Risk Assessment Methods - Case Study Example

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS Name Instructor Course Date Introduction Every workplace has some risks inherent to it. However, through effective risk assessment, it is possible to control risks and their impact to the business and people. Risk assessment is a critical element of health and safety management and a legal requirement for all businesses (Hughes & Ferrett 2016). The goal of risk assessment is to establish plan for controlling risks once hazards have been identified and associated risks assessed (Hughes & Ferrett 2016). There are numerous methods of conducting risk assessment. In this paper, some of these methods are used to analyse fire risk in a university hall of residence. The 5-floor building has 900 rooms, each of which accommodates two students. In total, therefore, the building accommodates 4500 students. There is one main entrance to the building that remains open throughout the semester but is locked when school is closed. There are four smaller entrances (3 feet wide each) at every corner below each of the four stairs serving the first, second, third and fourth floors. However, only two entrances are opened while the other two have locked metallic gates. Possible Sources of Fire in the Hall of Residence Electrical: loose electric connections may produce sparks igniting nearby flammable material such as plastic casings and cable insulators. Students may also use counterfeit electrical appliances such cables and plugs that heat up easily causing fire. Appliances and equipment: electric kettles, water heaters, electric irons, warmers, toasters, microwaves, and cooking equipment may start fire if left unattended. According to the University of Portsmouth, this is the primary cause of fire in halls of residence (2016). Electronics: including computers, printers, and fans Open sources of fire: they include candles, gas cookers, incense, and tobacco smoking. Arson: students may set fire intentionally to harm others or destroy the building such as during strikes Risk Assessment Methods Ticklist A ticklist contains a list of all hazards and control measures. The risk assessor walks around the facility checking every item in the checklist and marking as appropriate as shown in table 1. Table 1: Ticklist Item/question Yes No Action needed N/A 1) Do students cook in their rooms? √ 2) Are students allowed to use cooking equipment in their rooms? √ 3) If cooking in halls of residence is prohibited, is this rule enforced? √ 4) Are students checked to prevent entry of flammable gases and liquids in to the hall of residence? √ 5) Does the university have appropriate rules regarding use of items that increase risk of fire in the halls of residence? √ 6) Are cables and plugs of high quality and in good repair? √ 7) Are fixed plug sockets and electrical switches in good repair? √ 8) Do students smoke inside their rooms? √ 9) Are there rules regarding smoking inside rooms such as illegalising smoking inside rooms √ 10) Are electricity blackouts common? √ 11) Are students allowed to use candles to light their rooms in times of blackout? √ 12) Has there ever been a case of fire caused by use of candles? √ 13) Do students use mosquito coils to kill mosquitoes? √ The ticklist shows that the building is prone to the following hazards, which increase risk of fire: Student cooking in their rooms Possibility of existence of flammable liquids inside the hall of residence Students’ use of heating equipment and other items that might cause fire Students’ smoking in their rooms Possibility of use of candles for lighting in case of electricity blackout Use of mosquito coils Advantages Easy and simple to use, and provides quick answer; Administration is easy, quick, and inexpensive because a person with limited training can administer by simply checking listed factors; and Checklists provide prompts on the critical factors to observe. Disadvantages Since ticklists they require yes/no answers, they prevent provision of more accurate answers. Therefore, in-depth assessment is not possible with ticklists. In addition, they give room for subjective judgement (Health and Safety Executive [HSE] 2016). Experience of reliability vs. workload Although ticklists do