An Assessment of Risks in Romania - Term Paper Example

Risks in Romania Introduction Risk is the potential loss of something of value. When it is not handled properly or if the country is not well prepared to face it, it can cause grate harm to the countries. This harm may be directed to the countries economy of population. This paper is going to talk of some of the ten risks that have the potential of facing. Some of the identified risks have been categorized into four which includes the natural risks, transportation risk, technological and civil risks. How risks were selected According to the group of national steering on emergency management that is major, risk assessment and hazard analysis were accomplished at the regional and local level. Hazards identified at the level if agency and department and also those in the process were assessed in the process of risk assessment. These hazards were categorized into four groups that included Transportation, Civil, Technological and Natural. In the second stage, entails the reflection of the total risks presented by the hazard that is identified. At this point, the group comes together to undertake the process of risk assessment in Romania. During the period of assessment, some of the two issues that are key and need to be considered are; the likelihood assessment and the potential impact examination. The criteria of the likelihood and impact are to be used as the basis for decision making. The system of classification is based on a risk assessment guide in the major management of emergency (DEHLG, 2010). In determining the types of risk that exists it is wise to show the relative lively hood of the risk occurrence against its impact Natural Flooding The risk of flooding that is explained by the Romanian Academy Geography Institution extended the distribution site of the sites of Seveso; this provided an opportunity for these areas to be categorized as areas that are prone to Natech event. In Romania, areas that are categorized as flood risk occupy a larger surface hence increasing the probability of the occurrence of Natech with the major cause flooding. The largest area of the site of Seveso that could be affected by the floods is located in the central and western part of Romania. Sites of Seveso can also be found in Mures, Hunedoara and Alba counties. However, other counties in Romania which do not have the Seveso Sites and have a high risk of being affected by the floods are majorly at the west and they include Olt-South, Caransebes-South-West, Giurgiu, and Caras (European Environment Agency, 2010). High temperature/ drought The year 2003 was exceptional when view from a climatic point. Most of the part of Europe was affected by drought with the regime of inadequate precipitation and high temperature. In this year, the maximum temperature that has been highly recorded in the history was exceeded. In England, 38.10C was recorded while Germany and France recorded 40.40C (Mara & Vlad, 2007). The negative effects caused by the drought occurred in Italy and Iberian Peninsula in which tourists were affected by the drought. Furthermore, in The Netherlands, the authorities put restriction measures in place in the electrical consumption. Also, in Eastern Europe and in Balkans, agricultural crops were compromised. In Romania, after a moderately calm winter that extended until April and started in May, the thermal system became extremely dry. June and May, which have been known for history top be months of rain, were almost without rain. The regime of drought occurred quickly and harshly. The southern part of Romania experienced the most droughts due to lack of precipitation, lowering of the groundwater table, a temperature that is high and increased river drought. The combining effect of hydrological and metrological drought caused soil drought which resulted to extreme drought at the local level. The vegetation situation of the agricultural crops was worsened by the increased air temperature, over biological strength dangerous limits, and lasting soil and atmospheric drought. The minimum flow rate of the Danube River was recorded in the stream lower part with a rate of about 1600cm/s compared with the monthly multi-annual mean value of 5.500cm/s. Just by the end of the year, Europe precipitation regime increased, hence reducing the drought effect. An exceptional initially conserved structure of Byzantine docking, wooden made, complicated by clay and stone, emerged during the 2003 extreme drought (Mara & Vlad, 2007). Storm In the year 2012, traffic in Bucharest which is the capital city of Romania is experiencing a difficulty in the traffic sector. This is mainly because the country was experiencing heavy snow. The second largest administrative building in the world is cant be seen due to the strong snowstorm that is sweeping the city. Romania is its high alert after the metrological issued a yellow code for blizzards and snowfalls. The storm has blocked twenty-five national roads and two highways. For the last twenty-four hours, two people have lost there lives raising the death tool to twenty-five. The strength of the wind in some parts is very strong at about a speed of 90km/hr. Fourteen thousand employees of the interior ministry are in very ready to act when the need arises and are prioritizing the people stuck in the snow. Also, nine helicopters have been put in place in case of emergency medical cases from places that are