How Luck May Affect What Sorts of Decisions People Make - Coursework Example

Title: How Luck May Affect What Sorts of Decisions People Make Abstract Cognitive approaches are used to identify the effects that luck related concepts have on how the individuals make their decisions. The luck related concepts could in most cases influence the behavior of individuals through changing the way the participants feel temporary as a result of their luck feelings. Earlier researches showed that the consumers will be affected by the positive effects of luck. However, later experiments showed that the influence of the luck related concepts was mainly influenced by how lucky people felt rather than by how lucky people felt at that time. Exposing the people to the lucky events influenced how they made their decisions. This paper therefore sought to look at the ways in which luck may affect the type of the decisions that are made by the people. Introduction For a long time people believe that use of some objects or undergoing through some traditional rituals influences the people’s risk. Those who tend to believe in luck are likely to have a greater optimism in their lives on a daily basis than those people who do not believe in luck. This makes many people in many parts of the world to carry charms for luck and to engage in behaviors that lead to luck among people. It is therefore appropriate to have a closer look at the people’s beliefs on the luck and how they perceive the feelings of feeling lucky at the time when they make their decisions. (Darke and Freedman, 1997). This affects many aspects in the lives of the people such as in marketing which results form the increase in the use of promotional activities such as the sweepstakes. These have led to the increase in the companies that host gambling games. Many explanations have been given concerning luck. For instance, the exposure of the people to the colors that they refer to as lucky colors may show a positive influence and this will make the people to develop extreme reactions that tend to evaluate negative instances such as a failure in the marketing of a product in the market place more negatively. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). In addition, the people are likely to be more alert to the losses that they may experience in their lives. More to this the effects of luck may be propagated more by the readily availability of the beliefs about luck that makes the expectations about something and also makes the people to get disappointed when the expected thing fails to happen. As a result of the fact that the positive influence of luck and the actual luck acts as two factors that are concurrent, it would therefore be important to have a distinction between the effects that luck has influencing the behavior of the people and what mechanism causes this influence of behavior. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). It was suggested that the influence of luck on the behavior of the people are caused through the same process. This means that the exposure of the people to numbers, symbols or even concepts that are relate to being lucky may affect the people’s perception of how lucky they feel. However, it would be appropriate to find out why most of the people tend to engage themselves in outcomes that appear to be having more risk and at what instances are these behaviors more pronounced. Hypothesis 1. Those who experience a near loss feel luckier than those experiencing a near win but this will be reduced if they are in the ‘run to’ conditions. 2. Those who experience a near loss feel luckier than those experiencing a near win but this effect will be larger if they have a high believe in luck. 3. Those who experience a near loss prefer more an uncertain gamble over a certain gamble than those experiencing a near win but this effect will be larger if they have a high believe in luck. 4. Those who experience a near loss prefer a risky outcome over a guaranteed outcome more than those experiencing a near win but this effect will be larger if they have a high believe in luck. Literature Review This paper begins by highlighting the various psychological approaches used daily to understand the luck and behaviors of the people. It also discusses the ways that might show the positive influence might be influenced by the processes that affect the luck. In addition the availability of the concepts that are related to luck may depend also on how recently they were used by the people. (Darke and Freedman, 1997). This shows how frequently the concept of luck has been used among the people. It is argued that the availability of luck related concepts among the people may be constant to all the people but what activates them may depend on what situation the individual was in that led to the recent activation. This means that a recent activation of the luck related concepts may lead to the people behaving in a certain way because of these effects. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). Therefore, in determining the role played by luck among individuals, the situation of the individuals as well as the individual differences has to be considered as they play a role in their influence. A cognitive approach is also important in examining the process by which the behavior of the people is influenced. Past Studies on the Evaluation of the Underlying Process The earlier researches have not adequately measured the feelings that are attached to luck and happiness nor have they identified the effects of luck on the behaviors of the individuals. Research on luck is based on a single lucky activity in order to determine the future expectations of luck and the willingness of the people to take risk. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). The researches which were conducted manipulated the lucky activity in order to determine the effects that they could have on the people who had a very strong belief in betting. It was later found out that those who got a lucky activity were more willing to continue betting and had believed in betting more. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). On the other hand, those who had not experienced a lucky event were not as confident as such and used to bet less. Believe among the individuals that they would receive a lucky event after the first successful betting made the people to increase in their risk taking. However, manipulation of the betting could raise some questions as to whether a win or a loss could change a person’s beliefs on betting. Implications of the Underlying Cognitive Mechanism for Risk- Taking The effects of luck on the behavior of the individuals can affect the number of people in a culture who value luck in their lives. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). Some of the cultures are believed to bring good luck to people while other cultures are thought to have bad luck to the individuals. This distinction is important in the sense that it helps people to identify the instances and the experiences that they go through on their daily lives. Psychological Approaches Underlying Research on Luck The Attribution Theory This theory sees luck as one of the four factors which are responsible for the behaviors of the people and that of other people. It views as if the luck has its limits and seems to be unstable to the different types of people. (Darke and Freedman, 1997). However, this approach has been questioned by most people as it tends to confuse between the chance and luck. Despite the fact that chance is external to the individual and unstable in different individuals, luck can at times be seen as a trait of a person and at other times seen as an event that the person is in. Personality Trait Perspective This theory views the individual differences in the beliefs concerning luck. This theory states that people believe in luck for various reasons such as to give a sense of control in the lives of the people and to act as a source of optimism for the lives of the people. Darke and Freedman helped to develop a scale called belief in good luck that was helped to measure the differences in the people and how these differences in the people helped to measure the individual differences on how the people believed in luck and how the beliefs on luck led to an influence on how the people accepted the results of the events that came from luck. (Darke and Freedman, 1997). Method Participants A total of 512 students (34.4%, male, Mean age= 21.6) in a second year psychology course at the university of Sydney participated during their class tutorials. Design The design used was a 2x2x2 between subject with the independent variables being near result (near- win or near loss), run direction (run-to or run from) and belief in luck (high or low). There were four dependent variables. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). Feeling lucky measured how participants were reported feeling, feeling unlucky measured how unlucky participants reported feeling certainty preference measured how participants a certain to uncertain gamble: and risk preference measures how participants preferred a risky outcome to a guaranteed outcome with a potentially higher pay off. Materials and procedure Participants first had their belief in luck assessed by being given them the Bigl scale developed by Darke and Freedman (1997). This consisted of 12 items namely: 1. Luck is an important in life 2. Some individuals are lucky while others not. 3. I consider myself to be unlucky person. 4. I believe in luck. 5. I feel like it’s a lucky day often. 6. I consistently have good luck. 7. It is inappropriate to make any decisions with reference on how lucky you feel. 8. Luck works on my favor. 9. I don’t mind leaving things on to chance because am a lucky person. 10. Even the things I cannot control tend to go my way because I am lucky. 11. There is good luck that may favor some individuals 12. Being lucky is nothing more than random. For each of the item the participants were asked how much they agreed on a scale from 1 (strongly disagreed) to 6 (strongly agreed). From this was calculated a score called BigL by adding upon the participants responses to the 12 items (items number 7 and 12 were reverse scored). Some participants were then given another task so that participants sitting next to each other would not be watching a spinning wheel at the same time. This manipulation did not affect participant’s subsequent responses. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). We then tried to manipulate how lucky people felt in the same way as Enzle and Wohl (2003). Participants were presented with a spinning wheel like that shown in figure 1 and told that they would win the number of token that an arrow at the top pointed to. The wheel had 7 sections from ‘bankrupt to (0 tokens) to 70 tokens, but there were two version of the wheel. In the near- loss condition the wheel was like that shown in figure 1, with the “bankrupt section next to the “10” section. Animation was used to make the wheel appear to spin, initially quickly then slowly until it stopped with the arrow pointing to the “10” section but very close to the “10” section. However, in the near- win section. Results: Figure 1: Feeling lucky: Results above indicate that a near win or near loss outcome has an effect on lucky feeling, those with a high luck belief feel less lucky when the outcome is a near win compared to those with a low luck belief.. Those with a high luck belief feel less lucky when the outcome is a near loss compared to those with a low luck belief. Figure 2: certainty preference Results above indicate that a near win or near loss outcome has an effect on certainty preference, those with a high luck belief feel more lucky when the outcome is a near win compared to those with a low luck belief.. Those with a high luck belief feel relatively the same level of luck when the outcome is a near loss compared to those with a low luck belief. Discussion Earlier researches used to explore the effects of luck on behavior using the attribution theory and the personality variables. This leaves the literature on how luck influences the decision making procedures being scarce and documented less. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). More to this in earlier research luck was documented in a way that they could easily be manipulated to give positive influence on decision making of the people. This makes it very difficult to judge whether the effects that arise because of luck are either because of the beliefs held by people concerning luck, a change in the way that lucky people feel or even because of the positive influence brought about by luck. (Darke and Freedman, 1997). Despite the facts that lucky people felt to be happier, the happy feelings were not responsible for the experiments that were conducted later in the experiment. This however should not be confused as if positive feelings do not play a role, instead it means that the positive influence of luck are more general and despite the fact that they may lead to great optimism among the people, they may not influence the decisions that are made by the people. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). However, this may change the way the participants feel without the necessary explanation as to why the participants felt that way. Such feelings have more effect on the influence of risk taking in decision making. References Darke, P. and Freedman, J. (1997). Lucky events and beliefs in luck: paradoxical effects on confidence and risk taking. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, p. 378 - 388. Wohl and Enzle, M. (2003). The effects of the near wins and near losses on self perceived personal luck and subsequent gambling behavior. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 39, p. 184 -191. Read More