not demand excessive workload, their reliability is low especially due to the fact they are open to subjective judgement. SWOT SWOT stands for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Table 2 Strengths A culture of safety among students as evidenced by positive student response during previous dire drills; Electrical cables and appliances are of high quality and always inspected as required Flammable liquids are not allowed into the halls of residence Weaknesses University’s halls of residence rules do not prohibit cooking in students’ rooms Opportunities Safety can be enhanced through: Prohibiting cooking in halls of residence Informing students on safe use of heating items in their rooms Prohibiting smoking inside halls of residence Threats Cooking inside rooms increases risk of fire Use of heating items including iron boxes, immersion heaters, electric cookers, microwaves, and toasters increases risk of fire Advantages This tool is easy to use yet it facilitates deep analysis. Moreover, SWOT facilitates the identification of areas of improvement in enhancing health and safety. Disadvantages It does not provide objective judgement. In addition, assessment is not detailed, resulting to reduced reliability. Experience of reliability vs. workload Although workload is higher compared to ticklist, reliability is questionable. Fishbone Diagram A fishbone diagram is a cause-and-effect diagram that not only identifies a problem but also determines the actual (or potential) cause of the problem (). Assessment starts with the identification of the problem. In this case, the problem is occurrence of fire at the hall of residence. The risk management team then brainstorms all possible causes and categorise them into, for example, people, location, equipment, and method. For every possible cause, the team tries to answer the question, why would this happen? This culminates into a cause-and-effect diagram as shown in figure 1. Figure 1 Advantages Fishbone diagram is easy to implement, facilitates thorough analysis, and helps in getting the root cause of the problem. It provides a visual representation of the risks, causes, and reasons and consequently facilitates easy control of risks (Heldman 2005). Disadvantages It may not be applicable in complex situations involving too many risks and causes. In addition, it may not accurately represent high level of interrelation of problems and causes in very complex cases (Heldman 2005). Experience of reliability vs. workload I found that the fishbone diagram is quite tedious requiring considerable time investment. Nevertheless, since it facilitates thorough analysis, it provides highly reliable results for effective risk management. Bowtie Diagram Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figures 3 and 4 expound on figure 3. The analysis shows that it is crucial to educate students on safe use of iron boxes, which might cause fire if used improperly (placed on carpet when hot) or left plugged after power goes off when a student is ironing out clothes. Advantages Bowtie method facilitates comprehensive risk assessment by enabling risk assessors to identify and assess causes, consequences, and barriers. In addition, risk assessment is presented in a diagram, which makes it easy to understand while outlining areas where action is needed. Disadvantages It may not be appropriate for high complex cases. In such applications, a different Bowtie diagram would be required for every hazard, which would be extremely tedious. Experience of reliability vs. workload This method is rather complex. However, the availability of software that facilitates quick assessment makes it less demanding. I also found it to provide highly reliable information. Risk Ranking (from Ticklist, with Overall Risk Matrix) Figure 5 Table 3 Hazard (possible sources of fire) Probability Impact Score (using risk matrix) Electric iron boxes 5 4 8 Flammable gases and liquids 2 5 6 Open fire from portable cookers and cigarette smoking 3 4 6 Burning material near the building 3 4 6 Electric cookers 2 4 5 Arson 1 5 5 Faulty electrical appliances (plugs, cables, connectors, and switches) 2 2 3 Electronics 2 1 2 Risk ranking method shows that iron boxes present the greatest risk of fire followed by open fire