isolated in case the condition worsens. Furthermore, the ministry of defense has released about four thousand soldiers to be in place in case of the need of any assistance (Cosmins, 2012). Transportation Land, air, and transport hub Road accident evaluation for the ten years that have passed at the European and the world level has been increasing since the year 2006. This trend has been linked to the high fleet growth and the number of drivers about the growth of the economy that has been observed until the year 2008. This phenomenon has affected humanity by causing death, damage to property and accidents with temporally or permanent work disability results to trauma and socio-economic costs. This was majorly experienced during the economic recession at the worldwide level. Because Romania fits into this tendency, of intelligent road risk management to ensure a climate that is safe in traffic. This should start from the economic précised determination and social cost at the national level due to a road accident that is serious and those that cause death represents a national priority. For the objective of the number of people being injured and killed in a road accident to be reduced, a partnership between the relevant authority is needed. This may include the policy makers, civil society, and institution with the field responsibility and the business environment in the mass media and the transport sector. The coordination of the efforts entails the persuasion and the development of the strategy of road safety. This is mainly based on establishing several level weaknesses which include law control and enforcement, legislation, quality of infrastructure, training of the personals on road safety and fleet enterprises management (Arssm, 2012). Technological Radiation incidents The first round of risk assessment of using rail for the transportation of radwaste was carried out. The root under assessment was of 764 kilometers of length and covered from Stei to Bucharest. In that root, there exists a single wagon that has a capacity of 72 packages of a volume of 220l that are standard. Some of the radiological risks that were calculated included the routine exposure of radwaste of the transport person and the public. Secondly was the accident in transportation that happens due to population exposure to radiation and environmental contamination. In the period of the year 1994 to the year 1997, by the use of rail, 1699 packages were transported; this meant that in every year, 425 packages were transported. The calculation of the population density along the rail route was 93 population density per kilometer square (Vieru, 1999). From the available database of the Romanian Railways, the accidents by rail are grouped on the basis of the type of train and the rail gauge. Handling and transport may happen for several reasons endanger the environment and the population. As a result, the population may be exposed as a result of several pathways to radiation from the material that may be exposed during transportation. However, it is important for the relevant authorities to establish the rate at which the radiation is released from the material and the magnitude of such release. This mainly depends on several factors like the volume and type of waste that is being transported, the frequency and severity of the events of accidents. The adopted risk assessment method to enable the quantification of the potential radiological consequences and the expected chances of occurrence of such accident includes five steps. These five steps entails, the type and quantity of the waste that is being transported. The second step is the selection, determination and description of the probability, severity and type of the accident occurrence and how to handle it. Third is the assessment of transport waste and packaging to a given mechanical impact. The fourth is the estimation of frequency and release occurrence putting into mind the severity of the accident and the pattern of shipping. The fifth is the assessment of radiological consequences that are potential for the weather condition spectrum experienced along the transport route of the rail. Based on the adopted method, factors that were taken into consideration include nine categories that are severity representing the load condition of the accident to a package of type A that included six combined mechanical and thermal and three mechanical. Rail accidents involve derailment, the impact between the vehicle and the train, collision between train and fire. For the mechanical impact condition of the load experienced on the package based on the velocity of the train before the event of an accident three level that were severe were defined for the events to be described. The impact of thermal that is potential includes a thirty minute fully engulfing at about 8000C and a sixty minute engulfing of about 8000C fire. According to the railway database of Romania, the frequency of accidents that is only mechanical was approximated to be 93% of fire engulfing was approximated to be two percent and of combined mechanical was approximated to be two percent (Vieru, 2000). Cyber incidents In the recent years, Romania has witnessed cyber crimes as compared to cyber attacks and there are some that need mentioning. For example, an attack that was experienced in the year 2008 affected 75,000 computers in various countries around the world (Nakashima, 2010), and about 