Climate Change and Vulnerability Analysis for Turkey - Case Study Example

Climate Change and Vulnerability Analysis for Turkey Introduction Climate change is an issue that the international community is continually trying to solve due to its adverse effects on human activities. Generally, climatic condition on the Earth surface is becoming warmer. It has been projected that there has been an increase of about 0.89 0C in the global mean surface temperature since the start of 20th century (Sen 2013, p. 05). This is attributed to large emissions of greenhouse gases due to burning of fossil fuels and deforestation by human beings. Changes in climate involve long-term shifts of weather conditions including temperature, winds, and precipitation changes among others. Changes in climatic conditions can entail changes in variability and average conditions that include extreme events. The changes in climate are not distributed uniformly across the world as indicated by the climate models. The high-impact regions and the most vulnerable to future changes in climate are those in the Mediterranean Basin (Sen 2013, p. 05). Turkey is among the countries in the basin. This report determines and projects future hazards and sensitivity in response to climate change in Turkey. Basic Climate Pattern for Turkey As earlier stated, Turkey is situated in the Mediterranean Basin. The climate of different parts of the country varies. Mediterranean climate is experienced in the western and southern coastal areas, but climate is more complex in north and eastern parts due to a number of factors. The Black Sea in the north, extremely varied topography and the Russian plain which acts as a source of cold air are some of these factors. In general, it is cold in winter and hot or warm in the summer in Turkey (Onol, & Semazzi 2009, p. 1944). The data prepared by various international organisations such as World Bank and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) shows changes in temperatures and precipitation over the last 50 years. In summer, the southern coastal parts of the country are mostly sunny and dry. In winter, Turkey’s coasts are milder than inland. Coastal areas have higher annual mean temperatures as compared to that of inland. Much of precipitation in Turkey is received in colder months (Sen 2013, p. 10). Moreover, more precipitation is received in the coastal areas than inland. History of Climate-Related Disasters Climate change has been experienced in Turkey through extreme weather conditions, changing precipitation and higher temperatures. This has led to increased weather-induced disasters such as cold waves, wildfire and floods. Turkey is vulnerable to some climate-related risks and threats. The key natural disaster in Turkey is earthquake, but vulnerability to flooding is also experienced in the coastal plains (Pollner, Kryspin, & Nieuwejaar 2010, p. 10). Floods have caused considerable damage in Turkey with an average of one flood experienced yearly. For example, in 1998, Turkey was hit by its worst floods in the last 100 years as it affected 4 cities and it damaged many houses and people (Pollner, Kryspin-Watson, & Nieuwejaar 2010, p. 10). Cold waves and extreme temperature has also led to the loss of lives in the country over the last decade. The statistics and data from various sources show that floods have been the cause of major disasters as it occurs more often than the others. Moreover, when it occurs, it affects many people and destroys many properties. The climate change induced disasters that have occurred in Turkey continues to affect sectors such as agriculture, water, energy, population, biodiversity and fisheries. The maize yields- the country’s major crop has dropped due to climate change (Yuksel 2014, p. 511). Flora and fauna in the Mediterranean are sensitive to climate change. As the eastern Mediterranean Basin is basically land-locked, the rapid increases in sea surface temperatures that have been observed in the past two decades will result in water mass stabilization and salinization (Yuksel 2014, p. 511). The reduction of nutrient to surface waters affects marine biodiversity. In the energy sector, extreme heat waves threaten to disrupt electricity supply because of scarcity and warmer cooling water. Turkey receives considerable number of tourists, but the sector is sensitive to direct climatic impacts. Increasing temperatures and shortages of water negatively affects tourism as it restricts operation of tourist facilities. This also affects fisheries. The future of urban life in Turkey could be negatively affected by climate change related hazards in the form of heat waves and droughts (Sen 2013, p. 21). Furthermore, production of heavy downpours due to excess heating of the surface carries the possibility of occurrence of urban floods. Past and Present Climate Trends and Risks There has been reported past catastrophic events due to climate change in Turkey. Severe flooding and earthquakes have caused numerous loss of life and destruction of property. Temperature and precipitation changes and rising sea levels are attributed to these occurrences. The average temperature of 2000s in the summer is nearly 1.5 0C more than the averages of 1960s and 70s (Sen 2013, p. 14). The north-eastern parts have experienced increase in precipitation with natural hazards set to rise due to increasing temperatures everywhere in the country. In general, there has been no significant change in precipitation except consistent increase in north-eastern parts. On average, Mediterranean coastline receives an annual precipitation of 730mm, Black Sea coastline is about 850mm, the central plain is 400mm and eastern parts receive 580mm (Sen 2013, p. 14). It is projected that these scenarios will change in the future. Future Climate Change Projections Turkey is among the mid-latitude countries which are expected to have variations in climate changes in the future. By the end of 21st century, temperatures in the country are projected to increase by a margin of 2.5 0C and 5.0 0C (Sen 2013, p. 15). In addition, temperature is expected to increase in the whole country and the surge will be higher in winter as far as eastern parts of the country are concern (Osberghaus et al., 2013, p. 32). On the other hand, precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern region while an increase is likely to occur in northern parts. By the end of the century, precipitation is projected to reduce by 30% in the Mediterranean coastlines (Turkes, Koch, & Saris 2009, p. 11). As for the sea level, projections indicate that it will rise. Trends in Future Projected Hazards and Effects on various Sectors The projected changes in climate will cause some hazards and undesirable effects in Turkey. There will be wildfires, desertification, droughts and lack of water resources in the country (Sirdass, Sen, & Oztopal 2013, p. 121). As temperatures set to increase, sea level to rise and precipitation to increase or decrease depending on the area, the hazards and perturbations caused by these scenarios are likely to worsen. The increase in temperature and precipitation decreases in some parts will lead to severity and frequency of drought to be greater (Pollner, Kryspin-Watson, & Nieuwejaar 2010, p. 15). Moreover, combination of drought and heat waves will exacerbate conditions hence leading increases in incidences of forest fires. Flooding is a hazard that would probably increase and caused huge destruction. In essence, all these hazards will affect various sectors and have an impact on people and their living conditions. Population of Turkey is structured in such a way that some regions are highly concentrated. Interior lands are less populated than the coastal areas. Vulnerability due to climate change increases because of regionalization. In the case of drought and heat waves in more concentrated urban areas, there will be many negative effects in terms of loss of lives and destruction of property. Agricultural sector is prominent in Turkey. However, the yield per hectare is low in comparison with other European countries such as Belgium (Sen 2013, p. 24). The situation will worsen given the adverse effect that climate change will have as per the climatic projections above. In the tourism sector, increasing temperatures will likely affect beach and sun tourism in a positive way in Turkey. The tourism season is likely to be extended as warm season sets to lengthen. The energy sector is set to benefit through high potentiality of wind and solar energy. However, it is projected that water potentials in Euphrates and Tigris- Turkey’s major basins are expected to reduce which will negatively affect future generation of power from hydraulic sources. Immediate, Underlying, and Root Causes of Floods in Turkey Human beings are vulnerable to effects caused by adverse weather conditions due to change in climate. Floods in Turkey are expected to worsen in the future because of changes in temperature. It is one of the most catastrophic natural disasters when it occurs. Floods are caused by various factors. The location of Turkey especially its mainland in the Mediterranean macroclimatic region makes it susceptible to flooding (Ceylan, Alan, & Ugarlu 2007, p. 416). The complex topographic features, climatic features that are spatially distributed and proximity to water are the immediate causes of floods in Turkey (Ceylan, Alan, & Ugarlu 2007, p. 416). The underlying causes of floods include the continental polar air mass in winter which causes rain showers in frontal system zone and less intense rainfall, as well as snow in inlands. The root causes of floods pertain to human activities. Continuous deforestation in the last three decades has increased the possibility of flooding due to increase of sediment loads in the river. Rapid urbanisation has led to the construction of settlements that have inadequate flood control structures hence enhancing chances of flood occurring and causing damages. Solutions and Adaptation Turkey is vulnerable to many disasters hence programs to minimise its adverse effects is needed. Vulnerability refers to the degree to which a certain system has a likelihood of experiencing harm because of hazard exposure (Fay & Ebinger 2010, p.15). As the country is struggling to deal with its vulnerability of water resources and dwindling agricultural areas because of climate change, a solution is needed. One of the low-cost adaptation and mitigation measures that promote long-term sustainability and complements efforts to reduced poverty involves drafting of policies on food security (Ministry of Environment and Urbanisation 2011, p. 33). Most of the policies in the agricultural sector should be tailored towards supporting adaptation to effects of climate change. This solution will counteract the causes of vulnerability to climate change by ensuring that the country adapts and mitigates to change in climate through proper following of good policies. Conclusion Climate change has threatening effects that need to be addressed by all the stakeholders concern with the issue. Accelerating rise in sea level, floods, heat waves, droughts and storms are the catastrophic effects of global warming. Change in climate is threatening production of food, supplies of drinking water and the realisation of sustainable development all over the world (Tayanc, Im, Dongruel, & Karaca 2009, p. 484). In addition, climate change has adverse implications for social, economical and political policy. Since a change in climate affects various disciplines and people, strategic plans and policies need to be developed especially countries that lie in Mediterranean Basin like Turkey. In order to achieve this, understanding of climate variability in Turkey is paramount as it gives insight into the significant changes in precipitation and temperature. References Ceylan, A., Alan, I., & Ugurlu, A 2007, Causes and effects of flood hazards in Turkey. In International Congress of River Basin Management, pp. 415-423. Fay, M, & Ebinger, J 2010, ‘A Framework for Developing Adaptation Plans’, In M Fay, RI Block, MO Ebinger (eds), Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, World Bank Publications, New York, pp. 13-16. http://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr/files/publication/GFDRR_DRM_and_CCA_ECA.pdf. Ministry of Environment and Urbanization 2011, Turkey’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan, General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works, retrieved 24 February 2015, >http://www.dsi.gov.tr/docs/iklim-degisikligi/turkeys-national-climate-change-adaptation-strategy-and-action-plan.pdf?sfvrsn=2. Pollner, J., Kryspin-Watson, J & Nieuwejaar, S 2010, Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation in Europe and central Asia, World Bank Publications, New York. Sen, O.L 2013, A Holistic View of Climate Change and Its Impacts in Turkey, Istanbul Policy Center, retrieved 27 February 2015, . 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