Civil War in the Arab World I - Essay Example

Introduction There are currently different researches that focus on civil wars and probable ways of ending such conflicts within different regions.The cases presented in these articles asserts to the fact that relative military capabilities can at times lead to further complications, since imbalanced capabilities reduces prospects for a negotiated settlement while balanced capabilities increases them. This is since governments and insurgencies uses quite different tactics and capabilities making it difficult the measurement of the balance. This essay provides a summary of recent conflict resolution measures and gives further review on works that examines the determinants of war onset and duration. Civil war in the Arab World 1 The article fragments possible causes of prolonged conflict within Arab nations with focus on economic parameters and composition of various groups. In this case event analysis as used provides insight on the fact that the higher the probability, that two individuals drawn on random are from different groups, the higher the chances of prolonged conflict based on high fragmentation. Several geopolitical variables are used in the article for the purposes of providing adequate understanding on factors playing crucial role in the duration of civil war within Arab world. In support for hypothesis 1, there is indeed inadequate security offered by Arab governments on the control of peripheral regions. This makes it easier for insurgents to access border. Additionally, support offered by local population to insurgent tends to prolong duration of conflict within this region. This is since the ruling elite tend to pay less attention to national events that negates their political supremacy. The nature of the terrain seems insignificant in the determination of conflict determination. However, forest cover provides significant results on the duration of conflict within Arab world (Mohamed and Mohaned, 2014). The article focuses on geopolitical dynamics of internal conflicts in the Arab World. Different geopolitical factors play vital role in the duration of internal conflicts which include distance, access to international borders, terrain and capability of opponents in Arab civil war. The event history approach used models the expected duration of civil conflicts within the context of time. In this article, there are several competing parametric models of survival analysis, which favors the use of Weibull parameterization. In this case the model allows for testing for duration dependency in the process of terminating civil conflict within Arab world. The duration analysis technique as utilized estimates the relationship between the times used t and the risk involved in the process of conflict termination at time t (Mohamed and Mohaned, 2014). From the model as applied in this case there is clear indication that duration dependency parameter denoted with p, determines occurrence of conflicts. This is such that when results show positive duration dependency (p > 1) there is a possibility that the conflict within Arab world is more likely to terminate with the passing of time. However, negative duration dependency (0 < p < 1) is a clear revelation that institutionalization of current conflict prolongs the scenario. In such cases the insurgencies utilizes existing opportunities to initiate fighting, reducing possibilities of ending the conflict over time. The Weibull distribution as utilized in the article creates the assumption that there is a slight increase or decrease in the baseline hazard with respect to time (Mohamed and Mohaned, 2014). In such a model, there is an indication that the rate at which a civil conflict within the Arab World terminates at time t depends mainly on the grounds that such a conflict has survived until t. The factors and symbols used in representing the nature of the conflict correlate with the vector that denotes various intervention measures as applicable by third parties. Subsequently, the vector representing various control variables, as given in the case study determines duration (Mohamed and Mohaned, 2014). Longest insurgencies In this article there is clear indication that only few sons of the soil insurgencies occur on longer duration. However, the various sons of the soil peripheral insurgencies that occur in medium capacity states, averagely takes longer duration of time. This is in line with hypotheses as provided by the study. The insurgencies are further fueled by infiltration by politicians who happen to use lower levels of violence and containment-type strategies to fuel violence within their territories. From the study, there is clear indication on the fact that increasing one side’s probability of decisive victory is expected to shorten duration of war within a territory. Asian wars are notably longer on average as compared to those within African or European territories. This is further shown by the Kaplan-Meier survival curve (Mukherjee, 2014). From the analysis provided, various empirical obstacles to testing the impact of relative capabilities on the duration of civil war are factored, hence providing some strength to the research (Mukherjee, 2014). There is direct link between conflict duration and conflict intensity despite the possibility of long-duration conflicts being fueled by institutional structures. The use of diplomatic interventions or rather third-party intervention methods may not provide required solutions. Based on conflict characteristics, identifying the nature of strength of any insurgent group provide a strong prediction of the expected duration a conflict can take. Insurgencies fueled by either religious or ethnic backgrounds seem to have a longer expected duration as compared to ideological conflicts. In such cases the success of third-party strategies, even if the right type of conflict management strategy is employed, is subject to some level of constrain based on various factors that lead to initiation of wars. The article provides proof that intense conflicts are more likely to end in the near term as compared to less intense ones. Such cases may be influenced by politicians’ willingness to accrue high costs of fighting based on the fact that high resolutions on wars from their perspective is beneficial towards transmitting information concerning the true character and nature of the opponent. Therefore, politicians play crucial role in motivating stalemated low-intensity insurgencies. The findings from the article suggest that various extractable resources such as oil and other valuable minerals assist in providing incentives to