13,000 computers in Romania that belong to university and companies. The hackers accessed credit card operation to documents that are private. About cyber crime for an instant in the year 2011, more than 500 people were arrested and over 2000 cyber crime cases were identified. The main activities identified were copying and transmission of credit card data, distribution on production of copying the electronic data for credit cards, forgery of credit card, phishing, fraud in electronic payment, fraud in electronic commerce, illegal altering of the data for computers and unlawful access to computer data (Romenia, 2010). In the last year, Romania recorded an increased cyber crime of five to ten percent with approximate damages worth twenty million euros. Even though Romania is still categorized as a country that is vulnerable to cyber attacks, it has not experienced attacks in critical infrastructure and in its national security. However, this can rapidly change in the coming g years because people are living in the world that is highly interconnected and digitalized. However, the future attack will be because Romania is an ally of the United States of America which is one of the most countries that are targeted. Furthermore, it is a member of most of the international organizations like the NATO and EU that also faces the danger of cyber attack (Cepeoffice, 2012). Some of the vulnerability about cyber security with which Romania struggles is that Romania recognized cyber security as a dimension of national security in the year 2010. This means that the digital infrastructure of the country is very vulnerable and that the country has no prepared plans in case of a cyber crime. Secondly, in Romania, specialists that can deal with the issue of cyber attack are few, and this makes monitoring difficult. Third is that the experienced increase in cyber security is an indication that the current internet protocol has low security, key internet service for buildings housing and emergency communication. In 2010 strategy of the national security, Romania has identified various objectives that are required to improve the dimension of cyber security. This objective includes substantiating a cyber security strategy in Romania in tune with the provision of the international and European Union. Secondly is for the country to come up with minimum standards of security that are to be achieved by the private sector and the public with the aim of protecting the critical infrastructure information. Thirdly is the country coming up with a rule that unites all the procedure, regulation, and technical instruments. These are in the field of information, technology, and communications security, with the view of ability to act. However, these objectives can be achieved hand in hand with others like, to come up with a governance structure for implementing the strategy of national security. Furthermore, the country can boost the partnership of private and public for cyber security through implementing the use of incentives. Also, the country should come up with communication strategies to update the public and the private sector on the effects and risks of cyber crime and cyber attack for persons employed by private companies or public institution. The country should also undertake vulnerability assessment to locate the main vulnerability it is facing when it come to cyber security to come up with the best solution and implement them to counter the risk involved. Romania should also come up with a plan to reduce the potential national attack in cyber damage and the time of recovery from that event. The country should also come up with a method that is valid of obtaining digital evidence from the computer for investigation in cyber crime. And finally the country should invest in better and new equipment and software for most of the public institutions (Cepeoffice, 2012). Romania is not a target for cyber attackers. Furthermore, the country is interested and has plans in developing a strategy in cyber security and the organization that will apply it. However, at the international level, the fact that the country is one of the members of international organization likes EU, NATO, and OSCE which know the importance of understanding cyber security and the need of decision implementation in this area will also benefit Romania (Cepeoffice, 2012). Civil Terrorists activity The capital city of Romania is referred as Bucharest and is located in the countries the south region. The size of the city is about 228-kilometer square, and its population is about 1.9 million. Most of the city population is Romanians with small groups of the population of minority, which includes the Hungarians, Chinese, Roma, Germans, and Turks living in the city. The most widely spoken language that is spoken of the city is Romanian. However, English can be found in most of the part of the city that is metropolitan as well as the minority group native language. Bucharest was named the capital of Romania in t5he year 1862 and has progressively consolidated its position as the Romanian mass media, arts and culture since then. Most of the cities architectural have been influenced by Communist-era, historical and modern influence. Bucharest is the city in Romanian that has been ranked as the most prosperous, and is among the main transportation hubs and industrial centers for the Eastern Europe. The city is the region for a wider range of