. NATO-Russia relationship has been at the center of the developing of Russia’s relationship with the West following the collapse of the Soviet Union. International level under Pillar 2 entails factors that are studied by the multidisciplinary field of international relations like the type of international system. These include such things like balance of power, unipolar, multipolar, and bipolar that can impact on their conflict behavior. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a bigger international dimension to it that can be compared to the era of the Cold War that Pitted Russia against the Western powers (Sokolow, 2009). The Russia-Ukraine crisis went out of hand in the early 2014 following the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent occupation of important government buildings within the east of the country by pro-Russian separatists. This case is a reflection of a larger trend. Beginning from the support of separatists in Moldova to the seemingly emblematic war in Georgia, Vladimir Putin’s tactics with regard to the sovereign nations of the former Soviet Union seem to demonstrate a common pattern and trend of destabilization that commenced more than ten years ago. The effects of the Ukraine crisis seem to reverberate across the world. Lateral pressure to look for access to resources has been the cause of tensions in the eastern Ukraine and neighboring countries. The former members of the Soviet Union have been experiencing instability some sponsored by external powers (Sakwa, 2014). The Russian interest within the region and the Western influence has a part to play in the endless conflicts within the area including the Ukraine conflict. The Russian government chose to show its might and influence over the region leading to sanctions being imposed by western powers and the US. The boil within Ukraine is partly driven by the ability and willingness of the US, European powers like Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom to give assistance to Ukraine and motivate Putin to end his aggression in Ukraine. Consequently, financial assistance to Ukraine continues to be pegged on quick reforms, straining the ability of the society to endure a war and an economic crisis (Sakwa, 2014). The United States continued to deliver increased levels of training as well as other military aid and NATO pursuing its cooperation with Ukraine for the purpose of defense of reform. Global/ecological level encompasses things like religions such as global Christianity, global Islam; and technology like social media and the internet. Ecological issues include things such as global warming, environmental degradation, and finite sources of energy among other issues. Russia uses hydrocarbons energy that it relies on from neighboring countries. Depletion of resources and scramble for new resource is a cause of alarm that also contributed to the Ukraine crisis (Müller & Vasilyeva, 2009). The struggle to gain more resources within the region might have played a role in drawing the Western interest and causing Russia annexation of Crimea. I was easier for Russia to cause disability within Ukraine than the Ukraine government to build a more stable and secure state following the protests. This made it impossible for Ukrainian forces to recapture the occupied areas by pro-Russian fighters. The Russian interest with regard to energy supply in the region was another cause that culminated into the conflict pitting the West against Russia. Conclusion Annexation of Crimea by Russia and the larger Ukraine-Russia conflict is a recent conflict that culminated into bigger regional tensions pitting the West against Russia. Pillar 2 Framework has been used to discuss and analyze the drivers and conditions culminating into Russia-Ukraine conflict and its aftermath. Putin’s individual objectives and individual interests came into play in the bigger Ukraine conflict. Russian wants to show its influence and military might in the region. There are various factors and conditions the precipitated Ukrainian conflict. The factors were internally and external. While the separatists were protesting for a worthy cause in the wake of increased corruption, Putin took advantage to make Russia’s presence felt in the region forcing western powers to come up with a counter response. Putin’s interest in Ukraine stem from a historical background and involved power struggle and Western influence. The Ukraine conflict has elicited mixed reactions from the Western powers and tested the ability of Russia to back down in the wake of confrontation by the West. References Müller J., and Vasilyeva I. (2009) “Offshore gas pipelines in Europe”, retrieved from www.nord-stream.com RIA Novosti “Turkey possible winner in Russia-Ukraine gas dispute-expert”, RIA Novosti (January 24, 2009), retrieved from http://en.rian.ru/world/20090124/119785418.html Rutten Ellen, Fedor Julie, and Zvereva Vera (2013). Memory, Conflict and New Media: Web Wars in Post-Socialist States, Routledge: New York, Sakwa, R. (2014). Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands, London: I.B.Tauris, Sokolow M. “Interview with former Russian energy minister Vladimir Milov”, Radio free Europe, Radio Libertad (January 8, 2009), retrieved from http://www.rferl.org/content/Interview_Gazprom_Harms_Russian_Interests_/1367968.html Torres Jose M.; Ainara Alvarez; Laugé Ana and Sarriegi Jose M. “Russian-Ukrainian Gas Conflict Case Study”, Tecnun - University of Navarra, 2009, retrieved from: http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2009/proceed/papers/P1240.pdf Van Metre Lauren, Gienger Viola G., and Kuehnast Kathleen, “The Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Signals and Scenarios for the Broader Region”, Special Report, United States Institute for Peace, 2015, retrieved from:http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/SR366-The-Ukraine-Russia-Conflict.pdf Read More