Conflict Assessment: Syria - Case Study Example

Conflict Assessment: Syria (Author’s name) (Institutional Affiliation) Conflict Assessment: Syria Introduction Syria as a country has been thrown in a 4th generation war (Keenan). Fourth generation war also known as 4GW, is a war characterized by concealing of lines between civilians and combats, politics and war (Richards, 2015). Over the last four years, the Syrian conflict has been the reason for the Syrian people’s distress. Approximately 2.5 million people have moved out of the country since the war outbreak that occurred in 2011, apart from this, there has also been 6.6 million internal displaced people. Comparing his with the Syrian population of around 2.3 million people, this is a sign of that the Syrian civil war has had destructive effects on almost half of her total population (Rais, 2913). The Syrian conflict is becoming highly complicated with pro-Assad allies and forces, rebels, and the Jihadi group ISIS (Islamic State). The war in Syria now is not as simple as it was before. At its inception, the war was only between the Anti-Assad vs pro-Assad. In fact, within the Anti-Assad forces, there have been divisions over the long-term goals for the court and the strategies. In addition, the ISIS continues to fight with both the progovernment forces and the insurgencies in the country’s northeast parts, where they control very large area. Instead of Assad’s government, majority of the armed opposition seek to form a government governed by the law of Sunni (O’Rourke, 2017). However, the minority non-Sunni oppose this kind of establishment. This study in its assessment of Syrian war, will focus mainly on religion, which is viewed as a substantial catalyst for the uprising of the anti-government forces. This essay’s framework is based on the four steps of conflict assessment process suggested by Levinger (Owen). The process is found on the hypothesis from non-governmental and government framework of conflict assessment to ascertain four main issues in conflict understanding. This paper will limit its application of the Levinger assessment points to the second stage of actors. Though for a wider analysis reasons, the application of the other three steps will be beneficial. . The Syrian Context (History) A movement for liberation of Syria emerged in 2011 with an aim of ousting the government of Assad’s Alawite (Berzins, 2013). The son of al-Assad Hafez, Bashar al-Assad, the president, who ruled with terror, had a very good education and related well with the West. At first, unlike his father, he showed that he was committed to reform the country. Nonetheless, as a president Bashar failed to meet the expectations of many people who saw him as a reformer (Mariwala, 2014). A good number of the citizens viewed his government as illegitimate. As a result, tension began to rise among the Sunni and Alawite Baathist regime. The Sunni are the majority religion and are considered as pan-Arab nationalists. Whereas Alawite Baathist regime is considered as a socialist movement. Most of the supporters of the Alawite Baathist party came from those in favor of equality for non-Sunni and secularism, with most of them being religious minorities (Mariwala, 2014). However, the taking of control of political life and Army by Alawite came a little while earlier in around 1960 (Mariwala, 2014). This was achieved because of their military dominance and the elimination from power of `1other Muslim groups. As a result, the Sunni, who are the majority, were left to occupy minor positions. As a consequence, the government of Alawite was viewed by many as an anti-Islamic, oppressive, and illegitimate government. As the number of groups on the opposition side increased, the demonstrations against the ruling president shifted from peaceful protests to armed attacks (O’Rourke, 2017). However, the opposition did not have unity and leadership. Most often the rebels fought between the themselves. As the Assad’s, government cracked down on protesters merciless, making the protests hard to control. Initially, the Assad’ government was a secular dictatorship with initially, those opposing to Assad, being jailed and tortured (O’Rourke, 2017). Majority of Syrian had lived in peace with each other for many years before the eruption of war. The Sunni Muslims are approximately three quarters of the total Syrian population while the Alawite are only 12% of the total population, as shown in the figure I above. After the cruel suppression of Shia Muslim under Saddam Hussein control, who was a Sunni Muslim, many people in the West have assumed that Assad similarly suppresses the Sunni Muslim (Shultz, 2008 ). However, despite the Sunni being the majority, the party of Alawite Baath introduced an ideology which was seen as secular. According to them, irrespective of religious alignment, all Arabs are equal (Haran, 2016). Except some few Sunni Islamists who opposed the Alawite government, Syrians had ignored largely their religious differences. Nonetheless, the religious role has increased in its impact as a result of the uprising. The religion is being used by both fronts to marshal the troops (Haran, 2016). The rebels rallied the Sunni Muslim majority, whereas the Alawite government called upon the support of the minorities such as the Christians, Alawite, and Druze who are the beneficiary of secular government. Assessment In the Levinger’s step 2 of the 4 assessment steps’ frameworks, this study explores the actors in the Syrian conflict (Owen). There is need to understand who is contributing to conflict and who is fighting for peace. According to Levinger the conflict actors are the character cast that drive the conflict drama, with each actor having own resources, histories, and the relationships with other cast members (Haran, 2016). There is need to understand the real actors in the conflict (Edward L. Glaeser, 2002). This entails their motives and backgrounds, whether they are institutions, groups such as the ISIS, or an institution (Mariwala, 2014). In analyzing the