The impact of the one-child family policy on the age structure of China population - Essay Example

Introduction The population changes in any country are usually accompanied by economic, social, and political changes. Inmost developing nations like china, the population growth rate is rapid which has an impact on the size and structure of the population as a whole. China has one-fifth of the global population, making it the most populated country. The optimum population in China was in the year 1960 but recently, the population in china has been reduced to a rate lower than one percent of the whole population. In china, the effect of population growth rates was felt before when food production, agriculture and the economic growth was less than the population growth rate. Recently, this equation has been altered due to the decreasing population growth rates in china and the increasing food supply in the economy. In this paper, the demographic transition as described includes the mortality rate, fertility rate, population growth rate and age structure is discussed. The policies implemented in the China concerning the conception of few children, the problems are associated with the rapid population growth, and the economic implications of the same are analysed. The economic implication is analysed in terms of labour force and employment. The demographic transition During the last 60 years, the demographic changes in China took place and are considered historical. The reduction in the mortality rate in china in the past few years led to the increase in the population growth rate. Later the fertility rate reduced due to policies leading to a low growth in the population rate. Presently, China is in a ‘post transitional’ stage whereby the fertility rates have reduced to a rate below the levels of replacement in the economy and the aging population is estimated to be at the horizon. In future, the Chinas population is expected to be low and this will eventually cause china to be regarded as one of the unpopulated countries in the world1. In china the shifts in the demographic factors have been attributed to mortality, fertility age structure and the population growth rate. Apart from these factors, which normally cause the demographic transition, China has experienced migration and urbanization2. Since the middle of the 20th century, china has witnessed a rapid demographic transition followed by fertility decline and prolonged periods of life expectancies. The transition in the Chinas population has ranged from high fertility, a high death rate and low growth in population attributed to low fertility rate, low death rates, and lastly a decrease in the rate of natural growth. Within a period of less than 40 years, china finished its demographic transition and concentrated on the aging society. In 2012, China had a crude death rate 7.15 per a thousand people in a population. The crude birth rate in china was estimated to be 12 per a thousand people in a population in the same year. The age structure is important in a population since it explains about the shares carriage by various age groups within the whole population. In the 1960s, China had a large population made by the young people. This made the country to have difficulties in maintaining the crude birth rate in the late 1980s3. China started to have economic reforms in the last two and half decades whereby the Chinese leaders established population controls in reducing the population. The leaders believed that population control was the key to economic growth in the per capita income. From 1950s top the early 1970s, the population of China grew rapidly at a rate averaging to over 2% per annum. In the second period of population growth, the population in China had decreased by more than half because of use of policies by the government leading to limitation of the population growth rate. Figure showing Chinas demographic transition The demographic transition in china has been grouped into four major stages. The stages include the pre-modern stage characterized by high fertility and combines with the high mortality rate to generate a low rate of population growth. This implies that the rate of growth of the population and its absolute size has stabilized. The reason as to why there is a population growth in China is because of the urbanization. Industrialization is one of the underlying factors of the growth in population too. In the mature industrial stages of population growth, the success of this is as a result of mortality and the fall in the fertility. In China, there are different views raised in order to reduce the rate of fertility in order to increase the demographic transition. It is argued that an increase in development can lead to the demographic transition. This is because, if the population has a higher living standard, then the rate of population is deemed to reduce to a reasonable level. In addition, the demographic transition can be effected by educating the general public and using family planning policies. One child policy in China The Chinese government in the late 1970s and the early periods of 1980s introduced this policy. The policy was aimed at limiting the birth rate and reducing the rate for a one child per family unit in china. This policy also is aimed at reducing g the enormous population in china and reducing to reasonable levels. Chinas population was rapidly growing towards the one billion mark in the late 1970s. In effect of this, the Chinese leaders started implementing policies aimed at reducing this population to reasonable levels in china. Therefore, in 1978, a voluntary program organized by the government as, implemented in order to encourage most of the families to have no more than two children. In 1979, the policy was made stricter due to the increasing demand of limiting the population growth. In 1980, the government already had formed some policies aimed at standardizing the limit of children to be one in the whole country. September 25, 1980 was set as the official day of starting the one child policy in the whole china4. The aim of this program was universal, but in the process, various exceptions were made. The exceptions to this policy were for parents who were within some ethnic groups of minorities and those whose firstborns were handicapped. The implementation of this policy was mostly in the urban areas here the families were small and willing to reduce the population by agreeing to that policy of one child per family. In the rural areas, it was difficult to implement this policy because the people living in those areas resisted. This made the enforcement of this policy uneven, with it being lenient to the people living in the countryside and strictly for the people living in the major cities in the country. This made to the introduction of several, methods that were aimed at enforcing this policy. The methods included using contraceptives, offering financial incentives, and offering employment to those people who agreed to those policies. In addition, other method devised in order to impose this policy was the imposition of economic sanctions to those who did not adhere to those policies, and