Growing Population and the Consequences - Article Example

Growing Population and the Consequences Article: ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’ by Joel E. Cohen The world’s growing population is expected to reach a threatening level by 2050. Population growth is expected to decline in developed countries while it is expected to rise in developing countries. Important considerations in growing populations are demographic uncertainties. These will concern the whole planet for the next 50 years. Demographic uncertainties of main concern will be international migration and the structure of families. In addition to these two main points, there are economies, nonhuman environments, and cultures (values, religions, and politics) that are strong influencing forces. Therefore, all the choices made by the human race, individual and collective, will have a demographic impact. The population by 2050 could be an additional 2.6 billion people. This is worth comparing with the world population in 1950, which was 2.5 billion. “There are some things we can reasonably know and other things we cannot know. By examining population size and distribution, it is possible to get a feeling for possible challenges to our future well-being. It is possible to get a sense of the larger picture.”2 According to the evidence before analysts, it does make sense to make a reasonable projection. This is because they are able to take into consideration the current birth rate patterns and growing populations in different regions. In addition to this, they are also able to have insight to repercussions of a growing population, and aspects like human consumption in different regions help to predict roughly what could happen. Regarding what can be reasonably predicted, it is said that the worlds population will grow at a much slower rate than it is currently, particularly in the developed countries and richer countries. However, the population will still be larger by 2 to 4 billion people. The population will tend to be more urban, particularly in underdeveloped countries. Another characteristic is that the population will tend to be elderly. In addition to this, it is asserted that international immigration will play a role in a growing population, but it cannot be accurately determined what type of role it will play. It cannot be determined “whether we will inflict a doomsday on ourselves by warfare, disease or catastrophe. Our future depends on choices - on the choices we have made in the past and those we will make in the future. We cannot continue the exceptional growth of this last half century without experiencing consequences.”3 It is assumed that fertility rates will carry on dropping and preventions and treatments against HIV and AIDS will be more effective in time to come. Also, catastrophes like biological warfare or thermonuclear holocaust is unlikely to be inflicted on people. This assumption is based on the urbanization predictions of the United Nations Population Division. Important features considered in the assumptions made above include the following: History of human population: Since the beginning of time till 1927, the earth ended up with first 2 billion people on the planet. It took another 50 years to add the next 2 billion people (1974). Also, another 25 years later, the earth witnessed the next 2 billion added (1999). Birth rates: The global total fertility rate declined from 5 children per woman per lifetime (1950) to 2.7 children (2000). This is thought to be the result of worldwide efforts to make contraception and reproductive health services available widely. However, if the current fertility rate remains as it is, the world population can be expected to grow to 12.8 billion by 2050 as opposed to the projected 8.9 billion. Urbanization: Approximately 2 percent of people lived in cities in 1800, followed by 12 % in 1900, followed by more than 47 % in the year 2000. In 1900, there was not a single metropolitan region that exceeded 10 million people. By 1950, New York became the first region to exceed 10 million people. By the year 2000, there were 19 urban regions that had 10 million or more people. Out of the 19 regions, just four were (Tokyo, Osaka, New York, and Los Angeles) were in industrialized countries. In addition to the features briefly described, others include ‘poor, underdeveloped regions’, ‘population density’, and ‘aging population’. It may not be easy to predict whether global demographics will affect families or international migration. However, there are three factors that do help to point out where growing population is going. These are: fertility falling to very low levels, increasing longevity, and changing mores of marriage, cohabitation and divorce. The following scenario is quite interesting keeping in mind these three pointers. A population that has one child per family means that there will not be any siblings for that one child. Therefore, in the next generation, the children of those single children will have no cousins, aunts, or uncles. If a population has people between the ages 20 and 30 when they have children and live up to the age of 80, they will long lives even after their children reach adulthood. This means that their children will have decades of life with elderly parents, and the next generation will have the same experience. Five Sources that Agree with agree with Joel E. Cohen’s ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’. In sync with Cohen’s article, Weeks’ ‘Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues’ raises similar issues that come along with growing population. Almost all his points are similar to Cohen’s views4. Harrison’s work ‘The Third Revolution: Environment, Population and a Sustainable World’ agrees with Cohen, and believes that overpopulation is a cause of environmental degradation and depletion of sources. Analyzes specific environmental issues, such as deforestation, soil erosion, air pollution, etc. in order to determine how much of the responsibility can be blamed on population growth5. Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich’s book ‘The Population Explosion’ provides one with a significant number of statistics on the problem of population growth and the effects it has on the environment6. This work agrees with Cohen’s article ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’. ‘Population, Resources and the Environment’ provides significant insight to the problem of over population that relates to Cohen’s article ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’. Again, the major concern here is the environment, and this is because with a polluted environment, human beings will suffer7. ‘The State of World Population’ points to how many more people live in marginal conditions. It also focuses on how increasing numbers of people of future generations will have fewer options in time to come8. This refers to the problem with few resources in time to come, as described in Cohen’s article ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’. Five Sources that Disagree with agree with Joel E. Cohen’s ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’. As opposed to Cohen’s article ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’ that highlights the problems populations will face with funds such as social security, Baker’s ‘Social Security: The Phony Crisis’ book refutes any allegations against social security failing in the 21st century. He asserts that there is no way of predicting anything, and that it is unreasonable to assert that social security will not be able to cope with a growing population9. Stenett’s book disagrees with Cohen’s article ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’. Edwin asserts that growth is good for more development, and in areas where there is urban sprawl, he recommends strategies to redevelop areas where urban sprawl exists. This is opposed to dealing with over population, as it is not the main problem10. Wattenberg et al ask the question: whether population growth is really a problem. It considers many areas that are similar to Cohens consideration, but tends to disagree that overpopulation is alone to blame for any expected problems11. In contrast to this work, Cohen’s main focus in his work ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’ is on population growth being to blame for future problems. Martin work, ‘The missing bridge how immigrant networks keep Americans out of dirty jobs,’ agrees with a portion of Cohens article ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’ because it focuses on immigration movement that concern population and environment12. According to Dernbach and Ehrlich, population growth is good for sustainable development13. This may be true in a sense because of available sources and other favorable aspects, but it conflicts with Cohen’s ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’. Conclusion: According to the views in Joel E. Cohen’s article ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’, a growing population is a risk to the planet in many ways. Cohen predicts that there will be a shortage of resources coupled with an abundance of other problems that can be disastrous. According to the sources listed above, there are writers that agree with his work. However, there are other writers who disagree with Cohen’s views. They largely assert that a growing population does not necessarily point at future problems with social security, shortage of resources, etc. They assert that a growing population may be good for more development and better standards of living. References: Baker, Dean and Mark Weisbrot (2001). Social Security: The Phony Crisis. University Of Chicago Press; New Ed. Cohen, J. E. (2003). ‘Human Population: The Next Half Century’. Science 14 November 2003: Vol. 302. no. 5648, pp. 1172 – 1175. DOI: 10.1126/science.1088665 Dernbach, J. ed. Ehrlich, A. (2002). The Importance of Population Growth to Sustainability, in Sustainable Development in the United States Ten Years After the Earth Summit 32 Environmental Law Reporter. Ehrlich, P. and Ehrlich, A. The Population Explosion. Simon and Schuster, 1990. Harrison, Paul. The Third Revolution: Environment, Population and a Sustainable World. I.B. Tauris in association with the World Wide Fund for Nature, 1992. Philip L. Martin, The missing bridge how immigrant networks keep Americans out of dirty jobs, Population and Environment A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Vol. 14, No. 6, July 1993, pp. 539-564. Population, Resources and the Environment: The Critical Challenges. (1991). United Nations Population Fund. Stennett, Edwin. (2002). ‘In Growth We Trust: Sprawl, Smart Growth, and Rapid Population Growth’, Publisher: Growth Education Movement, Inc. The State of World Population, 1990. United Nations Population Fund, 1990. Wattenberg, Ben and Karl Zinmeister. (1985). Are World Population Trends a Problem? Wasington, DC: American Enterprise Institute (AEI) for Public Policy Research. Weeks, J. R. (2004). Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues Wadsworth Publishing; 9 edition. Read More