Population Decline in Latvia - Essay Example

The causes and consequences of population decline in Latvia from 20th to 21st century In the twentieth century, the population of Latvia has shown a consistently declining trend. This essay analyzes the major events in Latvia’s history in the twentieth century and their impact on the population. Further, the recent trends in demographic factors, the consequences of the population decline and specific policies taken by the government to stem this decline and also reviewed. Latvia is one of the three Baltic countries in east Europe. The total area of 64,589 sq Km and a perimeter of around 1100 Km. The Baltic Sea forms its natural boundary on the West. It is flanked in the north by Estonia and the south by Lithuania, the other two Baltic countries. Russia lies on the east of Latvia. Belarus forms its southeast boundary. Latvia is a multi ethnic and multi cultural country. The Latvians form the largest ethnic group. The Latvians are an Indo-European race. They are descendants of the tribes that settled on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea around 4000 years ago (Hiden & Salmon, 1994). Apart from Latvians, the country has many other nationals and ethnic groups like Russians, Belarus, Poles, Germans Jews and Muslims. These people came into the country during different phases in history and their proportion in the overall population has changed substantially over time. During the medieval times, Latvia’s economy was mainly based on agriculture. The Baltic Germans came into Latvia in the 12th century. Though they were a minority, they ruled over Latvia till the Latvian independence in 1918. Most of the ethnic Latvian population were landless agricultural labourers or serfs. They mostly lived in the rural areas till the latter part of the nineteenth century. In the early nineteenth century, the social structure changed in Latvia and the most of the serfs were emancipated. Industrialisation flourished in the Latvian cities at that time. Large numbers of landless peasants migrated into towns and cities from rural areas in search of employment (Lorimer, 1946). The first official census of Latvia was conducted in 1897. Out of a total population of 1.93 million, Latvians accounted for 68.3%. Russians, Jews, Germans and Poles accounted for 12%, 7.4%, 6.2% and 3.2% respectively. Lithuanians, Estonians, Gypsies and other nationals brought up the remainder (Iwaskiw, 1995). This composition of the various ethnic groups of the multiethnic country underwent drastic changes over the twentieth century. At the turn of the century, there were widespread social changes in Latvia. At that time, Latvia was under the Russian rule, though, for all practical purposes, the Baltic Germans controlled all the land, administration and commerce. The landless conditions of the peasants and the privileges of the landed gentry led to a widespread discontent. The constant suppression of civic rights and freedom under the Russian rule and the attempts to ‘Russify’ the Latvian population further drove them to discover their national identity. The 1905 revolution won Latvians some concessions from the Russian authorities, primarily in local governance and recognition of Latvian language in official work. However, these events gradually weakened the stranglehold of the Baltic German minority over Latvia. The First World War had a devastating effect on the population of Latvia. Initially, the Latvians had viewed this as a conflict between the Russians and Germans and chose to side with the Tsarist Russia. However, by August 1915, the German army overran large areas of Latvia. Some 500,000 Latvians fled the country, some on their own will and others on orders from Russian officials. The Russian officials also dismantled majority of the industrial installations of the area and transported them to Russia, along with around 90,000 workers. In all, more than a third of entire Latvia’s population was displaced (Rauch, 1974). After the First World War, Latvia proclaimed independence on 18th November 1918 and the People’s Council of Latvia formed the provisional government. The era of the de facto Baltic German rule in Latvia ended. Many left the country while others stayed back without their earlier privileged status. There was a period of independence, from 1918 till the Soviet Russia under Stalin annexed Latvia in 1940. This period was of relative prosperity and economic growth. During this period, the population recovered somewhat after the massive decline associated with the First World War. The population in 1935 had been 1.9 million compared to 1.93 million in 1897. The number of Latvians in the population rose by 155,000 to 77% of total. This was the highest ever percentage of Latvians in the total population. Percentage of all other ethnic groups in the total population declined, primarily due to emigration. This change was most pronounced among the Germans, whose numbers dropped from 121,000 in 1897 to 62,100 in 