Strategic Policy Brief on Security Developments in Syria - Essay Example

Strategic Policy Brief on Security Developments in Syria Executive Summary The ongoing conflict between the Syrian government and the opposition forces is arguably the worst war in recent times. A conflict that began in 2011 as an Arab Spring has persisted with no sign of the war ending any time soon. So far, thousands of Syrian people have died with more than a million others displaced from their homes. Even though efforts are ongoing in an attempt to end the conflict, nothing much has been achieved. Therefore, it is important for the European Union member states, such as British government to come up with a policy that will help end the conflict, restore peace and democracy. The most suitable strategic policy needed to solve the Syrian situation includes tackling the issue through diplomacy. So far, President Assad has agreed to give up its chemical weapons, which is an indication that diplomacy can suffice. In this regard, it would be very critical to offer the on-going Geneva talks the needed support to help end the impasse through diplomacy. However, in the event that diplomacy fails, Britain and other EU member states should consider pursuing drastic policies against Damascus, including imposing economic sanctions, isolating al Assad and his henchmen, turning the business community against him, or using military action. The adoption of these policies would certainly help solve the impasse and restore democracy in Syria. The serious people are in dire need of peace. This objective of this document is to analyze the current security situation in Syria and come up with a policy that is suitable for solving the security situation in the country. The Situation Brief The ongoing war between the Syrian government and the opposition forces is arguably the worst war in recent times. A conflict that began in 2011 as an Arab Spring has persisted with no sign of the war ending any time soon. Report indicates that the conflict has affected at least four million Syrians most of whom are civilians. According to Pichon (2013), more than 8,000 people had so far died since the war began, while about one million others have been displaced from their homes. Dietl (2013) reports that thousands of Syrians are forcefully being displaced every day by the ranging war between the Syrian government and the opposition forces. Most of the displaced persons leave their homes in a bid to seek protection, medical care, and aid. Findings show that Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Egypt are becoming overwhelmed by the huge number of refugees that flee Syria to these countries. Some Syrians even opt to seek refuge as far as Morocco and Yemen, while Britain is also offering home to many refugees fleeing their country. Beattie (2014, p. 7) reveals that others have sought refuge as far as in the U.S. as shown in the picture 1 below. According to the United Nations report, at least one million Syrians have crossed the border into other countries to seek refuge (Laub and Masters 2013). The U.N. projects that more people are likely to leave their homes in the coming months if the two warring factions fail to end the war. As things stand now, every nation understands that the conflict in Syria is not about to end anytime soon. This follows the hardstand positions taken by the warring sides. Bashar al Assad has refused to step down to give the country the opportunity to hold a democratic election (Frassinelli 2013). The opposition has also refused to back down on their hard line position maintaining that it will only cease war when President al Assad resigns. Leaders from the region have been trying to break a ceasefire between the opposition and government side in a bid to end the war. In fact, the Geneva talk is ongoing where the situation in Damascus tops the agenda. However, so far these efforts have not born much fruit. Britain has recognized that something needs to be done to save the Syrian people from oppression and violence. However, Britain being a country that has had a long-standing relationship with Syria has not considered establishing tough measures against the Syrian government in order to end the impasse. The United States is so far the only country that has shown a strong indication of entering the fray in order to end the conflict (Frassinelli 2013, p. 4). For instance, the United States at one time proposed the use of military action to topple the Syrian government in a bid to restore peace and democracy in the country (Zanders 2013). However, some countries in the region led by Russia and China strongly opposed the move, arguing that military action is unacceptable, and therefore, should not be avoided at all cost. William Hague, the British foreign secretary was also quoted condemning the use of military action against Syria (European Union External Action 2014). Picture 1. Picture showing Syrian refugees seeking sanctuary in the U.K. (Beattie 2014, p. 7). Picture 2 Picture showing an innocent Syrian young girl wounded following an airstrike conducted by al Assad forces (Pichon 2013). Policy Options The Syrian situation has been worsening each day. In this regard, it is important for