Climate Change and Its Impact on Tourism Destinations - Essay Example

Climate Change and its Impact on Tourism Destinations Copyright Global warming has become a global issue for concern within the recent pastand the impact of such a warming will influence tourism trends. Greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere due to the burning of oil and coal has resulted in a build up of these gasses in the atmosphere that trap solar radiation and increase temperatures around the globe. Thus, tourism contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and it is also influenced by global warming. Higher temperatures will have an impact on both winter and summer tourism because the mountainous regions will become unreliable for winter sports and the beaches are likely to be affected by rising sea levels, heatwaves and storms. Popular tourism destinations will fail to deliver the expected and a few surprises may be in store for the tourists who will want to switch to more convenient destinations, altering existing patterns and trends. This essay presents a discussion about the impact of global climate change on tourism destinations. Declaration I certify that, except where cited in the text, this work is the result of research carried out by the author of this study. _____________________________________________ Name and Signature of Author December 2008 This write - up is for an essay on Climate Change and its Impact on Tourism Destinations. Biographical Sketch Acknowledgements Contents Introduction 1 The Impact of Global Warming on Tourism Destinations 4 Conclusion 17 Bibliography/ References 19 List of Figures Figure 1: Decline in the Snow-Reliability of European Ski Areas under Present Conditions and with 1, 2 and 4 degree Centigrade warming 6 Figure 2: Rising Average Annual Mean and Summer Mean Temperatures in Slovenia 8 Figure 3: Declining Rates of Annual and Average Summer Precipitation in Slovenia 8 Figure 4: The Impact of Climate Induced Increased Sea Level and Flooding on Atlantic City, New Jersey in the Year 2100 10 Figure 5: Decline in Demand and Weighted Annual Growth Rates for Tourism in Selected Developing Nations by the year 2020 13 Figure 6: The Change in Arrivals and Departures because of Climate Change as a Percentage of Arrivals and Departures without Climate Change with Countries Ranked according to their Average Annual Temperature in 1961 – 1990 14 (This page intentionally left blank) Introduction Weather is important for tourism because often tourists are drawn to a destination by considerations associated with a need to experience that which depends on the climate (Becken, 2007, pp. 6 – 10). Climate is a resource for tourism and an essential ingredient in the tourism product and experience. Without the proper climate, it is not possible for tourists to indulge in activities such as skiing which may have been the reason for their desire to visit a place. On the other hand, unreasonably cool and wet conditions on a beach are likely to deter tourists because they cannot swim in the ocean and indulge in sunbathing. Thus, climate has multiple and complex interactions with tourism and although tourism is affected by global warming, tourism also contributes to global warming. Transporting tourists to tourist destinations requires expenditure of large amounts of energy and the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. Also, human activity associated with tourism that is directed towards fulfilling the needs of tourists can place a burden on the environment of a destination (Holden, 2008, pp. 68). Global climate is changing because of the increased concentration of GHGs. Because of the burning of hydrocarbons and the voracious appetite for energy displayed by humans, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has risen from 280 ppm prior to the industrial age to a 380 ppm today. The previously mentioned figure will further increase to 970 ppm by the end of the 21st Century (Southgate, 2007, pp. 1 – 7). Global climate change is a complex phenomenon that is the result of increased levels of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere coupled with the increasing concentration of methane, chlorofluorocarbons, nitrous oxide, nitrogen oxide, non-methane hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide as well as precursor gasses that are involved in ozone and methane chemistry. However, models based on enhanced concentration of carbon dioxide to predict temperature elevation and precipitation change are more often used (Cline, 2007, pp. 23 – 26). The GHGs possess a chemical structure that enables them to absorb and re-emit heat, which is incident on earth in the form of solar radiation. Methane is 24 times more efficient at retaining heat as compared to carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide is 296 times more efficient (Holden, 2008, pp. 212 – 214). However, carbon dioxide addition to the atmosphere is the most prolific because of all human activities involving combustion of natural carbon stock including oil and coal. Although industrialized nations in North America and Europe have produced up to about 70 % of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, soon India and China will join them (Holden, 