resulting from smoking, use of portable cooking equipment, and burning trash near the building. The university should focus on these hazards to reduce risk of fire. Advantages This method allows for risk prioritisation so that risk managers can direct resources to areas where they will have most impact. Indeed, high-ranking risks require immediate actions. Additionally, risk-ranking method is easily applicable to complex situations. Disadvantages Only highly trained and experienced personnel can use this method especially in awarding probability and impact scores. It may also be impossible to award accurate scores, which may lead to misdirection of risk management resources. Experience of reliability vs. workload I found this method straightforward and highly reliable. It is especially useable in large systems involving multiple events. Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) Table 4 Process/Function/Activity Potential Failure Mode Potential Effect(s) of Failure Severity Potential Cause(s)/ Mechanism(s) of Failure Occur Current Process Controls Detect RPN Recommended action (s) Responsibility and target completion date Action Results Actions Taken Sev Occ Det RPN Students smoking inside their rooms Drops burning filter on carpet Fire starts inside the room 7 Student forgets to press filter hard to put off fire 3 Operator training and instructions 6 126 Ban smoking inside rooms Halls manager and housekeepers Recommended action 7 1 5 35 Electricity blackout, students use candles for lighting Wind blows candle igniting nearby material Fire starts inside the room 8 Window is open 3 Students cautioned on candle use 7 168 Install backup generator Internal affairs department Recommended action 8 1 4 32 Student leaves room leaving a burning candle Candle falls on flammable material starting fire 9 Student forgets to put out candle before leaving 7 Students cautioned on candle use 7 441 Internal affairs department Recommended action 9 1 6 54 Student sleeps leaving a burning candle Fire starts inside the room 9 Student is too sleepy 7   7 441 Internal affairs department Recommended action 9 1 5 45 Ironing clothes Student forgets plugged iron box after electricity goes off when ironing Electricity comes back, iron box heats and ignites nearby flammable material 9 Forgetfulness 6 Fire prevention notices on the notice board 6 324 Install backup generator Internal affairs department Recommended action 9 1 5 45 Student places a hot iron box on the carpet and leaves room Iron box ignites carpet and fire spreads to other flammable material 5 Student is late for class 4 Fire prevention notices on the notice board 6 120 Educate students on safe use of iron boxes Health and safety manager Recommended action 5 3 4 60 Plug is faulty Sparks are generated at connectors burning plug and socket, fire starts 5 Purchase of substandard electronics 2 None 10 100 Educate students on importance of periodic inspection of electric items as recommended Health and safety manager Recommended action 5 1 7 35 Cooking Student forgets plugged cooker after electricity goes off when ironing Electricity comes back, cooker heats up and ignites nearby flammable material 8 Forgetfulness 4 Cooking in the rooms illegal 3 96 Enforce ban of cooking in halls of residence through enhanced checks Health and safety manager, DVC APD, security officer Recommended action 8 2 3 48 Student leaves food cooking to attend to other tasks such as washing or taking a bath Wind blows flammable material getting it in contact with hot cooker, fire starts 8 Open window 3 Cooking in the rooms illegalised 3 72 Enforce ban of cooking in halls of residence through enhanced checks Health and safety manager, DVC APD, security officer Recommended action 8 1 3 24 Student falls asleep leaving cooking food Food dries and starting fire 9 Being too tired or sleepy 3 Cooking in the rooms illegalised 3 81 Enforce ban of cooking in halls of residence through enhanced checks Health and safety manager, DVC APD, security officer Recommended action 9 1 3 27 Cleaning Fire from burning garbage nearby spreads into the building Burning trash nearby the building on a windy day 7 No designated trash burning site 6 None 10 420 Select a designated trash burning site in the field away from