Seasonal Decomposition Output - Essay Example

Seasonal Decomposition Output Question 1 1. Over the last few reporting periods, the market share for 11:00 local news among four television stations in a large city has been Description ABC CBS NBC Fox Share 18% 28% 36% 18%  During the latest rating period, all of the stations have increased their promotional spots in hopes of gathering more viewers. A sample of 250 viewers shows the preferences below. Description ABC CBS NBC Fox Frequency 44 82 112 12  The station’s summer intern conducted a chi square test and obtained the output shown below.  Chi-Square goodness-of-fit results: N DF Chi-Square P-Value 250 3 31.657143 6215 Variable Sample Mean Std. Err. DF T-Stat P-value Spending 6378.2 223.4715 39 0.73029446 0.2348  Which of the following is correct? Assume an alpha of 0.05. The evidence is strong enough to reject the null hypothesis. The bank should market the card. The evidence is strong enough to reject the null hypothesis. There is no need to market the card. The evidence is not strong enough to reject the null hypothesis. The bank should market the card. The evidence is not strong enough to reject the null hypothesis. There is no need to market the card. Answer the following question: Essay questions 1. An insurance company is examining its automobile collision claims in order to understand what factors might contribute to the size of a claim. It analyzes data from 40 claims, including the year and model of the car, the age of the driver, the weather conditions, and other information from the police report. Considering what you have studied so far in BUS 305, suggest an analytical process that would be appropriate for the insurance company to use to predict the size of a claim. Support your suggestion with explanations. SOLUTION Regression analysis is the most appropriate analytical process that would help predict the size of the claim. The analytical process is appropriate since it estimates the relationship between the variables 2. Exhibit 3 provides time series data. Create a time series plot of this data. In your essay, describe the features you find and explain which of these four forecasting methods—linear trend, nonlinear trend, seasonal decomposition, or simple exponential smoothing—would be best suited for forecasting. The values of Y exhibit an upward trend i.e. the values have maintained a steady increase thus the linear trend would be more appropriate to be used for the forecasting purposes. The forecasting equation for the linear trend model is given as: Where  is the time index. The parameters  and  (the "intercept" and "slope" of the trend line) are usually estimated via a simple regression in which Y is the dependent variable and the time index t is the independent variable. 3. The ABC Company has an issue. An employee has filed a lawsuit alleging that ABC Co. has engaged in discriminatory employment practices in which women are not paid the same as men for the same work. Working with legal counsel and human resources, you (an analyst) have been asked to help assess the validity of the claim made in the lawsuit. If the claim is supported by the company analysis, they will seek to settle the lawsuit by adjusting salaries of current female employees, so your secondary objective is to estimate these costs for the company, if appropriate.The company has prepared a regression model using data from 16 employees. The output appears in Exhibit 4. Salaries were entered in $000's so coefficients measure thousands of dollars. The three independent variables are Years Worked, Education, and Male?, where 1 = Male and 0 = Female. Write a three paragraph report for ABC’s Vice President of Ethics, Compliance, and Social Responsibility addressing these goals of problem solving: articulate the main issues of the business decision, use evidence in the decision process, and justify conclusions and develop recommendations. SOLUTION Looking at the analysis table, we observe that 85% of the variation in the dependent variable (salary) is explained in the model. At 5% significance level we observe that the variable for male is significant in this model. The coefficient for the male is 15.459, implying that a unit change towards being a male results to an increase in the salary by 15.459; it is thus evident that the male employees are paid 15.459 times more than their female counterparts. It is therefore necessary for the management to consider adjusting the current salaries of the female employees if at all equality is part and parcel of their goals. Read More