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Forecasts for the Year 2011 for Hughes Travel PLC - Coursework Example

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The paper "Forecasts for the Year 2011 for Hughes Travel PLC" highlights that the model summary provides the statistics of the model that help us in analyzing the accuracy of the model. MAPE of the model is 5.3%, which is more than the MAPE of the model with exponential smoothing…
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Forecasts for the Year 2011 for Hughes Travel PLC
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Download file to see previous pages The tithe me interval of data collection for both the variables is a month. As both the variable data is independent of each other, hence, we have two univariate time series. The data does not depict a particular trend.
Figure 1 of appendix A shows the month wise distribution of UK residents travelling abroad. The graph shows that the highest number of UK residents travel abroad during the months of August, September, and July. The graph shows that August has had the highest number of UK residents travel abroad and it has happened consistently for the past 25 years. Similarly, figure 2 of appendix A shows the cumulative data on UK residents travelling abroad on a yearly basis. The data shows a steady rise in the number of UK residents travelling abroad with the highest the being the year 2010. Figure 1 in appendix A also depicts that UK residents travel least during the months of December, January, February.
Figure 3 of appendix A shows the cumulative sum of overseas travellers on a monthly basis. The data shows that overseas travellers travel most during the months of July and August, which is the busiest season for travelling. The months of May, June, September and October show similar travelling patterns and more or less the same number of overseas travellers travel during those months. Figure 4 of the appendix shows that the rate of Overseas UK travels has risen considerably from the previous years and it was the highest in 2010 from the past 25 years whereas the years 2007-2009 saw the lowest travelling statistics. This probably has to do with the recession and the credit crunch during these years. Figure 5 displays the overseas travelling statistics distributed over the 25 years. The graph clearly shows that not once in the period of 25 years, the months of July and August have never seen a decline in the number of overseas travellers as compared to other months. Moreover, the graph also shows that as the years 2007-2009 were an all-time low for overseas travellers, the number of travellers declined to their lowest during the July-August of these years as well. ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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