continue fighting. In this case, availability of extractible resources to rebel insurgents enables them pay selective benefits hence considerable and readily accessible (Mukherjee, 2014). This result may help explain why sons-of-the-soil and contraband-financed insurgencies are so intractable. When the state is controlled by a majority ethnic group whose members include large numbers of impoverished, land-poor farmers, the government has an enduring interest in favoring migration to less populated peripheral areas. Even if the center has incentives to cut regional autonomy deals to reduce costly fighting with ethnic minority guerrillas, both sides know that the center will soon face strong political pressures to renege on behalf of migrants (Mukherjee, 2014). Likewise, if there are significant natural resource or contraband rents available in the region, this increases kG or kR (whoever controls them), thus making a negotiated settlement more difficult to construct. The Systemic Dimensions of Intrastate Conflict: Assessing the Impact of Polarity on Civil War Duration The article examines effects of systematic polarity on intrastate conflicts, given are theoretical reasons as to why bipolar systems should be linked to increase in the duration of civil wars as opposed to unipolar systems. The article reveals that intrastate conflict is intimately related to significant level of international politics. There is elaborate link between complex nature of international systems and trends in civil war duration (Anderson, 2013). From the article, it can be deduced that implications provided through democracy provides more effective means in settling intrastate conflicts. This is only possible in cases where interventions are provided in the middle stages of the conflict. However, such an observation correlates with the findings that mediations in interstate disputes are prove more effective in the event that they are employed at early or late stages. The results as provided can be interpreted to suggest that at the inception of a conflict there is always unusual optimism from both warring parties. This is since the parties involved seem to overestimate their chances of obtaining a decisive outcome. In such cases, existing incompatibility between the adversaries is not subject to diplomacy. However, longer duration of conflicts provides warring parties with enough time to adjust their success estimates based on changing situations. In the event that conflict continues insurgents tend to invent ways of avoiding future costs associated with the conflict, this provides an opportunity to apply diplomacy which can prove more effective in the later stages of disagreements (Anderson, 2013). In the case provided in the article, it seems difficult distinguishing different types of war especially in situations when there is no clear indication of whether the war is intrastate or interstate. For instance the conflict between the US and the Confederate States of America serve as a good example for this case. This is since the governing state does not recognize seceding states as legitimate, however, the scene in never devoid of international supporters. There is clear revelation on the fact that internationalization of a civil war on the basis of external intervention at times lead to prolonged conflicts. This is since intervention by third parties into a civil war at times alters the decision of a potential rebel leader to actually agree on ceasefire (Anderson, 2013). There is a demonstration through given example of methodological benefits of being sensitive towards systematic polarity in cases of civil conflict. However, the article reveals on the fact that intrastate conflicts have relations with international politics hence affecting the dynamic trends in civil war duration. The aspect of systematic dimensions of intrastate conflict is not well accounted for in the process of identifying key explanatory variables. Therefore, the framework examining the effects of systematic polarity on duration of intrastate conflict is adequately presented. From the results, war termination in such circumstances is defined from the perspective of providing resolution on the incompatibility that exists between insurgents that fuels the conflict. For the purposes of precision in dating bipolar conflicts, the use of proportional hazard models helps in the assessment of probabilities to terminate wars (Anderson, 2013). Non-governmental Conflict Resolution and Civil War Duration The article shows different inferences that suggest complexity of conflict management. Such complexities as posed by conflicts, requires deep application of necessary information as held by the parties concerning nature and strength of their adversaries. The ultimate results from participants revolve around either losses or gains they can obtain from a negotiated settlement. Involvement if third party within such policy community would well serve the purposes of providing conflict management strategies in the process of designing interventions. Specifically, the theoretical implications of the event analysis model point as used in the article provides close thinking concerning the strategic problems that adversaries’ utilize that eventually affect the duration of civil wars (Kiel, 2013).The whole conflict resolution process therefore, requires models of intervention that focuses on the conditions under which resolutions and intervention measures are implemented. The success of third-parties in such conflicts lies on clear communicates of the objectives surrounding distribution of power as well as contributions from adversaries. The aspect seems effective in the process where contentious issues that lead to the onset of the conflict are accounted for (Kiel, 2013). The article can provide more meaning in cases where diplomacy interventions are given proper timing. One of the key inferences from resolution process in the article is that undertaking diplomatic initiatives within the right time leads to termination of conflict within subsequent months. According to Kiel (2013), when the same intervention is undertaken in the third month from the onset, there is a possibility that termination of the conflict would take place in the 26th month. From the article, there is clear indication that providing mediating at the middle part of the conflict from the onset provides almost immediate solution. In the case of conflict resolution, the article focuses on non-linear relationship with regard to time. Such a case calls for accurate timing on implementation of the important part of the intervention strategy for positive results to be