1935. Jews declined from 142,000 to 93,400 in the corresponding period (Iwaskiw, 1995). During this period, the Latvian government was run under the benevolent dictatorship of Karlis Ulmanis. During the mid thirties, international tension in Europe was increasing, with Germany becoming more powerful under Adolf Hitler. At that time, both communist USSR under Stalin and Germany were scheming to get the Baltic region in their control. On 23rd August 1939, Soviet Union and Germany signed a non-aggression pact that included a secret understanding of dividing eastern Europe into spheres of influence. This treaty is usually referred to as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and by this treaty the Baltic states came under Soviet sphere of influence. Subsequent to this treaty, a massive population transfer took place. Practically the entire German speaking population of Latvia were relocated to Nazi occupied western Poland. This caused a sudden drop in population, to the tune of 3.25% of the 1935 Latvian population. In June 1940, the Latvian government under Ulmanis was dismissed and the Red Army of USSR overran the country. This was followed by a puppet government being installed and Latvia becoming a region in the USSR. During the following year, thousands of pro democracy Latvians were either killed or deported. Naturally, no confirmed data is available for the actual population loss. However, there were some specific instances that involved large-scale deportations that had been reported. For example, on 14th June 1941, cattle cars carried over 15,000 Latvians to exile in Siberia where most of them died (The Latvian Institute). It is estimated that in the first year of Soviet rule, Latvia lost 35,000 people to deportations or executions (Iwaskiw, 1995). Most of the deportees were the elite of the society, like teachers, scientists, businessmen, politicians and army officers, who could have opposed the Soviet regime. Significant population depletion happened during this period through executions and deportations. There was a brief respite in the Soviet regime during the Second World War when the occupation of Latvia passed from the Soviets to the Germans. However the Second World War had a devastating effect on the population of Latvia. By July 1941, the Nazi army had occupied entire Latvian territory. Under the German occupation, anyone who opposed the regime or was accused of cooperating with Soviets was either killed or send to concentration camps. During the Second World War, both the Soviets and the Germans conscripted Latvians in their armies. The Soviets incorporated units of independent Latvians in their rank and file and also enlisted Latvians who were residing in Russia. The Germans also mobilized some of the existing Latvian army units. Initially they also recruited through voluntary enlistment camps but from 1943, Latvians were forcibly drafted into the Latvian SS Volunteer Legion. During the war, an estimated 200,000 Latvians fought on either side of the forces and around half the number was killed in action (The Latvian Institute). The ethnic group in Latvia that was worst hit by the World War II were the Jews. As per the 1935 census, there were 93,479 Jews in Latvia, which formed 4.8% of the total population. Out of this, several thousands were deported by Soviet authorities to Siberia on the pretext of their being undesirable elements. Few thousands more could flee into the interior parts of Russia before the German occupation. An estimated 75,000 Latvian Jews fell into the hands of the Nazis. Out of these, some 70,000 lost their lives in concentration camps. Together with the Jews, around 18,000 Latvians and 2000 Roma were exterminated (The Latvian Institute). In 1944, the Nazi army started to lose out to the Allies in the Baltic region. Towards the end of 1944, almost the entire territory of Latvia was again taken over by the Red Army. With the advancement of the Red Army, around 200,000 Latvians tried to flee the country to escape the oppressive Soviet regime. While many thousands lost their lives or were captured, around 150, 000 refugees eventually ended up in exile in North America and Australia. The Second World War depleted the Latvian population to a great extent. Estimates put this figure at half a million, 25% of the total population in 1939 (The Latvian Institute). It also altered the ethnic composition of the population in a major way, decimating the Jews and the Roma. The post war soviet era saw further depletion in the population, particularly that of Latvian origin. After the Red Army pushed back the Nazis from Latvia, it became one of the fifteen Soviet republics. The entire power was concentrated with the communist party and those who opposed them were usually deported. There were widespread reforms in the agricultural systems. The Soviet system of collective farming was forcibly imposed upon Latvian peasants. There were resistance movements by the Latvian partisans and widespread oppression