also strict measures such as forced abortions were used and sterilization of the people was also imposed in order to reduce the population of the people. However, the implementation of this policy in the recent past has changed to a reduction of the punishment to those people who violated the policy, but instead, policies aimed at rewarding the people who have adhered those policies was implemented. The result of this one child policy in China is the overall reduction in the fertility rate and rates of birth after the 1980s. In the mid1990s, the fertility rate started declining to two children per family, which was offset by a decline in the death rates. In overall, the rate of natural increase in china declined towards the end of the 1990s5. Apart from reducing the population growth in the economy as a whole, there were other consequences attached to this policy. The population of the Chinese economy was skewed towards the production of more men than women. Since the male is considered inheritors mostly in the rural areas, getting a female as a first-born led to more abortions of the female fetus. It also led to increase in female child abandoning in orphanages and this widened the gap between the males and females with few females available for marriage. Another result caused by this policy was an increase in the proportion of older people as compared to younger people. This was a concern to the general population since mostly older people usually relied on the young people to support them when they are old. This also led to hiding of children from the authorities. The children lived in hardships and it made it hard for them to obtain education and employment at the same time. Efforts were made in order to change the one-child policy. There were additional exceptions made for most Chinese families living in the rural areas to have families ranging from two to three children. Into the bargain, they were allowed to have an extra child if the firstborn child was a girl. The policy was announced to be ended at the beginning of 2016 by the Chinese government. Aging population structure problem and its economic implications In china the population of people who are aged 60 years and above is expected to rise at a rate more than 30% by the year 2050. As a result of the population of china aging, the ratio of individuals who are aged 15-64 years of age has grown to rapidly reach its peak, but it’s expected to decline in the coming future. The labor force dependents on the population of people who have the ability to work, therefore a reduction in the population of younger people is going to lead to a decrease in the supply of labor force in the coming decades in china lead to economic failure or importation of labor6. The changes in the population age structure has allowed china to have various economic changes since the mid of 1960s. The decline in the ratio of dependency has led to the formation of a productive age structure with a lot of labor supply in the market. The Chinese demographic changes have led to 15-25% economic growth and the rate of savings has improved from 5-21%. With the rapid changes in the age structure, the end of 2013 signifies depletion of the demographic dividend. However, when the working population reduces, this will cause an increase in the wages offered to the industrial workers. The origin of the aging population in China is because of low fertility rate in the economy, an increase in the life expectancies and a combined effect in birth and death rates. In china, the decline in the fertility rate caused by the one child policy has changed the age structure in china. Longer survival of the aged people is also one of the major factors in population in China. If the aging population is the cause of Chinese downfall in the economy, then China has to devise some policies in order to reduce its effect. Educating the laborers is one of the measures used to limit the effect caused by aging. This can reduce the effect because when the few working classes are trained on various activities they can handle more work efficiently. In the short run, this is the only effect, which can cause an increase in production. In the long run, china has to, mobilize the workforce poorly utilized and the workers who are dormant and giving them tasks. The availability of labor in china will spur china towards an economic growth while boosting its GDP per capita. China has been boosted in its economic growth by the shift in the production from agricultural sector to industrial sector. As the population in china ages, more focus will be put at caring and maintain the health of these people and therefore, China has embarked on programs aimed at mitigating the chronic conditions in the elderly people7. This makes the elderly people live longer in china. The governments can use pension schemes in order to benefit the elderly people in the population. China like the other countries relies on its neighbors, has a strong pension scheme allowing the elderly people to benefit from its support. The pension schemes are a very serious scheme whereby the population in China is faced with. When the life expectancy of the overall population in China rises, it means that the duration of retirement rises in China. If the population made by the working class in provinces found on the interior parts are made to be more productive, the economy in china will improve therefore making it possible to take care the old people. The economic growth in china is however expected to reduce a change attributed to the increase in the aging population and reduction in the birth rates. Additionally, apart from these reasons, the rate of population growth is expected to decline because as most of the countries develop, they experience a slowing growth in the economy at large. Conclusion The demographic transition in china has changed gradually because of a replacement of a large population growth with a slow population growth. This change in population is attributed to a one-child policy implemented by the Chinese government. The aging population is unlikely able to cause economic problems in china since there are many people in China who are job seekers. In addition, more than enough people are available to take care of the elderly people in the society. Policy reforms in china including the pension sector, one child policy, and education policies will make the China move to a period of economic growth. References Allès, Élisabeth. 2003. "Thomas Scharping, Birth Control in China, 1949-2000. Population Policy and Demographic Development." China Perspectives 1-4. Feng, Wang. 2004. "THE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTOR IN CHINA’S TRANSITION1." China’s Economic Transition: Origins, Mechanism, and Consequences 1-52. Islam, Nazrul. 2009. "Resurgent China Issues for the Future." palgrave macmillan 52-71. Judith Banister, David E. Bloom, and Larry Rosenberg. 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in China." PROGRAM ON THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY OF AGING (53): 1-42. Peng Xizhe and Guo Zhigang. Malden, Mass. 2000. 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