Possible Future Laws for Covert Action in Ten Years in Relation to National Security and Public - Essay Example

 Possible Future Laws for Covert Action in Ten Years in Relation to National Security and Public Safety To enhance in ensuring effective security, the U.S adopted covert actions with an aim of influencing political, military as well as economic situations in other nations with an intention that the U.S federal government role remains unapparent or publicly acknowledged. These may consist of a variety of activities ranging from propaganda, supporting military or political factions within a specific nation, providing logistical together with technical knowledge to other governments to help in dealing with challenges affecting their nations. Consequently, the covert actions may result with an aim of enhancing in disrupting illicit activities that possess the capability of threatening the interests of the U.S that include narcotic trafficking and terrorism among others (Garret, 2014). Covert measures therefore result to enhance in supporting an “identifiable” foreign policy objective. The CIA holds the sole responsibility of carrying out covert actions under the National Security Act of 1947 with the CIA Director being in charge of carrying such roles as well as duties that touches on intelligence that touches on National Security that the President or the National Security Council may direct. Since the end of the Cold War, limited covert actions have been evidenced with the activities becoming minimal until after the September 11 incident. Nonetheless, the programs remain in use to enhance in supporting ongoing policy needs. With various changes evidenced in a variety of issues globally, the covert action program is expected to change to involve technologies as well as skills lacking in the current infrastructure. Consequently, the growth projected to occur globally, game changers as well as indicator will influence the changes and roles of covert action. In an effort to predict the changes that will occur in the future globally, various credible institutes and governments have conducted studies to enhance in ascertaining these changes. Identifying the possible global changes is essential in enhancing the current communities to adapt and engage the right approaches for a better future. The trend is equally important for a nation like the U.S that currently remains as the superpower with any global trends that possess the capability of usurping that position keenly observed (Marshal and Amy, 2015). Global Trends 2013 report intends to stimulate thinking among individuals and nations relating to the vast as well as geopolitical changes in the current world together with possible global changes expected over the next fifteen years. Future projections indicate that after the next fifteen years, the world will achieve radical transformation than what is currently evidenced. The trends signify that during the year 2030, the current large nations whether the U.S or China as portrayed currently as the emerging superpower, will cease to possess hegemonic power. There will occur a dramatic impact relating to individual empowerment as well as power diffusion among nations and from nations to informal networks. The changes that will occur will significantly reverse the historic rise of the West that continues to dominate since 1750 and as a result restore the weight of Asia in the global economy while also leading to a new era of ‘democratization’ both at the domestic as well as at the international level. Consequently, other than the empowerment together with state power diffusion, there exist other two megatrends that possess the capability of shaping the world through the year 2030 (Marshall, 2013). These two megatrends relates to demographic patterns, mostly resulting from rapid aging as well as growing resources demands that comprise of food and water leading to the possibility of experiencing scarcities. These trends are virtually certain as evidenced currently prompting a feeling and ascertaining that the needs will continue to rise in a much greater momentum. Tectonic shifts serve a significant role in underpinning the megatrends with effects of the shifts affecting the whole world. The changes will affect the trend of how the world currently operates in every aspect. It is important to note other important global issues that touch on the effects of climatic conditions to help ascertaining how global food security will become affected. Without even depending on climate models, empirical evidence portrays how climatic changes will affect global food security in the course of the next ten to fifteen years. The empirical evidence shows the effects of the general global warming trend with its effect evidenced on weather and ecosystems with increasing impacts facing human beings. An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conducted in 2012 with an aim of delivering a report on how to manage the risks of extreme events, the results indicated that change is leading to extreme weather and as a result making the weather more intense. There is an occurrence of dramatic as well as unforeseen changes in a faster rate than the expectations indicate with specific cases portrayed in regions with snow and ice (American Weather, 2012). Studies show the diminishing of Arctic sea ice diminishing in both area and volume that are very high than predicted by any model with the possibility of varnishing before the initial predictions stated at 2020 – 2050 now a consideration. Changes are equally evidenced in major ice shelves with the current emissions of greenhouse gases indicating the possibility of doubling as 2050 approaches. More significant impacts will result on the climate as increased greenhouse gas emissions will lead to temperature rise. There are also other changes that prompt to affect the covert action in the near future with China serving as one of the issues that will warrant consideration and focus. It is in the global perspective that China is regarded as the emerging superpower and despite its failure to possess the military might as the one with the U.S, the economic strength of China suggests