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Political Science - Essay Example

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The essay concerns the issue of intelligence analysis. It is stated that arriving at conclusive verdicts has been challenging irrespective of the fact that the advancements in technology have brought new angles from which intelligence issues can be examined. …
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Essay on Political Science Part Response to the Intelligence analysis has overtime presented itself as a mixed bag. This is because arriving at conclusive verdicts has been challenging irrespective of the fact that the advancements in technology have brought new angles from which intelligence issues can be examined. I presume true the fact that the game theory of conflict, can alternatively be employed in the PRC-Taiwan situation. This is so because just like AHC, the game theory of conflict would have brought about the same hypothesis. In like manner, it takes into consideration both empirical and quantitative analysis of intelligence, thereby providing many angles from which local and foreign policies can be analyzed. The theory has similarly been credited for its reliability, as well as the event of bringing on board alternative tactics with the aim of refining the expected. ACH manages to avoid both human bias and analytical errors by integrating both cognitive psychology and scientific methods into its system of exploration. That notwithstanding, I hold the opinion that bringing on board other analysts when using ACH is more productive than when an analyst uses it alone. This is because having many analysts on board ensures that each situation is approached form a broad angle, thereby taking into consideration all the possible alternatives. The input of the other analysts will similarly be important in doing away with assumptions while collecting evidence against each alternative (Intelligence Reports 2013). The ideal result would be that the alternative with the least evidence against it would be accepted. Bringing on board several analysts would be challenging as handling numerous views may be mentally hectic, nonetheless, the process would be comprehensive and without pitfalls, notably because the alternatives will be competing against each other.
Response to Tyler
I harbor the same belief as you that the content that we have covered in this course will come in handy in ensuring that we become worldwide professionals in the field of intelligence. Taking a walk down memory lane, we all attest to the fact that intelligence has made significant strides. This is because the physical maps and marker pens that were the order of the day have been overtaken by the use of satellites and information technology (Hypothesis, 2008). Looking to the future, I still believe that technology still has a significant role to play. It is the charter bus that will revolutionize the world of intelligence. The only area that we need to improve on is how quickly we adapt to the challenges we face, as the slow manner in which we have responded in the past, has always worked to the advantage of enemies.
Response to Adrian
The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis is no doubt a resourceful script. Personally, it has widened my scope of reasoning and made me understand the role of cognitive psychology in intelligence analysis. Maybe this explains why the book is a must read for any student in an intelligence-related field. Biasness can many a times bring about compromise in intelligence analysis. Personally I believe it is brought about by the event of approaching analysis from the most likely alternative instead of looking into all the possible alternatives (Intelligence Reports 2013). I consider the intelligence community fortunate because they have several theories of analysis such as ACH, it might not be the finished article, but it minimizes the chances of pitfalls while making intelligence examination and at the same time ensures that it reasonably tackles controversial issues.
References
Hypotheses, Analysis of Competing. "Analysis of Competing Hypotheses." Central Intelligence Agency. July 2008. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi- publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art11.html (accessed October Thursday, 2014).
"Intelligence Reports." Air University. August 2013. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc- ntel.htm (accessed October Thursday, 2014). Read More
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