2008, pp. 212 – 214). By the year 2010, China will overtake United States of America as the largest emitter of carbon dioxide, in the absence of any efforts to modernize the nation’s industry and to improve its emission control regulatory standards. Thus, a need exists for global cooperation on controlling the emission of GHGs. Global warming and climate change will lead to melting ice caps, rising sea levels, reduced snowfall and loss of biodiversity as well as changing ecosystems (Holden, 2008, pp. 215 – 218). Climate is a natural resource exploited by tourism and it can range from favourable to unfavourable from tourism perspective (Hall, 2005, pp. 30 – 40). Individuals engage in tourism freely and they will select a destination only if climate is suitable. Weather forecasts and on-site weather can influence decisions about selecting a tourism destination. In addition, a destination directly affected by changing climate and rising sea levels that alter beaches or limited snowfall that prevents skiing keeps tourists away. The Hamburg Tourism Model, a mathematical model based on econometrics developed to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism, predicts that international tourists will prefer higher altitudes and latitudes (Bigano, 2006, pp. 1 – 2). Thus, global warming will affect local earnings, the local economy and the future of tourism ventures. This paper presents a discussion about the impact of global warming on tourism destinations. The Impact of Global Warming on Tourism Destinations Tourism as an industry is important to the world and it produces about 7.3 % of total worldwide exports (Bigano, 2005, pp. 1 – 3). Many local economies are heavily dependent on tourism which is the first source of income and a major foreign exchange earner for some countries. Thus, climate change has an impact on tourism destinations because climate decides the relative attractiveness of destinations and if a destination attracts a lower number of tourists, it suffers economically. Tourism demand forecasting is important for the tourism industry because tourism demand decides what earnings can be made by all those involved in tourism ventures and the local economy. Although predicting climate is not an exact science, it is expected that global warming will result in an increase in the number of natural disasters and this means that the catastrophic impact of climate change on tourism cannot be neglected (Holden, 2008, pp. 224 – 225). The occurrence of hurricanes, cyclones and draught are linked with climate change and these occurrences have a disastrous impact on tourism. Hurricane Katrina clearly showed that even the richest nation in the world can find it difficult to cope and tourism gets suspended in a region which is struck by a natural disaster. Coastal areas and mountainous regions which attract tourists are more likely to be affected by a global warming. Warmer weather melts snow and this renders mountainous regions more susceptible to avalanches and landslides. Coastal areas can be adversely affected by rising sea levels and a higher inclination for being affected by storms. In the European Alps, the recent warming that has taken place is three times the global average and the years 1994, 2000, 2002 and 2003 were the warmest in the past 500 years (Agrawala, 2007, pp. 11). A decline in snow cover at lower altitudes, receding glaciers and melting permafrost have caused about 9 % of the Alpine ski areas in Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland to become marginal. Germany is the most sensitive to global warming and a single degree Centigrade rise in temperature leading to a 60% decline in naturally snow – reliable ski areas (Agrawala, 2007, pp. 11 - 20). On the other hand, Switzerland is the least susceptible to warming presumably because of its higher mountains and lower industrial activity. The figure presented below presents an indication about the decline in reliability of ski areas in the countries of the Alpine region of Europe. Although adaptation measures, such as artificial snowmaking have been tried to ensure that tourists can continue to ski in the Alps, such efforts are expensive and add to the budget of the tourists. Thus, tourists have switched to the more reliable ski areas, causing tourism operators and the local economy to suffer in certain areas. Already, earnings of certain enterprises involved in tourism related activities in certain areas of the European Alps have declined by 20 – 25 % (Becken, 2007, pp. 38 – 40). Figure 1: Decline in the Snow-Reliability of European Ski Areas under Present Conditions and with 1, 2 and 4 degree Centigrade warming (Agrawala, 2007, pp. 35) Slovenia is a country in Europe for which tourism is important (Cegnar, 2007, pp. 254 – 259). This country has been experiencing a gradual increase in average temperatures over the years, as shown in the figure below and precipitation has been declining. Slovenia offers well-preserved natural landscapes and a rich cultural heritage. Glacial valleys, gorges, waterfalls, lakes and crystal-clear wild waters attract sports climbers, skiers, rafters, canoeists, gliders and other tourists. However, the changing climate which is beyond the control of all those that are involved in