education facilities, conventional facilities, shopping center, recreational and cultural venue. The Global Terrorist index places Romania as one of the countries that is the safest about terrorism activity (City Risk Report, 2015). Loss of critical infrastructure Threats and Hazards in Romanian to critical infrastructure Some threats and hazards are inherent, such as process or system threats as a result of evolution or complexity of process and system. Others are issued maliciously, for purpose or as a result of certain interest. Other threats and hazards are natural as a result of environmental hosting these CIs. In relation to this, hazards and threats in relation to CIs can be categorized as cosmic, geophysics and climatic threats and hazards, threats and hazards resulting from the activities of human and threats and hazards from the virtual space (Macuc &Predoiu 2008). Geophysical, Climatic and Cosmic threats and hazards These threats and hazards mainly result from the earth, cosmic event phenomenon, and meteorological, physical dynamics. Those that are most common includes; cosmic threats and Hazards towards physical infrastructure that are critical elements which includes intensification of cosmic and solar radiation, cosmic storms, meteorites falls, and other phenomena that can affect the earth directly. Second is the climatic threat and hazards are more numerous and frequent as compared to cosmic ones. They include thunderstorm, heavy snowfall, hurricanes, hail, extreme heat or cold waves, acid rain, flash floods and floods, drought that is extreme. The magnitude of these hazards are granted and always with chaotic and sudden variation. The third is geographical threats and hazards result from the dynamics of the planet and include volcanic eruption, earthquake, landslides, tsunamis, and land collapse. Threats and Hazards due to activities of human Most of the threats and hazards that affect CI are mainly as a result of human activity. These threats and hazards can be categorized into two which includes, unconventional confrontation means and intrinsic to activities of a human. Intrinsic human threat and activities can be categorized into three depending on their target which includes process, dynamic and system (Macuc &Predoiu 2008). The main threats and hazards to CIs caused by the malfunction of the system are produced by the infrastructure system complexity in their metasystems quality. These kinds of hazards are many and not easy to avoid. Among these hazards moral and physical degradation of the infrastructure, development of some of the system parts that possess stress other parts of the system, unexpected crumple of some parts of the system which results to the destruction of other parts of the infrastructure. The threats and hazards precise to social and physical process are the moist difficult and always tremendously destructive. Among the majorly identified threats and hazards as a result of processes includes, changes in action as a result of numerous factors that are troublesome, financial, economic and other type of activity with the aim to wipe out competition; Innovation in Information Technology and high technology and dissimilar resisting degrees to apply it; different activities that are wicked which includes also terrorism. The treats and hazards caused by dynamic may mainly result from the system features and philosophy and the lively procedure that is difficult. Between the most common is the unexpected change in the systems operation and performance and their process. A quick change in the system interconnection, process, and occurrence as a result of external, internal or change in environment, the activity of the troublesome factors that are can not be predicted. Animal diseases The authority of Federal Veterinary and Phytosanitary Control of Russia has banned the importation of bovine cattle, by-products and beef from Romania because of the outbreak of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy that is commonly known as the mad cow disease (Htsyndication, 2014). The released ban was also to be applied animal protein that is processed, the feedstuff of animals processed from the same protein, bone tankage, and meat meal. However, the national veterinary and sanitation authority of Romanian refute the allegations mentioned above stating that Romanian does not export bovine cattle, by-products and beef to Russia. And the epidemic that Russia is referring to is a BSE case that is isolated and does not affect the health of a human being. Furthermore, Romanian has in no way registered the common form of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy. At the start of the month of June, Romanian has received a certificate from the International Epizootic Bureau, which identified Romania as having a negligible risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy. For Romania to get the standards of the IEB, it has carried several tests for seven years. Out of the total of one hundred and seventy-eight countries who are the members of IEB, only twenty-five countries have obtained the negligible risk standard, and Romania is among the twenty-five countries identified. The remaining countries are having an undermined risk (Actmedia, 2015). Public disorders In the century that has passed the people of Romania experienced a mixture of social, natural economical and historical shocking events indicating a great level of exposure