followed. There were large-scale deportations and on 25th March 1949, more than 40,000 Latvians, mostly peasants, were deported to Siberia (Iwaskiw, 1995). Deportation continued to be a significant factor in reducing the Latvian population till the death of Stalin in 1953. During this period between 1940 to the first post war national census in 1959, the number of Latvians reduced from 1.5 million to 1.3 million (Centre of Demography, Latvia). In percentage terms, it was 62% of total. With each successive census, the percentage of Latvians in the population decreased steadily. It was 56.8% in 1970, 54% in 1979 and down to 52% in 1989. During the Soviet era, heavy industries were set up in Latvia. Most of the industrial workforce was from Russia and some from Belarus. Due to its strategic location on the coast of the Baltic Sea, Latvia was militarily very important to the USSR. Military and naval establishments were set up in Latvian territory and this further increased the Russian population within Latvia. The Russian percentage population in Latvia increased from 8.8% in 1935 to 26.6% in 1959. At present, Russians form the largest minority group in Latvia. During the post war period starting 1945, the population of Latvia increased steadily up to 1989. However, natural causes had little effect on this increase. There were large-scale emigration and immigration and the net effect was a continuous, slow increase. In each year, a net average of 11,000 to 15,000 non-Latvians can to settle in Latvia. This increase accounted for more than 60% of the overall population increase (Iwaskiw, 1995). In the mid eighties, there was a liberalization movement within the Soviet communist regime. This phenomenon was known as the Glasnost. This was followed in the late eighties by the process of restructuring, called Perestroika. In this environment, free elections were held in 1990 and the supporters of independence gained power. Eventually, Latvia gained independence from Soviet rule on 21st August 1991. This was followed by gradual emigration of non-Latvians that accounted for an overall drop in population. Thus, while there were 905,515 Russians, 119,702 Belarus, 92,101 Ukranians and 22,897 Jews as per the 1989 census, these figures dropped to 703,243 Russians, 97,150 Belarus, 63,644 Ukranians and 10,385 Jews as per 2000 census. In percentage terms, Russians dropped from 34% to 29.6%, Belarus from 4.5% to 4.1%, Ukranians from 3.5% to 2.7% and Jews from 0.9% to 0.4% in the corresponding periods (Centre of Demography). The main reason for this out-migration had been the declaration of Latvian independence. With independence came a shift in political power from the communists who were aligned towards Moscow to the Latvian group. Further, the new government imposed new Latvian language requirements in certain categories of jobs. Many of the non-indigenous population felt alienated by these developments and chose to emigrate. The 1994 official estimate of Latvian population was 2,565,854, which was smaller than the 1989 census figure of 2,666,567. For the first time since 1945, there was a drop in the total population. Apart from the net emigration detailed earlier, the other significant factor was the negative natural growth in the population. The difference between the birth rate and the death rate in a population is its natural growth rate. Deaths outnumbered births for the first time in 1991, and the net natural decline in population for that year was 116. This figure progressively increased to 3,851, 12,438 and 17,501 in 1992, 1993 and 1994 respectively. It stayed at 17,336 in 1995 but then improved somewhat. The net natural decline was 14,538, 14,703, 15,790 and 13,448 in 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999 respectively (Centre of Demography). The post independence period had been a period of uncertainty in Latvia. There was a great deal of economic trauma as the new country tried to move from a totalitarian economy of the Soviet regime to a free market economy. During this period of uncertainty, many families postponed having any additions in the family through birth. The fertility indicators in Latvia have been consistently showing a declining trend. Even before World War I, the total fertility rate in Latvia had been a little under 3.0 births per woman. This is lower by 10% than what is required for a full replacement of a generation (Centre of Demography). The total fertility rate is steadily declining since late eighties. The total fertility rate dropped from 2.05 in 1989 to 1.39 in 1994 and further to 1.15 in 1999. The total fertility rate reached its lowest in 1998 at 1.09. This figure is the lowest in the history of Latvia. Consequently, Latvia has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. One of the most major reasons of the low fertility rate is a sharp drop in number of marriages. The number of marriages was 24,496 in 1989, which steadily declined each year. The total marriages were 11,572 and 9,399 in 1994 and 