EU member states, such as Britain to come up with strategic policies that will help end the crisis. One of the policies suitable for the Syrian situation is trying to end the crisis through diplomacy. Frassinelli (2013) argues that we live in a world where diplomacy should be given a chance whenever there is a conflict. In this regard, it will be important to try to break a ceasefire between the warring factions by taking a diplomatic cause. The diplomacy strategy will involve bringing President Bashar al Assad and the opposition leaders on a table to discuss the issue and reach a compromising position to help end the conflict. It is important to note that such efforts have failed in the past to end the conflict. However, broker a ceasefire in the conflict; it is crucial that the warring factions come to the negotiating table without putting any precondition. Even though diplomacy should take precedence to any other move, the Syrian people should not be left to continue suffering in the event that diplomacy fails. In this regard, it will be important to take other drastic measures, such as imposing sanctions against the Syrian government. This policy has been supported by many countries in the past, including the Arab League and the United States (Marcus 2013). The Arab League did suspend Syria from being a member of the League and imposed economic sanctions on Syria in November 2011. Even though Russia, China, and the UN Security Council vetoed the move, there will be no other option but to pursue the strategy. Therefore, in the event that diplomacy fails to yield fruit, an economic sanction will suffice. Imposing economic sanction against Damascus by cutting off aid to Syria will make it difficult for al Assad to continue fighting (Portela 2012, p. 5). In addition, EU member states will be encouraged to freeze all assets of the Syrian government, burn imports of petroleum products from Syria, as well as prohibit the citizens from EU countries from doing business with the Syrian government. This policy will exert pressure on the Syrian government, forcing president al Assad to resign. Solving the Syrian crisis will also require isolating al Assad. European Union External Action (2014) reveals that the support of the Syrian government rests in Alawite community, forces, and the business people. The Sunni also provide huge support to the Syrian government both financially and militarily. The Syrian population, according to the most recent census shows that about 74% of Syria’s populations are Sunni Muslims, while only 10% are Alawite of the Shiite Islam. Al Assad comes from the Alawite community who are the best-trained division of the Syrian forces. Therefore, solving the Syrian conflict will require isolating al Assad, family and his henchmen from the rest of the Alawite community that normally provides him with support, but has not benefited from the wealth that Assad has amassed over the years (Amnesty International 2013). Whereas this strategy can effectively help weaken the al Assad regime, it will also be important that the all the forces opposing the government be brought together to fight as a united force. Currently the opposition forces are divided into two. This kind of division only helps the government forces to advance to keep towns and cities. Therefore, encouraging the opposition forces to fight as a united front will help weaken the Assad government and finally topple it. Another strategic policy that might help solve the Syrian situation will involve turning to the business community by encouraging them to stop supporting the al Assad regime. As things stand, the business leadership in Syria has taken a neutral position regarding the conflict that is going on in their country (Mohammed 2013). Therefore, it is important to hatch a plan that will make them business community see the al Assad as liability whose continued hold of power adds economic pain. In fact, trade and tourism has significantly gone down since the war broke out. Therefore, making them understand that the continued existence of Assad in power will only worsen the situation. This strategy will certainly make them turn against Assad, thus stop giving him the financial support he need in order to continue fighting. Like imposing economic sanctions, rallying the business community against the Assad government will serve as an economic warfare. Analysis of the conflict in Syria shows that government forces are becoming stronger than the opposition forces. This is, particularly so after the disintegration of the opposition forces that has made them weaker and vulnerable to government forces. In this regard, it will be important for countries that neighboring countries that are opposed to the Assad regime to support the opposition army (Blockmans 2013). For instance, it is important to encourage the Sunni tribes residing in both side of the borders of Syria and Iraq to assist the Syrian opposition troops in their fight against Assad if they wish to do provide assistance. Rallying together as a group will make the opposition forces stronger and capable of toppling the Assad government, thereby helping in restoring democracy in Syria. Even though al Assad has not come clear as to whether