buildings Health and safety manager, environmental manager Recommended action 7 1 2 14 Heating (room or food) Heating equipment ignites nearby material Leaving heating equipment to heat up excessively 3 Being sleepy, busy with other tasks. forgetfulness 8 Timers 2 48 Educate students on safe use of heating equipment Health and safety manager Recommended action 3 6 2 36 Use of candles for lighting presents the greatest risk of fire at the hostel especially when students fall asleep or leaves room leaving the candle burning. Installation of a backup generator will eliminate need for candle use, which will in turn reduce the risk significantly. Burning trash near the building also presents a great risk of fire. It is important to select a designated site for burning trash, which should be far away from any building. Advantages It is structured; Based on expertise, experience and collaboration; therefore, assessment is highly accurate; and The method results in objective data used in risk ranking and consequent alignment of resources. Disadvantages Time consuming especially in complex cases; Can only be implemented by experts; and The method is open to bias, which might lead to loss of reliability. Experience of reliability vs. workload This method was easy to use requiring little workload. It is a highly reliable risk assessment method in ranking possible risks, which then aids in directing resources where they will have greatest impact. Fault Tree Figure 6 The table below assigns each event a number and probability of failure Table 5 Scenario Number Failure probability Tobacco smoking 1 0.3 Burning filter dropped on carpet 9 0.2 Hot ash drops on carpet 10 0.6 Candle use for lighting 2 0.4 Burning candle falls on flammable material 11 0.4 Student forgets burning candle, falls on flammable material 12 0.6 Wind blows burning candle setting nearby material on fire 13 0.2 Iron boxes 3 0.5 Hot iron placed/falls on carpet, cloth, or paper 14 0.3 Faulty plug heats up 15 0.1 Cooking inside rooms 4 0.5 Open fire catches flammable material 16 0.7 Student leaves burning/heating cookers in room 17 0.2 Burning trash nearby 5 0.7 Designated burning site near building 18 0.3 No designated incineration site 19 0.6 Heating devices 6 0.2 Left to heat up for extended time 20 0.1 Faulty plugging and cabling 21 0.2 Electronics use 7 0.7 Faulty plugging and cabling 22 0.6 Flammable gas/liquids 8 0.4 Catches fire from nearby source (hot bulbs or heating equipment) 23 0.3 For series network, Rs = R1 x R2 For parallel network, Fp = F1 x F2 F + R = 1 For parallel network, calculate F. Then, using the equation, F + R = 1, get R for each network. F9,10 = 0.2 x 0.6 = 0.12; R9, 10 = 1 - 0.12 = 0.88 F11,12,13 = 0.4 x 0.6 x 0.2 = 0.048 R11,12,13 = 1 – 0.048 = 0.952 F14,15 = 0.3 x 0.1 = 0.03; R14,15 = 1- 0.03 = 0.97 F16,17 = 0.7 x 0.2 = 0.14; R16,17 = 1- 0.14 = 0.86 F18,19= 0.3 x 0.6 = 0.18; R18,19 = 1 – 0.18 = 0.82 F20,21= 0.1 x 0.2 = 0.02; R20,21 = 1 – 0.02 = 0.98 Then calculate R for parallel network . Using the equation, F + R = 1, get F for the network. R1,9,10 = 0.7 x 0.88 = 0.616; F1,9,10 = 1- 0.616 = 0.384 R2,11,12,13 = 0.6 x 0.952 = 0.5712; F2,11,12,13 = 1 – 0.5712 = 0.4288 R3,14,15 = 0.5 x 0.97 = 0.485; F3,14,15 = 1 – 0.485 = 0.515 R4,16,17 = 0.5 x 0.86 = 0.43; F4,16,17 = 1 – 0.43 = 0.57 R5,18,19 = 0.3 x 0.86 = 0.258; F5,18,19 = 1 – 0.258 = 0.742 R6,20,21 = 0.8 x 0.98 = 0.784 F6,20,21 = 1 – 0.78 = 0.216 R7,22 = 0.3 x 0.4 = 0.12; F7,22 = 1 – 0.12 = 0.88 R8,23 = 0.6 x 0.7 = 0.42; F8,23 = 1 – 0.42 = 0.58 The entire system can now be brought down into a parallel network. Therefore, FT = 0.384 x 0.4288 x 0. 515 x 0.57 x 0.742 x 0.216 x 0.88 x 0.58 = 0.00395 RT = 1- 0.002395 = 0.9961 Analysis shows that burning trash nearby and students’ use of electronic devices pose the greatest risks of fire. Nevertheless, reliability is high, which shows that there are adequate measures to control risk of fire. Advantages It helps in identifying root causes of a risk. More so, graphic description provides a clear understanding of all possible causes of a risk. Disadvantages In large and complex systems, it may be impossible to present an easily understandable diagram. In such cases, computer algorithms may be required. Experience of reliability vs. workload