tourism threatens natural beauty and protected and rare species in the country’s national parks, including the Triglav National Park. Underground rivers in the karst terrain, wetlands, lakes and waterfalls are being affected by the climate change which acts as an added burden on the fragile ecosystem that is already under threat from activities associated with tourism. Figure 2: Rising Average Annual Mean and Summer Mean Temperatures in Slovenia (Cegnar, 2007, pp. 258) Figure 3: Declining Rates of Annual and Average Summer Precipitation in Slovenia (Cegnar, 2007, pp. 259) The draught in Spain in the early 1990s that had an impact on the island resort of Majorca had an impact on tourism because of the scarcity of water (Perry, 2000, pp, 3 – 5). Water had to be transported from the mainland to sustain the island of Majorca during the draught. It has been suggested that other islands in the Mediterranean, including Crete which is a popular tourist destination, can suffer from serious water shortages in the coming years. A luxury hotel is said to consume about 600 litres of freshwater for every guest for every night of occupancy and thus, the impact of a draught on tourism can be devastating. Extended heatwaves are becoming more common in Europe and the heatwave of the year 2003 was a particularly severe one for France in which many people died (Perry, 2000, pp. 3 – 6). Italy, Cyprus, Greece and Spain were also affected. Short duration heatwaves which last for about 3 – 5 days have seen a pronounced increase in the Mediterranean region. In the years 1989 – 1990, there were 230 short duration heatwaves as compared to a mere 52 in the years 1950 – 1952. Heatwaves can result in the closure of beaches, sunburnt tourists and dead and decaying fish on the seashore. Although the swimming season can begin early if the temperatures are high, rapidly deepening depressions that bring severe gales and storms can disrupt tourism. The figure presented below pictures what is likely to happen to Atlantic City in New Jersey, USA because of climate induced rising sea level by the year 2100. It is clear from this figure that rising sea levels pose a serious threat to many tourism destinations. Figure 4: The Impact of Climate Induced Increased Sea Level and Flooding on Atlantic City, New Jersey in the Year 2100 (Williamson, 2008, pp. 11) In the milder climates of North America, climate change is likely to exert a significant influence as rising temperatures restrict recreational choices for many individuals (International Institute for Sustainable Development, 1997, pp. 3). There is a broad agreement among researchers that rising temperatures in the Prairies will lead to reduced water levels in lakes and other inland reservoirs of water. Plant growth in inland water reservoirs and lakes will be increased and individuals are likely to find it somewhat more difficult to swim, fish, sail or water-ski. However, higher temperatures will extend the season that is the most right for tourism. Wildlife is likely to be affected because species will move with the changing ecozones and rapid climate change may result in some species becoming extinct. Thus, hunters and wildlife watchers will have a more limited choice of areas in which to pursue what they find interesting. Winter activities will also become restricted because of a shorter season and because higher temperatures will reduce tourism for reasons that are similar to those for the Alpine regions of Europe. However, it is important to consider climate change impact for local communities instead of the whole Prairie region which is quite large. The global community is acting to try to reduce the trend for a global climate change by reducing emissions, imposition of carbon levy and by forcing airlines and industry to modernize by incorporating equipment that produce less pollutants (Gossling, 2008, pp. 873 – 875). Newer aircraft that consume less fuel are likely to replace the older aircraft and efforts are under way to try to cap an increase in emissions. On July 4m 2006 the European Parliament voted to introduce a fuel tax on aviation fuel for flights originating from 26 countries in Europe. The previously mentioned tax has been passed on to passengers making air travel slightly more expensive. However, efforts to control global levels of emissions and rising fuel prices are likely to have an impact on tourism to developing nations of the third world. These nations are far from the developed world and are the so called long-haul destinations which are generally more expensive to travel to. Thus, although the larger developing economies may be in a position to carry the economic impact of lowered levels of tourism, but the developing economies of various islands will be more seriously affected because of the dependency of such islands on tourism. However, it is expected that the growth in the number of tourism arrivals as compared to the baseline will continue to increase as sketched in the figure presented below (Gossling, 2008, pp. 886). Figure 6 which is also presented below pictures the change in arrivals and departures from various countries because of climate change as a percentage of arrivals and departures without climate change. Note: Figure (a) pictures the