to the shock of the population in general. Of all the respondents, 41.5% have recorded one or more shocking event in their life. The events frequency is recorded at 131.1 per 100 respondents. The prevalence rate for a lifetime and that within 12months was recorded at 1.2 percent and 0.7 percent. The conditional prevalence of PTSD after being exposed to trauma was recorded at 4.7 percent. The conditional risk of PTSD after being exposed to trauma and the chances of the evolvement of chronic after the onset of PTSD was both high for stalking victims. Events that were frequent and traumatizing included; at 20.1 % these people witnessed a person being killed, dying or hurt seriously, at 15.4 these are people who suffered from a situation that was life threatening. However, at 13.4% these are people who experienced a road accident and at 10.2% these people experienced natural disaster and finally at 15.1% are people who experienced the death of a loved one that was unexpected. The conditional risk for PTSD or the lifetime occurrence of PTSD to date episode and the PTSD duration recorded highest for being stalked and decreases gradually for being a domestic violence witness, experience of an incident of life-threatening, domestic violence victim, rape victim, and an the death of the loved one that was unexpected (Floresc, Mihaescu-Pinti, Ciutan, Sasu, Gălăon, 2014). Risk Classification Classification of Likelihood Ranking Classification Likelihood 1 Extremely Unlikely May only occur in situation that are extraordinary, this may after every 500 years or more. 2 Very Unlikely Not always expected to happen, or it is an incident that has never been recorded, may occur once every 100 to 500 years. 3 Unlikely Is an incident that is infrequent and always and has a random occurrence, may occur once every 10 to 100 years 4 likely May occur or is likely to occur, they are incidences that are regularly recorded. Occur on every one to ten years. 5 Very Likely Has a high level of recording incidents, has probability of accruing more than once every year. Classification of Impact Rank Classification Impact Description 1 Very Low Impact Health, life, Welfare Environmental Infrastructure Social Limited number of people affected, between 0-4 Localized or simple contamination Should be above two million Euros Disruption of the local infrastructure and community service for a period of more than forty eight hours. 2 Low Impact Health, life, Welfare Environmental Infrastructure Social Four to eight casualties, a significant number of people affected. It also entails disruption of a good number of people for a period of two to eight days. Affects for a short duration, it is simple and it’s of regional contamination. Should be above two million but not more than twenty four million Significantly inconveniences the functioning of the community 3 Moderate Impact Health, life, Welfare Environmental Infrastructure Social About eight to twenty casualties, serious or injuries that are extensive, major hospitalization Contamination that is heavy and is of extended duration. Above twenty four million and not more than eighty million Euros. Partial functioning of the community and some services available 4 High impact Health, life, Welfare Environmental Infrastructure Social About one hundred seriously injured and twenty to fifty casualties and approximately 1600 persons evacuated. Contamination is heavy; the effect is wide spread and is for a duration that is extended. About eighty to two hundred Euros The service available is minimal and there is a poor functioning of the community. 5 Very High Impact Health, life, Welfare Environmental Infrastructure Social More than 1600 persons evacuated, hundreds of people seriously injured, The effect is for an extended duration and the contamination is very heavy. Not more than two hundred million Euros. Infrastructures are seriously damaged and causes loss of important services for a significance period of time. Romanian National Risk Matrix Effect of hazards on the Romanian GDP Seismic hazard alone can cause great effect to the economy of Romania. For example, if 65 percent of the total urban population in Romania or 30 percent of the Romania population is exposed from an earthquake from the Vrancea fault. Further, seventy to eighty percent of the GDP is produced in regions that are classified as highly seismic prone region of vii-ix intensity on the Mercalli Scale. In history, an earthquake of large magnitude has been recorded to have occurred on the zone. This recording is the reason for the anticipation of the same earthquake in the coming years. It is estimated that the repeat of the earthquake of the 1977 would result to a total of $7.45- 17 billion losses which is about 20 to 45 percent of the GDP of Romania. If such an earthquake occurs, it will be of a great loss to the economy on Romania. The Romania government has no financial strategy in place incase of a major earthquake consequences. Furthermore, there is also no legal provision in place for covering any liability that is incurred. With the penetration of the insurance standing at three to five percent, 0.85 of the GDP or $ 13,9 per capita in the year 2000 , most of the loses caused by the effect of the earthquake will have to be settled by the government, home owners and local businesses (GOVERNMENT OF ROMANIA,2003). Bibliography ACTMEDIA, (2015). 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