he will be seeking reelection, political analysts believe that he is most likely to seek reelection in order to protect himself. Even if he does not seek reelection, he is likely to transfer power to one of his family members or close allies who will protect him once he is out of power. Therefore, the only way that the only best way of saving the Syrian people is by removing Assad as the opposition demands. Therefore, one of the best means that can help topple Assad is by freeing the opposition army backed by the western powers. However, in the event that all the strategies fail, Britain and allies will be left with the option of using military action against Assad government as has been proposed by the Obama administration. For instance, it was alleged that Syrian government tried to use chemical weapons against its people in October (Marcus 2013). It is very absurd to see a government using chemical weapons against the people it is expected to protect. If the Syrian government continues, using chemical and other weapons of mass destruction against its people this will result in many deaths. Even though several countries, including Britain, have always maintained a stand against the use of military action against Syria, the use of military action should be supported as a last resort. This is because allowing Assad to continue in power may give him the opportunity to use chemical or biological weapons against civilians who oppose his rule. Looking at the past, the military action used against Iraq, and Afghanistan helped in toppling the undemocratic regimes and replacing them with a people’s government. Reflective Summary While writing the policy brief, I experienced a myriad of challenges. One of the main challenges that I experienced in this regard related to the presentation of different facts by different sources. This problem also closely relates to the reliability of the different sources that I came across during my research. For example, there were cases where different sources presented different statistics regarding the number of people who have so far died and been displaced as a direct consequence of the conflict. In this regard, I opted to rely on statistics and information provided by the most authoritative source, also taking into consideration the date of publication of the source. Authoritative sources in this case included reputable organizations such as Amnesty International and European Union External Action. Another challenge that I faced was when choosing the best policy option. While diplomacy seemed to be the best policy option, there are chances that in its application, the Syrian people may continue to suffer as the warring factions take their time negotiating and making demands. This being the case, it was quite tempting to choose military action as a best policy option to stop the conflict. I finally overcame this challenge by taking note of the fact that in many situations, before warring factions come to the negotiating table, diplomats convince them separately to hold their fire and possibly sign a memorandum of understanding. I relied on evidence of past diplomatic actions where two warring factions were brought to the negotiating table under peaceful terms to be convinced that diplomacy as an option can work without having to apply some extent of military action. References Amnesty International 2013, Fortress Europe: Syrian refugee shame exposed, viewed 4 Feb. 2014, https://www.amnesty.org/en/news/fortress-europe-syrian-refugee-shame-exposed-2013-12-11 Beattie, J 2014, 22 January, Cameron opens doors to Syrian refugees as Geneva talks re-begin to end three-year conflict. Mirror News,. Blockmans, S 2013, Syria and the red lines of international law, viewed 4 Feb. 2014, http://www.ceps.be/book/syria-and-red-lines-international-law Dietl, G 2013, The great gas game over Syria. Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis, viewed 4 Feb. 2014, http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/TheGreatGasGameoverSyria_gdietl_090913 European Union External Action 2014, Syria, viewed 4 Feb. 2014, http://eeas.europa.eu/syria/index_en.htm Frassinelli, M 2013, Lonegan: Solve Syrian conflict with peace, not missiles, The Star-Ledger, 29 August, p. 4. Laub, Z, & Masters, J 2013, Syrias Crisis and the global response, viewed 4 Feb. 2014, http://www.cfr.org/syria/syrias-crisis-global-response/p28402#p3 Marcus, J, 2013, Syria chemical attack: Key UN findings. BBC News, 17 September 2013, p. 2. Mohammed, K 2013, Brahimi: Only a political solution can end Syrian conflict, viewed 27 Jan. 2014, http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/17392 Pichon, E 2013, Syrian refugees: facts and figures (2014). European Parliamentary Research Service, viewed 4 Feb. 2014, http://epthinktank.eu/2013/05/20/syrian-refugees-facts-and-figures-2/ Portela, C 2012, The EU’s sanctions against Syria: Conflict management by other means. Security Policy Brief. EGMONT Royal Institute for International Relations. 38: 1-7, viewed 4 Feb. 2014, http://www.egmontinstitute.be/papers/12/sec-gov/SPB38.pdf Zanders J K (2013). Disarming Syria, , viewed 4 Feb. 2014, http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/disarming-syria/ Read More