1999 respectively. The number of divorces each year for the corresponding periods was 11,249, 8,416 and 6,211 respectively. The decline in divorces is lower than that of marriages and the number of divorces per thousand marriages is 459, 727 and 639 for 1989, 1994 and 1999 respectively (Centre of Demography). The divorce rates, at more than 5.5 per thousand populations, rate as on of the highest in the world and a major cause of concern to the policy makers. The decline in the institution of marriage has led to increased instances of births outside wedlock. The percentage of live births out of wedlock was 12.5% in 1980. This went up to 16.9% in 1990 and 43.1% in 2002. The number of abortions is also very high. There were 69 legally induced abortions in 2003 per 100 live and stillbirths. The average life expectancy at birth in Latvia was 65.25 years for males and 75.16 years for females. This dropped sharply to reach 60.72 years for males and 72.87 years for females in 1994. More than 80% of this decrease was due to mortality in the working class population. The current life expectancy is 65.9 years for males and 76.9 years for females (2003). These figures are among the lowest in Europe (Centre of Demography). A low fertility rate has resulted in an ageing population in Latvia. The median age is 39.4 years. Only 14% of the population are from 0-14 year age group. 69.6% of the population lie within the 15-64 years bracket and 16% are above 65 years. Concentrated efforts have been made by the government of Latvia to formulate policies that would propagate growth in population. Various types of incentives are being provided to families in the form of childbirth and childcare benefits and family benefits. Under these schemes, financial assistance is provided to families to support the costs of childbirth and subsequent childcare. The government of Latvia has recently instituted the maternity benefit that provides financial support for the period of pregnancy and subsequent maternity leave of up to 112 days. These efforts have shown marginal improvement in the demographic figures in the twenty first century. Though the population declined from 2,399,248 in 1999 to 2,331,480 in 2003, the total fertility rate has shown a slight increase. From a low of 1.15 in 1999, it has increased slightly year on year and stands at 1.29 in 2003. The negative natural increase figure of 13,448 has dropped slightly to 11,431. Even marriages have increased slightly from 9,399 in 1999 to 9,989 in 2003 and divorces dropped significantly from 6,010 to 4,828 for the corresponding periods (Centre of Demography). The 2006 total population is estimated to be 2,274,735. The main obstacle to population growth in Latvia is the lack of adequate childcare. Most families have both the spouses working and cannot afford long periods of neo-natal care. Latvia has close to 100% adult literacy rates. The prevalent social structure is such that the parents try to provide their children a better education and standard of living than they themselves had. Given the current situation of economic and political turmoil, the families are unsure of their being able to provide such facilities to their children. This is causing postponement of child bearing in many families. If Latvia were to increase the growth in population, it has to put in place policies that would supplement the efforts of families to provide better standard of living for their children. This would translate into increased government spending in providing better healthcare and education. Extended maternity support like reduced work duration till up to two years of childbirth and longer periods of state sponsored maternity and paternity leaves will act as incentives to childbirth. Positive encouragements like higher financial support for multiple children would help the cause. Increased numbers of government-sponsored crèches will help nuclear families to take care of their children. The population of Latvia has been showing a negative natural growth for many years now and the ageing population will very soon cause a severe strain on the available productive workforce. Strong measures are needed to reverse this trend, which calls for increased government spending. References Centre of Demography, University of Latvia. Website address: http://www.popin.lanet.lv/en/stat/stat.html. Hiden, J, & Salmon, P. (1994). The Baltic Nations and Europe: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the Twentieth Century. London, Longman. Iwaskiw, W.R. (1995). Latvia: A Country Study Washington D.C., GPO for the Library of Congress. Lorimer, F. (1946). The Population of Soviet Union: History and Prospects. Geneva, League of nations. Rauch, G.V. (1974). The Baltic States: the years of independence : Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania : 1917-1940. Translated to English by Onn, G. London, C. Hurst & Co. The Latvian Institute. History of Latvia: a Brief Survey. Website address: http://www.li.lv/en/?id=16 Read More