Global Population: Consequences of Population Growth - Essay Example

Topic: Global Population The world population would have been much higher than what it is now had there been no floods, famines, disease, war, and other such disasters. Stability in population is due to the Justinian plague world wide in A.D. 540-90 that took 100 million lives, the Black Death in A.D. 1348-80 that again took away 150 million people from Europe alone. Not far behind was influenza of 1918-19 that took a toll of 25 million lives. Recovery was fast with the rate of increase in the population, as the available data shows below (Dolphin). The above data provides a rough estimate of world population starting from 50 million in 1000 Ad to reaching 120 million by 1700. Taking into consideration the expected future data till 2050, population growth estimation can be viewed till 2020 in the figure below, showing fast growth till 1656 until the Flood of Noah decreased the population. At the time of Christ, world population was between 200 to 300 million. The world population would be 12,000,000,001 by the year 2200 if we take into consideration the recent history of population growth (Dolphin). Due to uncertainty regarding the population growth 2000 years before, logical bounds on the value of world population in AD1, for example, can be put with a lower bound of 50,000,000 and upper bound with 200,000,000. Population in AD 1000 can be bounded for lower and upper at 250,000,000 and 350,000,000 (Dolphin). According to the Press Release (11 March, 2009) of the UN population division, the world population currently at 6.8 billion will touch the mark of 7 billion by early 2012, and reach to 9 billion people by 2050, as revealed in the 2008 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates. The data indicates certain trends in world population like the population in developing countries will be young with children under the age of 15 accounting 29 percent of the total population and between 15 to 24 years age accounting to 19 percent of the total population. It would be a bigger challenge for the governments in developing countries to face education and employment challenges with the economic and financial crisis surmounting. Another trend would be seen on the growth rate of population above the age of 60 increasing more than 3 percent per year. Controlling HIV/AIDS would be another challenge linked to continuous growth. There is vast difference in the data of developing countries and developed countries on population growth. Let’s take the example of United Kingdom to analyze the population growth data, as given below from 1950 to 2010. In the year 1950, the population of United Kingdom in thousands was 50, 616, which after a span of 60 years reached 61, 899 thousands. One thing that easily comes to notice after viewing the data is the slow pace of population growth. It was almost stagnant from 1975 to 1985 registering 56, 226 thousands in 1975 to be followed in 1980 by 56, 314 thousands, and in 1985 by 56, 554 thousands. The data indicates that developed countries like the United Kingdom are less on their national population growth than developing countries. But immigration is the big reason of population growth; it has not been a natural growth (UN Database 2008). A comparison of the population pyramids of all age groups of the UK’s male and female population of 1950 and 2010 indicates that the population in all age-groups is continuously on the down side, showing decrease in female and male population in the estimation for 2010. Indirectly, it points out the lowering fertility level of men and women, which was comparatively high in 1950. The fertility of UK born people is decreasing. In 1950 the male fertility rate of was 4.40% and female fertility rate was 4.19%, which has come down to 3.07 for male and 2.92 for female in 2010. As pyramid for 2010 indicates the age group nearer to the 4% level belongs to 40 to 49 age-groups, men a bit more below than women to around 4%. The striking feature of the comparison of pyramids is the difference between the population of 0 to 15 years age-groups, which was around 4.5% for males and 4% for females in 1950 but for 2010, their figures have come down sharply to around 3% for both male and female. Some exceptions could be there as was seen in the year 1999 (UN Database 2008). Recent observations have been contrasting. The population growth in 2007-2008 has seen decline in immigration the reason of which could be the recession world wide. The number of births has increased for the first time since 1999 in comparison to immigration but in future immigration is going to be the major reason of population increase in the United Kingdom. The increase in births has been due to both the UK born women and immigrant women. A number of reasons are assigned to the increase in birth rate. Fertility rate among the UK born women has risen. Besides there has been an increase in the fertility rate of women born outside UK, and overall increase in the total fertility rate of immigrant women to the UK born women (Human Population Growth & Migration, Nov 1, 2009). Since the Second World War, the growth in the UK population has been due to huge growth in ethnic minority population. This trend is going to continue in ethnic minorities of the UK. It will impact the overall structure of ethnic population; changes will be detrimental to the bearing capacity (Human Population Growth & Migration, Nov 1, 2009). Consequences of overall population growth in the UK will be threatening to the social order. The government depends on the skills and labor needs of the immigrants too much, which comes in the way of developing a revolutionary policy on the active role that needs to be played by the work force. There is need to pay sufficiently to the low-skilled labor, raise or remove the bar on retirement age, and implement pension reforms, which are crucial to tackle employment issues besides providing sufficient help to the ageing population. There is scope of increase in the population of political refugees, which will further increase the immigration population in the United Kingdom. The population growth in the UK is closely related to migration of political refugees the impact of which will determine