overall decline in demand from countries by 2020 Figure (b) pictures the weighted annual growth rates of tourist arrivals for countries Figure 5: Decline in Demand and Weighted Annual Growth Rates for Tourism in Selected Developing Nations by the year 2020 (Gossling, 2008, pp. 886) Figure 6: The Change in Arrivals and Departures because of Climate Change as a Percentage of Arrivals and Departures without Climate Change with Countries Ranked according to their Average Annual Temperature in 1961 – 1990 (Berrittella, 2004, pp. 4) It is likely that developing nations will see a decline in demand for tourists from the developed world that is further away, but regional tourism will increase. Thus, Sri Lanka is expected to experience a decline in the demand by tourists from Germany, USA and UK but an increase in demand is expected for tourists from India. Implementation of a more rigorous policy for controlling climate change in the future will only make matters worse for the far-flung developing nations (Gossling, 2008, pp. 887 - 889). The less attractive countries of the developing world are expected to see tourism decline as a percentage of overall GDP and this means that tourism will no longer be an important activity for the national economy in some countries of the developing world. It must be understood that although weather is an important consideration in the selection of a tourism destination by tourists, this is not the most important consideration (Hamilton, 2005, pp. 4). Studies that attempted to survey German tourists suggest that landscape was considered as being the most important consideration in the selection of a tourism destination and weather was ranked third. Thus, natural beauty and climate were important considerations that were carefully considered in a decision to select a destination. The decision to indulge in tourism is decided by push – pull factors that psychologically motivate individuals to travel. The push factors are the social and psychological factors that motivate individuals to travel and the pull factors are the qualities associated with a destination. However, although weather is a consideration, it has not been the most important consideration, but if regulatory measures designed to control global warming coupled with the increasing prices of fuel make tourism expensive and difficult to afford then tourists will be forced to take a careful look at the choice of their tourism destinations. Under the previously mentioned circumstances tourists are likely to prefer destinations that are closer to home and cheaper to visit regardless of their climate. If climate were to be the most important consideration in tourism then it could be predicted that tourists in European countries will remain at home instead of visiting neighbouring countries because the climate of countries in the region are likely to be similar (Berrittella, 2004, pp. 2 – 4). Distance from an origin country, the per capita income of the country being visited, country specific attributes and climate combine to decide which country tourists are more likely to visit. From what has been presented in the previous paragraph, it is clear that although climate is an important consideration in predicting how many tourists are likely to visit a destination, it is not the only consideration. However, the economic impact of being able to attract a lower number of tourists remains obvious in terms of economic losses for everyone involved in tourism and the dampening effect on GDP. Despite climate playing a role in deciding the number of visitors that various destinations are able to attract, it is estimated that the global impact of climate induced change in tourism is likely to be small to the year 2010. It is by the year 2050 that global climate change is expected to lead to a non- negligible global loss for tourism (Berrittella, 2004, pp. 21 – 23). Perhaps the fact that all of the currently popular tourism destinations are likely to be affected may explain the previous observation because tourists will have to select from destinations that are all affected to varying degrees. Thus, Western Europe and the energy exporting nations are likely to be negatively affected and Mediterranean, which is currently the world’s prime tourist attraction, is expected to become far less attractive. However, although the national or global economies may be able to carry the impact of global climate change on tourism, those that are involved in this human activity as business people are more likely to be affected with the communities that depend on tourism for income. The income that the prime locations used to enjoy may shift to new tourism locations that had been previously neglected. Conclusion It is clear from the previous discussion that global climate change will have an impact on the flow of tourists and their choice of tourism destinations. Changing weather patterns will influence both winter and summer tourism as mountainous regions become unreliable for winter sports and the beaches will be affected by rising sea levels, heatwaves and stormy weather. Global climate change will have an impact on ecosystems and adversely impact islands that are popular with tourists. 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