more. Although the economic superiority of China may fail to attract much alertness from the CIA, the concept of nonproliferation as well as China’s relations with Iran, Pakistan as well as North Korea will (George Bush School of Government and Public Service, 2010). The three nations are the main proliferators and understanding how China manages its relationship with the nations will prove major issue. The issues under observation in the context will stem from China’s geopolitical interests, diplomatic ties, and military as well as economic interests with these three nations. Since the U.S ranks the three nations as security risks due to their activities that include war equipments, it will prove crucial for the U.S to understand Chinese relationship with the nations. The covert action may see the U.S leveraging a claim to enhance in gaining Chinese cooperation on nonproliferation issues (National Intelligence Council, 2012). Through ensuring the right approach and good claim leverage, the covert action that the CIA will present to the Chinese will ensure that the security threat as a result of proliferation is eliminated. Terrorist attack and other forms of attacks that result from technological advancements that include cyber attacks also serve as major areas of concern in the coming future that will warrant covert actions. Following the September 11 terrorist attacks, the Pentagon ensured an expansion to its counterterrorism intelligence practices in what the Bush administration regarded to as the global war on terror. Some of the operations from the Department of Defense are attributed by some observers as those qualifying as covert actions with presidential finding required as well as Congress notification through intelligence committees. The concern is raised with an effort of ensuring that the U.S is in touch with any terrorist activities and prevention of terrorist attacks that may result in the near future (Marshal and Amy, 2015). With the increased technological changes, terrorists are equally adapting and acquiring new techniques and the same is expected to continue in the near future. Covert actions will aim at limiting any terrorist attacks that remain a possibility due to improvised technological measures. Cyber crimes are equally on the rise and terrorists may explore that avenue to achieve their objectives. It therefore seems that increased focus will aim at determining the possibility and nature of occurrence of cyber crimes. Once the possibility of cyber crimes is detected, covert actions will occur in respective nations to prevent the crime. Economic shock as evidenced over the past during the 2008 economic crisis also serves a possibility that may occur in the near future. While the economic crisis that hit the world in 2008 resulted from the U.S housing policies, other rising economic power like China and India possess the capability of presenting the same challenges (Frank, 2014). Consequently, other powerful nations and foreign organizations may engage in economic espionage in various nations. Ascertaining the possibility and impacts of economic espionage will prove essential and subsequently ensure that covert actions are taken to prevent such. Trade agreements between the U.S and other nations will also serve as main focus in the current future to enhance in deriving economic benefit from the growing world economy. The Asian nations seem on the rise and posses untapped natural resources that will find their way to the market soon. Engaging in trade agreements with the nations that possess raw materials and plenty of natural resources is a beneficial attribute to any nation. In conclusion, covert action is an essential program in the U. S with its importance evidenced during the Cold War period. Although the systems and size of the program shrank after the Cold War period, it still remain in the U.S with its roles triggered after the September 11 terrorist attacks. Despite collision occurring with the DOD accused of taking the roles of covert actions, the program is still relevant and in existence. However, the global trends in relation to environmental factors, economic, terrorist as well as emerging strong economies will significantly affect the covert actions (Phythian, 2009). As a result, there will occur changes in focus from what is currently covered. It is therefore important to note that global changes expected in the near future presents significant changes in intelligence missions as well as capabilities of the U.S. References American Weather. (2012, December 11). NIC's Global Trends 2030 Report Provides Short Climate Change Discussion - Climate Change - American Weather. Retrieved from http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38295-nics-global-trends-2030-report-provides-short-climate-change-discussion/ Frank. A.B, (December 9, 2014). Dealing with femtorisks in international relations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol 111, No. 49 17356-17362 Garret, J. (2014, November 2). Presidential Findings, Covert Operations, and Clandestine Operations: Understanding the Secretive World of Intelligence Operations | Jim Garrett - Academia.edu. Retrieved from http://www.academia.edu/12569337/Presidential_Findings_Covert_Operations_and_Clandestine_Operations_Understanding_the_Secretive_World_of_Intelligence_Operations. George Bush School of Government and Public Service, (2010).Texas A&M University, Emerging Trends with a Potential for Significant Impact on the US Intelligence Community.  Phythian, M. (2009). Intelligence Analysis Today and Tomorrow.  Security Challenges, Vol. 5, no. 1. pp. 67-83. Marshal, E., & Amy, B. (2015, March 27). Congressional Research Service Reports March 2015. Retrieved from http://heinonline.org/HeinDocs/congressional_research_service_reports_march_2015.html Marshall, E. (April 10 2013). Covert Action: Legislative Background and Possible Policy Questions. Congressional Research Service. National Intelligence Council. (2012-01). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Richard J Aldrich. (2009). Beyond the vigilant state: globalization and intelligence.� Review of International Studies, Vol. 35, No. 4. pp. 889-902 Read More