Patterns of Fertility in Australia over Last 50 Years - Case Study Example

Patterns of Fertility in Australia over Last 50 Years Introduction Social, cultural, health and economic factors have been known to affect fertility patterns. Fertility patterns throughout the world can be seen through two divisions of developed and developing world. Both these divisions present contrasting pictures to each other. While the developed countries exhibit lower fertility rates, the developing nations present with high fertility rates. The differing economical changes and status of women are considered to contribute to the difference in the fertility rates between the two divisions. The reasons for developing countries to have high fertility rates are generally attributed to poor family planning measures and inadequate hygiene. The relationship between fertility and demographic and socio-economic factors was first postulated by Davis and Blake in 1956. These researchers came up with eleven intermediate variables pertaining to social, biological, cultural and psychological through which these variables must operate. Davis and Blake also talked of industrial mechanism and its relationship with fertility (Tuladhar, 1989). The intermediate variables which were talked about included conception, intercourse, and gestation as the primary ones. These intermediates act both positively and negatively on fertility of individuals in a specific society. Other variables include permanent celibacy, sexual union, contraception, and sterilization, foetal mortality from voluntary causes, post-widowhood celibacy, voluntary abstinence, involuntary abstinence, foetal involuntary mortality, inventory sterility and frequency of coitus. Also one of the dominant factors determining rate of fertility is age at marriage. In many societies socio-economic factors dictate age at marriage. Higher age at marriage reduces reproductive age of a woman and lower age at marriage increases the same. Cultural, economic and social variables keep influencing both higher and lower age at marriage. Several other studies carried out on the subject have further thrown light on the cause and effect of these factors. Shahidullah and Chkrobortyl (1993) have argued that lactational infecundability is pivotal in reducing the fertility. Certain cultures are known to practice this and the concept has transcended from generation to generation, but there are still some which need to be educated about the same. Many studies done on lactational infecundability have concluded that longer breastfeeding by women reduces higher chances of getting pregnant or conceiving. Bongaarts (1983) has opined that breastfeeding alone can explain as high as 96 percent of the variance in relation to postpartum amenorrhea duration. This phenomenon of fertility vis-à-vis demography has now become an established field of study which is researched in the backdrop of demographic transition theory. The transition is normally as one from high fertility rates to low fertility rates as countries progress to an industrialised economic system from an earlier one of pre-industrial system. Demographic transition model explains this change in its entirety on the basis of several interpretations of demographic history which was developed, nearly a century age in 1919, by Warren Thompson (1887-1973), who was an American demographer. Thompson studied changes in industrial societies with respect to birth and death rates in previous 200 years. As on date, a majority of developed nations fall in Stage 4 of the model, and a number of developing nation have reached the model's third stage (Encyclopedia of Population 2, 2003). Fertility Rates in Australia General causes of decline Fertility rate is defined with respect to a woman's childbearing years and total number of children who would be born to her, in accordance with current age-specific fertility rates, in case she lived throughout these childbearing years. As on 2010 fertility rate in Australia was 1.92. If calculated over the last 50-year period, this value was highest in 1961 at 3.54 and lowest in 2001 at 1.74 (IndexMundi.com, nd). As can be seen in most of the developing countries too, fertility in Australia has also been on a decline. The current replacement rate in Australia is 2.1, and as mentioned above, the highest total fertility rate in the last 50 years was in 1961, a period after which the rate started fluctuating between 1.8 to 1.9. This fluctuation was marked in two decades of 1970s and 1980s. During 1990s there was again a steady decline, even though the decline was insignificant because it was small. In 1998 the total fertility rate was 1.76, which further dropped to 1.75 in 1999. Demography and fertility researchers say this was the lowest in the 20th century. One peculiar aspect seen in Australian women is that most of the Australian women have fewer children. This aspect has been examined from all possible parameters like marital status, age at marriage, education or occupation, and labour force participation. The Australian context seems to reiterate the point that socio-economic position and educational attainment are directly related to lower fertility rates (Jackson, 1999). Another interesting observation is that total fertility rate in Australian cities is much lower than the rural areas; while in cities mothers' median age is slightly higher than those in rural mothers. All capital cities had a lower total fertility rate in 1999; even below 1.75 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1999). Many reasons are being attributed to falling fertility rates in Australia. Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data present interesting figures about Australian women. According to OECD reports an average woman's age at the time of her first delivery is 28.3 years, which is the oldest in the world, and only behind Switzerland and New Zealand. This figure pertains to 1993, and has further risen to 29.1 years during 1998. There has been an increasing trend in average age of all women at first birth and this increase has been more pronounced in the last three decades. Australian women have seen preferring children at a later date even if they are married right in time. Consequently, delayed childbearing has an impact on fertility in more ways than one. Firstly, in a given period it results in lesser children being born as each generation is stretched out. Secondly, it reduces overall fertility period of a woman as she delays her first child. Furthermore, previously around 37 percent of around 40-year old women had three or more than three children. For women 30 years of age, this rate has declined to 27 percent at present. That means only 50 percent of total fertility is accounted for by these women. If there is a presumption that these women prefer to have only two children, Australian fertility will touch a concerned fall to around 1.4 (Department of Family and Community Services, nd). The alarming aspect of this projection is that around 22 percent of Australian women aged 30 will not bear any children in future. The following table, as released by Australian Bureau of Statistics in October 2012, gives births and summary statistics for Australia for the years 2001, 2010, and 2011. Fertility Total fertility rate rate 1.729 1.886 1.884 Total fertility rate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mothers(d)(e) rate 