This method is extremely tedious requiring considerable time investment especially in drawing the diagram and performing calculations. However, I found that it gives highly reliable information. Reliability Block Diagram The RBD is based on table 5 Using the same approach as in fault tree analysis, F9,10 = 0.2 x 0.6 = 0.12; R9, 10 = 1 - 0.12 = 0.88 F11,12,13 = 0.4 x 0.6 x 0.2 = 0.048 R11,12,13 = 1 – 0.048 = 0.952 F14,15 = 0.3 x 0.1 = 0.03; R14,15 = 1- 0.03 = 0.97 F16,17 = 0.7 x 0.2 = 0.14; R16,17 = 1- 0.14 = 0.86 F18,19= 0.3 x 0.6 = 0.18; R18,19 = 1 – 0.18 = 0.82 F20,21= 0.1 x 0.2 = 0.02; R20,21 = 1 – 0.02 = 0.98 Then calculate R for parallel network R1,9,10 = 0.7 x 0.88 = 0.616; F1,9,10 = 1- 0.616 = 0.384 R2,11,12,13 = 0.6 x 0.952 = 0.5712; F2,11,12,13 = 1 – 0.5712 = 0.4288 R3,14,15 = 0.5 x 0.97 = 0.485; F3,14,15 = 1 – 0.485 = 0.515 R4,16,17 = 0.5 x 0.86 = 0.43; F4,16,17 = 1 – 0.43 = 0.57 R5,18,19 = 0.3 x 0.86 = 0.258; F5,18,19 = 1 – 0.258 = 0.742 R6,20,21 = 0.8 x 0.98 = 0.784 F6,20,21 = 1 – 0.78 = 0.216 R7,22 = 0.3 x 0.4 = 0.12; F7,22 = 1 – 0.12 = 0.88 R8,23 = 0.6 x 0.7 = 0.42; F8,23 = 1 – 0.42 = 0.58 Therefore, FT = 0.384 x 0.4288 x 0. 515 x 0.57 x 0.742 x 0.216 x 0.88 x 0.58 = 0.00395 RT = 1- 0.002395 = 0.9961 From the reliability block diagram, it is evident that the three most risky events, which present the largest failure probability (chances of causing fire), are: Students’ use of electronics Burning trash near the building Students cooking in their rooms Advantages RBD is an analytical method that helps determine the failure rate of the system. When reliability and failure data are properly established and probabilities assigned to each element of the system, it is possible to determine weakest and strongest parts of the system. Disadvantages RBD is a complex method. In addition, errors in assigning probabilities may lead to misdiagnosis. Experience of reliability vs. workload I found this method to be extremely time consuming but highly reliable. Event Tree The event tree analysis shows that heating equipment such as iron boxes, microwaves, toasters, electric kettles, and immersion haters pose the greatest threat as the main possible source of fire in the hostel especially when students leave them ON as they tend to other tasks or after electricity blackout. Advantages This method is rigorous, methodical, and structured. Moreover, it facilitates assessment of probability. Disadvantages Effective use of this method requires training and experience. Most importantly, only one initiating event can be analysed using one ETA. Therefore, in large system having multiple initiating events, several ETAs will be required. Experience of reliability vs. workload This method demands extensive time investment. I only conducted ETA for one initiating event, which took me more than 4 hours. In cases where there are more than 10 initiating events, it would then require days to complete the assessment. However, I found the method to be highly reliable. Comparative Cost Benefit Analysis Heating equipment have been found to pose a great risk of fire in the building. There are three possible actions to control this risk: A1: educate students on safe use of heating equipment A2: illegalise use of high-risk heating equipment especially cookers A3: Install a backup generator to prevent risk of leaving this equipment plugged after power outage Affected groups include: B1: students B2: occupational health and safety department B3: university administration B4: generator supplier Costs can be categorised into: C1: safety C2: money C3: time C4: health C5: lost academic hours Group Cost/benefit Control Option A1: educate students on safe use of heating equipment A2: illegalise use of high-risk heating equipment especially cookers A3: Install a backup generator to prevent risk of leaving this equipment plugged after power outage B1: Students C1: safety +++ +++ +++ C2: money + -- ++ C3: time +++ - +++ C4: health +++ + + C5: lost academic hours +++ + ++ B2: Occupational health and safety department C1: safety ++ + ++ C2: money - 0 0 C3: time + 0 + C4: health 0 0 0 C5: lost academic hours 0 0 0 B3: University administration C1: safety ++ ++ +++ C2: money - 0 --- C3: time - 0 -- C4: health 0 0 0 C5: lost academic hours ++ ++ ++ B4: Generator supplier C1: safety 0 0 0 C2: money 0 0 +++ C3: time 0 0 0 C4: health 0 0 0 C5: lost academic hours 0 0 0 Key: Cost: Benefit: 0 0 - + -- ++ --- +++ Group Cost/Benefit A1 A2 A3 Students +13 +2 +14 Occupational Health and safety department +2 +1 +3 University administration +2 +4 0 Generator supplier 0 0 +3 Total +17 +7 +23 It is highly recommended to install a backup generator, which has the maximum benefit (+23). Illegalising use of heating equipment is the least recommended action. Advantages and disadvantages This method helps in assessing the economic impact of taking necessary actions to control the risk. However, the method does not help in assessing the probability of occurrence of risk. Experience of reliability vs. workload Although this method is quite straightforward, it is not reliable. Optimum Budget Allocation Analysis It is assumed that the institution has allocated $400,000 for safety management for the hall of residence for one year. A backup generator has been found to have the maximum benefit. It will cost the University $300,000 to install one. The remaining $100,000 can be allocated to student training on fire safety and safe use of equipment in their rooms, which ranks second in terms of benefits. Advantages and disadvantages Owing to the fact that financial resources are always scarce, this method helps in ensuring optimal use of available finances in safety management. However, the method does not facilitate risk assessment. Therefore, it is dependent on other risk assessment methods for accuracy. Experience of reliability vs. workload I found this method to be simple but very unreliable. Reflective Comparison of the Methods This assignment provided me with the opportunity to use different methods of risk assessment. More so, I got an opportunity to compare between different risk assessment methods. Of the 11 methods used, I found ticklist and SWOT analysis to be the simplest and straightforward methods to use. I did not spend a lot of time on these two methods. I also found that these two methods do not require training, which means that a person without in-depth training in safety management can use them. However, I found them to be less reliable than other methods. Of importance is that they are not analytical and objective. Therefore, it is impossible to compare between any two or more risks and consequently make an informed decision such as decide where to direct a majority of resources. I was very comfortable and consequently recommend risk ranking and FMEA. I found that these two methods are not excessively time consuming and that they not highly complex yet they are highly reliable. However, they require considerable experience in assigning correct values to each risk otherwise erroneous information may be obtained, which would lead to poor decision-making. Fishbone and bowtie diagram were somehow complicated and time consuming especially in drawing the diagrams. Nevertheless, I found them quite useful in getting root cause of risks. However, they do not facilitate in-depth risk assessment especially so because they are not analytical. Event tree, fault tree, and reliability block diagram combine visual presentation and analytical risk assessment. However, I found that they are extremely time consuming although highly reliable. Their reliability is however dependent on accuracy in assigning probability values. Finally, comparative cost benefit analysis and optimum budget allocation analysis were not time consuming. However, I realised that any of the two requires input from other risk assessment methods. Nevertheless, I found them extremely helpful when taking necessary actions to control risks considering that economic and financial considerations must be factored in. Bibliography Health and Safety Executive 2016, Health and safety checklist for classrooms. [Online] Retrieved from [Accessed March 1, 2016]. Heldman, K 2005, Project manager’s spotlight on risk management. SYBEX, Inc. Hughes, P. & Ferrett, E 2016, introduction to health and safety at work: For the NEBOSH national general certificate in occupational health and safety (6th ed.). London: Routledge. University of Portsmouth 2016, Halls of residence fire safety. 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