Changing Demographic Trends, Patterns and Projections - Assignment Example

Changing demographic Trends, Patterns and Projections Countries across the globe undergo changes in the demographic patterns, being influenced by several factors. These changes in demographic patterns from a stable population to achieve a different level of stability have been defined by demographers as demographic transition (PCI, 2005). This process results in changing trends in population patterns. Table 1: Population Growth Rate Comparison Source: PRB (2010) The above table compares the population of different countries as reported in the year 2010 against the population prediction for the year 2050. A demographic transition is very much observable in this data. These statistics clearly suggest the way in which population patterns are changing across the world. The most observable data in this table is that of Japan. Japan is not only a developed country but also the most densely populated country in the world. As per the statistics of Population Reference Bureau, the population of Japan in 2010 was 127 Million (PRB, 2010) .This must be read together with the fact that, Japan is the most densely populated country in the world. Interestingly, the population projection of Japan suggests that by the year 2050, the population of Japan will undergo a negative population growth phase of the demographic transition. The number of people in Japan is going to reduce to 95 million. This is a remarkable reduction of 25 percent. In the cases of other countries as shown in the above table, the population is growing, though at a varied pace. In the case of Nigeria and Bangladesh, the population is going to be double in the next forty years. In all the other countries, the rate of growth is lower than fifty percent. Interestingly, the lowest population growth is estimated in China, which is close to seven percent. Resultantly, in the year 2050, China will be successful in pushing India forward to become the first in population and will take a second position in terms of population. Scope of challenges of demographic transition Analysis of this statistics reveals a particular trend in the population growth. It can be observed that the developed countries are showing lower rates of increase in population rates. In some cases as that of Japan, it is even declining. In other terms Japan is undergoing negative population growth phase. In the case of America, the population growth is 36.45 (PRB, 2010) .In developing countries like China as well, this trend can be observed. The rate of population growth in China is just 7.39 percent. Another similar case is that of Brazil. Brazil has a projected population growth of only 11.39 percent. On the other side, countries like Nigeria and Bangladesh are expecting its population to get doubled. Bangladesh is listed as one of the least developed countries. While considering the case of Nigeria, it must be noted that it is already the most populous county in Africa and it is a developing economy. From this analysis, it is evident that the developed countries are having either a decline or a lower rate of growth in their population. Even in the case of Unites States, the population growth is only 36.45 percent. (PRB, 2010) Data suggests specific reasons for this trend in the developed nations. The lower rate of population growth and the decline in population growth can be connected to ageing of the population, higher death rates and low birth rates. As background information to this analysis, it is important to understand the distribution of population between the less developed countries and more developed countries. Only close to 18 percent of the worlds’ population lives in the more developed countries. 82 percent out of a global population of 6,892,319,000 live in the ‘less developed’ nations. (PRB, 2010) In comparison to this, the analysis of the birth rates, death rates and the trends in ageing would indicate reasons of changes in the population pattern as suggested by the table above. The policies of the governments with reference to the developmental needs of the nation determine these variables which in turn influences the population patterns. This suggests the correlation between the development of a nation and the population of the respective country. Factors affecting demographic transition There are several factors which promotes demographic transition. Some important factors among them are Fertility-mortality ratio, change in age structure of the population and policy interventions by the governments. Fertility Mortality Ratio Table 2: Comparison of fertility and mortality in different countries Source: (PRB, 2010) The statistics as given in the table above is important as it provide evidence for specific trends in population projection. Firstly, taking into account the case of China, it can be observed from the above table that deaths and births are proportionate to each other. This only includes the cases of natural increase in population. When cases like infant mortality and other accidents are added to it, this leads to decline in population. Thus this data supports the estimation that Japan’s population is going to decrease from 127 million to 95 million. It can be observed that the percentage of natural increase in population is highest in Nigeria. The percentage of natural growth in population is 2.4. Reading this together with the percentage of increase in the projected population of 2050, it can be found that Nigeria is expected to have a population growth of 106 percent (PRB, 2010). However, in the case of Bangladesh, though the population growth percentage by 2050 is very close to that of Nigeria, it can be found that the percentage of natural increase in population as depicted in the above table is quite different from that of Nigeria. Similarly, the percentage of natural growth of India and Bangladesh are similar. However, while considering the projected growth by 2050, it can be observed that there is a massive difference of over 50 percent between India and Bangladesh. Thus it can be assumed that there are several other factors which influence the actual population. One major factor affecting this is the rate of migration. Changing age structure of the population Table 3: Age wise structure of the population and pattern in family planning Source: (PRB,2010) This table sheds light on the reasons of increase or decrease in population rates. It correlates the rates of natural increase in population with the policy of governments and also with the age wise distribution of population. In the case of Japan, it can be found that 23 percent of its population has grown older than 65 years. (PRB, 2010). In the case of United States as well, the statistics is alarming. This data justifies the reason due to which Japan’s population is declining. Countries like Nigeria, India and Bangladesh have very low percentage of aged people. This also refers to the productivity of a country’s population. This would make the country spend more on social security and welfare of the public. Taxpayer’s money will be utilized for the welfare of the aged. This observation is important as the percentage of aged population will affect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which in turn will affect the development index of the nation. It has been observed that the developed countries generally have an ageing population and the developing countries have less number of aged people. The table also includes data on the usage of contraceptive measures. In the case of countries where there are no interventions in terms of government policies, the usage of contraceptives is relatively low. This is quite evident in the case of Nigeria, which reflects the lowest usage in the above table. The case of China, which has imposed policy measures so as to control its population growth, has been reflected in the table above. References PCI (2005), Population Growth: Trends, Projections, Challenges and Opportunities, Planning Commission of India, New Delhi, Govt Press PRB (2010), World Population Data Sheet 2010, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, PRB Read More