2.193 2.575 2.740 Crude birth rate(f) rate 12.7 13.4 13.3 Net reproduction rate(g) rate 0.833 0.906 0.903 Births Males no. 126 298 152 739 154 996 Females no. 120 096 145 164 146 621 Persons no. 246 394 297 903 301 617 Sex ratio(h) ratio 105.2 105.2 105.7 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander  births(e) no. 11 405 16 129 17 621 Nuptial births no. 170 675 196 937 198 342 Ex-nuptial births no. 75 719 100 807 103 098 Median age of mother years 30.0 30.7 30.6 Median age of father years 32.3 33.1 33.0 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012 Macro-level causes of decline Present levels of fertility in Australia, and most notably the decline, can be attributed to certain macro-level factors. These are the key factors deemed as having profound impact on the country fertility rates. On top of the macro-level factors comes newer and easier means of inducing contraception; for example the use of pill and recent advances in reproductive technology. Other contributory factors include life course changes which are responsible for delays in childbearing, delayed formation of partnerships, widespread relationship breakdowns, and financial independence of women in the recent years. These trends are further influenced by changing economy and the labour market. Martin (2003) and Ruzicka & Caldwell (1982) have argued that frequent market downturns trigger financial insecurities and thus affect fertility. However, this explanation fails to reason why fertility levels decreased when market outlooks were relatively positive. Despite that scholars have widely seconded that market downturns and globalisation have had an impact on how couples are torn between childbearing or no childbearing and financial independence or financial interdependence. Financial security is normally a major concern (Saunders, 2001; McDonald, 2000b; Kohler, Billari, & Ortega, 2001). Another factor that determines whether or not couples must plan a child is the costs involved with having one. Several scholars have also linked child labour laws to this dilemma and argued that benefits do not either outweigh disadvantages or are not extendable to increased family size (Kagitcibasi, 1997; Kohlmann, 2002). Allan, Hawker, & Crow (2001) have stressed the point that apart from the costs involved in bringing up children; today's parents would rather prefer to spend quality time with lesser children to enhance their educational and emotional standards than lesser time with multiple children. Opining in context of Australian children, Bittman (2002) has said that Australian parents today are spending more time with fewer children. This way, they are ensuring that they involve themselves with children in a manner that the costs incurred are non-financial. Apart from this, recently factors which are incompatible with parenting have emerged. Coleman (1999) has remarked that today's parents lay specific emphasis on freedom, autonomy and realisation. Mackay (1997) has remarked that young adults do not want to 'tie themselves down' as they want to keep their options open. Crittenden (2001) has remarked that today's society, by and large, has become intolerant to children and parents', especially mothers', values have diminished. Mothers, on the other hand, lose their financial opportunities if they were to bring up multiple children. Andersson (2005) has remarked that if the fertility rates have to be increased, this is the area in which government will have to develop policies that ensure women that their opportunities will not be lost if they give birth to multiple children. Government, it is held, can change the fertility scenario in Australia in a major way. These policies may not be limited only to child care policies but also to income support system, taxes, family-work responsibilities and even educational policies. Even though at present there is not enough work that can enumerate impact of government policies on fertility rates, but some work has begun in this direction elsewhere. In France, for example, Laroque and Salaníe (2005) stated that when policies reduce family burden of childbearing and child upbringing, fertility rates tend to increase. They postulated an increase of 5 percent in fertility rates if the there was a 25 percent reduction in private cost of children. Using data from 16 OECD countries for a period of 20 years ending 1999, d'Addio and d'Ercole (2005) remarked that when government payment supported families, there was an increase in fertility rates. The effect was ripple in nature on other factors associated with families like higher rates of employment in females, increased willingness of female workers for part-time jobs and higher parental leave replacement wages. With this research as the background, Grant et al. (2004) noted that in order to encourage an environment in which couples can plan childbearing only one policy was not enough to trigger the mechanism. Multiple policies are needed for this trend to take off, Grant observed. Conclusion Firstly, this paper has introduced how developed and developing nations respond to social, cultural, economic and health factors with regard to their fertility trends. Developing countries show a remarkably higher fertility rates than the developed countries. Keeping in view the historical context of fertility rates, eleven intermediate variables were discussed in brief. These variables have either positive or negative impact on fertility rates. In Australian context, fertility rates have decreased over the last fifty years with an intervening gap when the rates touched an all-time high. Weak economy and frequent economic downturns are believed to affect fertility rates on account of higher financial instability associated with the same. In addition to this, absence of government policies favouring multiple children is a factor that affects fertility rates of a nation. To expect higher fertility rates, government is urged to develop support mechanisms that support families as their children grow. References Allan, G., Hawker, S., & Crow, G. (2001). Family diversity and family change in Britain and Western Europe. Journal of Family Issues, 22(7), 819-836. Andersson, G. (2005). A study on policies and practices in selected countries that encourage childbirth: The case of Sweden (Working Paper WP 2005-005). Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 1999, 1999 Year Book Australia, Cat. No. 1301.0 Bittman, M. (2002). The effects of time pressures on mothers' health. Paper presented at the Seminar Series, Australian Institute of Family Studies, 19 September, Melbourne Bongaarts, R. and Potter, R.G. (1983). Fertility Biology and Behaviour An Analysis of The Proximate Determinants ‐ Academic Press New York. Coleman, D. A. (1999). Reproduction and survival in an unknown world: What drives today's industrial population, and to what future? (NIDI Hofstee Lecture Series No.15). The Hague: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute. Crittenden, A. (2001). The price of motherhood: Why the most important job in the world is still the least undervalued. New York: Henry Holt. d'Addio, A., & d'Ercole, M. (2005). Trends and determinants of fertility rates in OECD countries: The role of policies (OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 27). Paris: OECD. 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