realized. However, the combined effect of economic and diplomacy provides independent effect in the event that there is an increase in war duration. This provides some level of dramatic differences since the effects of economic intervention relies on how they are utilized alongside diplomacy. From the article it can be deduced that diplomacy is not only part of the intervention package, but also presents an element of timing when diplomatic initiatives should be undertaken by third-parties. Therefore, non-governmental conflict resolution measures as provided in the article are considerably important to be used as appropriate tools for potential interveners (Kiel, 2013). The expected civil war duration as per the article can be reduced dramatically through diplomatic interventions. The model used in analyzing the conflict duration in the articles shows that, the expected duration for civil conflicts that have experienced diplomatic interventions usually experiences reduction rate of close to 76% as compared to those conflicts that pays no attention to diplomatic interventions. However, there is further interpretation that the process can as well present difficult challenges in cases where decay function is included in the model for the purposes of reinforcing effects of interventions over time. In the cases provided in the article, simple interaction of diplomacy with timing seems positive despite lacking correlation to the expected duration. Subsequently, the log representing the timing of diplomacy is valued at negative owing to its significant association with duration (Kiel, 2013). Killing Kony: Leadership Change and Civil War Termination In the article it is almost certain that duration of war is adversely affected in case of leadership change (Tiernay, 2013). Croco’s analysis concludes on the fact that culpable and non-culpable leaders presents almost equal chances of gaining power in cases of leadership change. From the model, it is clear to note that conflict termination positively relates to leadership change. The steps taken in accounting for endogeneity problem that includes examination of battlefield results shows that leadership change variables can be considered as exogeneous in the event that endogeneity is not considered as the problem. However, there is still strong support on the fact that external rebel leadership removal increases the probability on termination of war. For instance the case of Jona Savimbi of UNITA party in Angola, his assassination led to ceasefire after a period of only three months (Tiernay, 2013). Event history analysis as used in the article shows that conflicts are more likely to end if the current leader in control was the same leader at the inception of the conflict. However, such conclusion seems contrary to culpability hypothesis given in the article that clings on the idea that leaders tend to fight for longer duration as opposed to settling disputes. Subsequently, the data provided gives some coherence with culpability hypothesis whereby 37% of the conflicts that were resolved formally incorporated non-culpable leaders. This shows that non-culpable leaders are prone to sign peace agreements as compared to culpable leaders (Tiernay, 2013). The article provides several reasons for launching operation thunder against rebel leader Kony. From the analysis model there is an indication that the war between LRA and Ugandan government could have ended had Kony been killed in 2003, killing Kony could have substantially reduced duration of the conflict (Tiernay, 2013). There is a clear indication that leaders provide the necessary charisma that fuels civil wars since their decapitation seem to quell aggression. The elaborate representation of power struggles across political spectrum leaves everything on self-focused consumerism. The overall analysis of LRA vs Uganda government’s conflict seeks to explore the root of cultural and political forces affecting the country. From the article Kony’s extraordinary charisma as portrayed within the article brings some sense of complexity in the duration the war could take before coming to an end. However, analysis of the conflicts behind political processes is difficult since numerous factors are considered in the process of investigating causes of such conflicts (Tiernay, 2013). According to Tiernay (2013) such factors include position of state leaders and nature of conflict on the ground, conflicts can either be politically, ethnically, economically motivated. In such cases, state leaders play crucial role in ending disputes between warring functions. The leader’s involvement in civil conflict may affect his tenure since any change of leadership irrespective of timing determines the idea on conflict termination. However, the article gives no detailed account that could lead to suggested leadership changes amidst conflict. Further, the level of country’s performance also presents a potential determinant on conflict duration (Tiernay, 2013). Conclusion The general observation reveals several divergences depending on how models of intervention are specified within each article and their effects in determining conflict duration. However, issues surrounding conflict duration require full interpretation based on adequate research results. There is adequate support on the issues surrounding crucial effects of timing of interventions towards conflict duration. In these articles, there is clear indication that different intervention measures having detailed and informed focus on conflict management are more likely considered as effective at stopping conflicts compared to those that focus on manipulation of structural conditions. In this case, structural conditions refer to issues such as relative capabilities of adversaries. References Anderson, N. (2013).The Systemic Dimensions of Intrastate Conflict: Assessing the Impact of Polarity on Civil War Duration. Working Paper No.2013--‐21 Kiel, C. (2013). Non-governmental Conflict Resolution and Civil War Duration: Do NGO interventions contribute to shorter civil wars? Conflict Resolution and Civil War Duration paper Mohamed, M. M., & Mohaned, T., A. (2014). Visualizing the Influence of Geography, Oil and Geopolitics on Civil Wars in the Arab World: A Novel Application of Self-Organizing Maps and Duration Models. Civil Wars, 16 (2), pp 239-254 Mukherjee S. (2014).Why Are the Longest Insurgencies Low Violence? Politician Motivations, Sons of the Soil, and Civil War Duration. Civil Wars,16 (2), pp 172-207 Tiernay, M. (2013). Killing Kony: Leadership Change and Civil War Termination. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1-32 Read More