Macroeconomic forecast paper - Essay Example

In order to compare the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by different s or organizations I used the indicators provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Economist Intelligence Unit, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), the Federal Reserve, the Comerica Bank and the Bank of Montreal Financial Group.The national unemployment rate forecast by the CBO for 2005 is indicated at 5,2 % (n.d.,n.p.). For the 2006 and next few years in a row the figure stays the same. However, the Bank of Montreal Economics Department has a different perspective on the issue of unemployment dynamics: the decline of unemployment rate from 5,5% in 2005 (which is significantly higher than CBO's estimate) to 5,3 % in 2006 (which is still higher), is foreseen (Egelton, 2005, n.p.).

The NCES distinguishes three possible scenarios and, moreover, provides different figures for men and women and different age groups. For 2005-2006 the NCES's forecast of unemployment rate for the middle alternative variant is as follows: for women 25 years or older - between 4,4% and 4,7%; for men from corresponding age group - between 4,4% and 5,2% (n.d., n.p.).The forecasts of the inflation rate calculated at national level vary even to a greater extent. The experts of the Economist Intelligence Unit estimate this indicator at 2,8% level in 2005 and at 2,7 % in 2006, predicting that it will "remain relatively contained" (2005, n.p.).

At the same time their colleagues from the Federal Reserve also think that the inflation rate would go down in 2006 in comparison with 2005, but expect different figures - 2,6% and 2,5% correspondingly (2005, n.p.). Another figure provided by the Federal Reserve (n.d.,n.p.) is annual estimate of inflation rate for the next ten years, which equals to 2,5 %. The Comerica Bank experts seriously question the Feds assumptions, forecasting the lowest limit for inflation rate in 2005 at 2,5%, with the increase to "just over 3%" in 2006 and minor decrease in consequent years. (n.d., n.p.)Reference list:1.

Comerica Bank. Economic Outlook: 2004-2005, and Beyond (2006-2008). (n.d.) Retrieved May 21, 2005 from www.comerica.com/cma/cda/main/0,1555,1_A_1183,00.html2. Egelton, R. (2005, April). Bank of Montreal Economics Department: North American Outlook. Retrieved May 21, 2005 from Bank of Montreal Financial Group Economic Research and Analysis site, www.bmo.com/economic/regular/naotab.html3. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Economic Research: Survey of Professional Forecasters. (2005, May). Retrieved May 19, 2005 from www.phil.frb.org/econ.spf/index.htm4. National Center for Education Statistics.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2006. Chart 1.- Summary of forecast assumptions. (n.d.) Retrieved May 18, 2005 from http://nces.ed.gov/pubs/pj/p97chart.asp5. The Congressional Budget Office. CBO's Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2004 to 2015. (n.d.). Retrieved May 19, 2005 from www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfmindex=1824&sequence=06. The Economist Intelligence Unit. Forecast. Country briefings: United States. (2005, April). Retrieved May 19, 2005, from http://www.economist.com/countries/USA/PrinterFriendly.

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