As a result of the fact that the positive influence of luck and the actual luck acts as two factors that are concurrent, it would therefore be important to have a distinction between the effects that luck has influencing the behavior of the people and what mechanism causes this influence of behavior. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). It was suggested that the influence of luck on the behavior of the people are caused through the same process. This means that the exposure of the people to numbers, symbols or even concepts that are relate to being lucky may affect the people’s perception of how lucky they feel.

However, it would be appropriate to find out why most of the people tend to engage themselves in outcomes that appear to be having more risk and at what instances are these behaviors more pronounced. Hypothesis 1. Those who experience a near loss feel luckier than those experiencing a near win but this will be reduced if they are in the ‘run to’ conditions. 2. Those who experience a near loss feel luckier than those experiencing a near win but this effect will be larger if they have a high believe in luck. 3. Those who experience a near loss prefer more an uncertain gamble over a certain gamble than those experiencing a near win but this effect will be larger if they have a high believe in luck. 4. Those who experience a near loss prefer a risky outcome over a guaranteed outcome more than those experiencing a near win but this effect will be larger if they have a high believe in luck.

Literature Review This paper begins by highlighting the various psychological approaches used daily to understand the luck and behaviors of the people. It also discusses the ways that might show the positive influence might be influenced by the processes that affect the luck. In addition the availability of the concepts that are related to luck may depend also on how recently they were used by the people. (Darke and Freedman, 1997). This shows how frequently the concept of luck has been used among the people.

It is argued that the availability of luck related concepts among the people may be constant to all the people but what activates them may depend on what situation the individual was in that led to the recent activation. This means that a recent activation of the luck related concepts may lead to the people behaving in a certain way because of these effects. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). Therefore, in determining the role played by luck among individuals, the situation of the individuals as well as the individual differences has to be considered as they play a role in their influence.

A cognitive approach is also important in examining the process by which the behavior of the people is influenced. Past Studies on the Evaluation of the Underlying Process The earlier researches have not adequately measured the feelings that are attached to luck and happiness nor have they identified the effects of luck on the behaviors of the individuals. Research on luck is based on a single lucky activity in order to determine the future expectations of luck and the willingness of the people to take risk.

(Wohl and Enzle, 2003). The researches which were conducted manipulated the lucky activity in order to determine the effects that they could have on the people who had a very strong belief in betting. It was later found out that those who got a lucky activity were more willing to continue betting and had believed in betting more. (Wohl and Enzle, 2003). On the other hand, those who had not experienced a lucky event were not as confident as such and used to bet less. Believe among the individuals that they would receive a lucky event after the first successful betting made the people to increase in their risk taking.

However, manipulation of the betting could raise some questions as to whether a win or a loss could change a person’s beliefs on betting. Implications of the Underlying Cognitive Mechanism for Risk- Taking The effects of luck on the behavior of the individuals can affect the number of people in a culture who value luck in their lives.

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