the policy making (Human Population Growth & Migration, Nov 1, 2009) Now, let’s analyze the population growth data of a developing country Nigeria to find out the growth rate, its causes and consequences. Population growth in Nigeria since 1950 has shown explosive trends many a times. Increasing constantly from 36, 680 thousands in 1950, it reached 56, 467 thousands in 1970. After that the growth rate almost doubled from 1970 to 1990. From 1995 to 2005, the trend continued with extra-ordinary population growth registering from 110, 449 thousands in 1995 to 124, 842 thousands in 2000, culminating to 140, 879 thousands in 2005. It is expected to reach 158, 259 thousands by 2010 (UN Database 2008). Causes of high growth rate in Nigeria have been high fertility rate in rural population. According to reports use of birth control methods has not been regular; actually, it decreased by 7.1 percent in 1995. According to 1998 report, only 5.1 percent of all Nigerian women use family planning methods. There is sharp need to educate rural people on the need to control the rate of population growth so that benefits of economic growth reach everywhere (Use of Modern Birth Control Methods among Rural Communities in Imo State, Nigeria, 2008). Population growth in Nigeria will result in crunch of resources for the people, which can have serious consequences, as faced in a number of poor and economically weak developing countries. There is dire need to popularize the use of birth control methods to bring down the birth rates. . There is difference of birth rates in developed and developing countries. The developing countries have birth rates of 15 to 40 per 1000 while in developed countries the birth rates are below 15 per 1000. The LDC birth rates are still higher than they were before industrialization of the Western Europe. Reason could be early marriage and common practice of marrying widespread in developing countries. The trend off late has been of a downfall in fertility in developing countries like Mexico and Bangladesh where growth rate has been slow and Zimbabwe where it has been almost stagnant. Another contrasting feature noticed in developed and developing countries is related to the difference in mortality rates, which has been on the decrease. The main reason has been better medical facilities in the developing countries. Full-fledged vaccination movements have created social consciousness among the developing countries’ populations. Campaigns against diseases like malaria, smallpox, yellow fever, and cholera and availability of public health organizations besides clean drinking water, better diet, and education has been crucial in decreasing the death rates by 50 percent in parts of Asia and Latin America and above 30 percent in Africa and Middle East. But average life is still 12 years more in developed countries (Population Growth and Economic Development). The similarities and differences in developed and developing countries have global consequences because economies world wide have become connected due to free market structure. Developed countries face the risk of bearing the burden of excessive population growth in developing countries. Natural resources that the developing countries were able to export to the developed countries get absorbed in maintaining their own supplies. Industrially developed countries are growing slowly in comparison to developing countries. The population of developed countries would take another 120 years to double, which the developing and poor countries would take just 33 years to double. In future, the need for essentials like food, water, healthcare, technology, and education would be more acutely felt because population growth would make all social and economic progress futile. Population growth would affect the overall standard of living and increase the level of human miseries (Kinder, 2009) Developed countries although registering nominal population growth yet have to bear the impact of population growth in developing countries. The people and natural resources of developing countries are in demand in developed countries, being their business partners. Timber, fossil fuel, and raw material become short in supply as increased domestic consumption results in negligible import to developed and industrialized countries. Consequences of population growth in near future will impact all nations irrespective of their being developed or developing. There is need to share information and resources to get control over population growth (Lindsay, 2001). References U. N. Database. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2008, March). World population prospects: the 2008 revision population database. Retrieved November 1, 2009, from http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp Dolphin, Lambert. (2007). World population since creation. Retrieved November 1, 2009, from http://ldolphin.org/popul.html Human Population Growth and Migration. (2009). Population growth and migration: the United Kingdom. Retrieved November 1, 2009, from http://www.population-growth-migration.info/ Kinder, Carolyn. (2009). The population explosion: causes and consequences. Yale-New Haven Teachers Institute. Retrieved November 1, 2009, from http://www.yale.edu/ynhti/curriculum/units/1998/7/98.07.02.x.html Lindsay, Heather E. (2001, March). Overview. Environmental policy issues -- global population growth. Retrieved November 1, 2009, from http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/ern/01mar/overview.php Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies. Chapter 6. Retrieved November 1, 2009, from http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/pub/faculty/lloydellis/econ239/readings/todaro_population.pdf Press Release. (March11, 2009: 12:00 PM). Developing countries to add 2.3 billion inhabitants with 1.1 billion aged over 60 and 1.2 billion of working age. World Population to Exceed 9 Billion by 2050. Retrieved November 1, 2009, from http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/pressrelease.pdf Use of modern birth control methods among rural communities in Imo State, Nigeria – Introduction. (2008). African Journal of Reproductive Health, 12(1). Retrieved November 1, 2009, from http://www.bioline.org.br/request?rh08015 Read More