actors, there are a number of issues that should be put under consideration, such as; Who are the conflict's main actors? Who are the conflict's secondary actors? Apart from the primary and secondary actors, who else has an impact over the event What are the capacities and resources of each actor? What are the communication channels and the existing relationships among and within the rival groups? Therefore, a significant question is to analyses who te primary actors are. The difference between the secondary actors and the primary actors will not be clear always, but is essential to look at who has a significant impact over the conflict outcome. By considering this aspect, the Asaad government will be the first to consider. (Miller, 2016) in his article, states that the DNA of Bashar Asaad ruined him, in such a way that whether he had reformation plans or he did not have them he would never have got the support he wanted. When comparing with having, the state governed by Sunni law, the secular government has benefited a lot of people in Syria (Miller, 2016). However, the opposition forces such as the Islamic Front and Islamic State, continue to perceive Assad as a detriment to peace in Syria. Due to the violent government’s response, there has been escalation to armed conflict from what started as merely peaceful protests. In Hama and Homs cities the protests have been curbed, however, the government has been alleged to targeted civilians through violence. Bearing all that allegations, Assad has continued to receive overwhelming support from Syrians, Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia. According to (Miller, 2016), Assad is perceived as a soft-hearted individual by the Syrians, and that, though under his government there have been a lot of crimes committed, contrary to western media reports, Assad may not be lethal. Assad has been perceived negatively in the West, with numerous violent rumors emerging in the Western media. As outsiders, it is complex to have an understanding that is unbiased towards conflict actor (O’Rourke, 2017). Therefore, when third parties intervene the conflict, without having valid information, they may give power to the wrong individuals or escalate the conflict. An example of this was seen in Iraq. Though some Syrian conflict actors such as Assad, may not easily fit in the Levinger’s category of peacebuilders and spoilers, most of them can be viewed as aiding in peace establishment or detrimental (Rais, 2913). Spoilers refers to individuals or organizations that benefit from the prolonged conflict. They include extremist or criminals that can easily operate in an environment that is chaotic (Mariwala, 2014). In Syria, such groups may include the Islamist rebels and terrorist groups that have taken control of most parts of Iraq and Syria (Richards, 2015). One of the ways these groups are recruiting loyalists is through indoctrinating them with Jihadist ideologies, to the extent of introducing the Islamic schools in the northern Syria to indoctrinate children. Free Syrian Army is another actor to be noted. Free Syrian Army was the name that was used to describe armed insurgence groups such as Sunni and secularists Muslims, who were ready to work with groups that were secular (Berzins, 2013). To begin with they had some success, since they had with bagged towns in northeast part of Syria by militias that were affiliated. But, with no sufficient unity and leadership their strength declined as the ultra-conservative groups continued to rise (Berzins, 2013). In order, to secure funds from other Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, a number of people from Free Syrian Army have applied tactics like, praying five times in a day, cultivating beards and taking part in Ramadan so that they appear to be devoted Muslims to earn their approval. Saudi Arabia also fund groups that observe Islamist ideology like Al Qaeda-allied militia, the al-Nusra Front, and U. S (Shultz, 2008 ). elected foreign terrorist organisation. Third party interventions First, in being among the Levinger’s group of, Russia has arguably played its role. Russia ordered military intercession after acquiring chemical attacks (O’Rourke, 2017). Russia suggested that Syria hands over their chemical weapons, but the government insisted that they had never applied them. After the beginning of uprising, foreign authorities alarmed the rebels with intentions to carry out post-Assad Syria politically (Haran, 2016). The Ansar al Islam Front, in August, published videos showing their staff shooting anti-tank weapons of the U.S origin. Free Syrian Army member, Abdul Salman, complains of lack of U.S support (Haran, 2016). He argues that if they would have received the support Assad would have gone down by now. Although, the CIA declined to offer weapons fearing that they would fall into extremist’s hands. Syrians opposition have continually asked for U.S. support though their Syria’s future plans significantly differ (Haran, 2016). This has continually caused disunity in the Syrian uprising, due to their difference in their future plans of overthrowing Assad. The UN is offering guidelines on smooth Syrian transition that offers the future perspective that can be felt by all the Syrians (Berzins, 2013). This plan is aimed at being implemented in a safe and stable environment. The UN proposal is for the country to become more pluralist and democratic and cease from the sectarianism that is a catalyst for the discrimination based on the ethnicity and religious beliefs (Edward L. Glaeser, 2002). The UN will be a peacebuilding actor, if it can implement these proposals successfully in the Syrian politics. This study also draws attention briefly to the effect of the conflict in Syria on the neighboring regions (Haran, 2016). The Syrian conflict has not only affected the stability of Syria only, but also the conflict has had a significant effect on the neighboring countries (Haran, 2016). The recent UN report explains how the neighboring countries have been negatively affected by the conflict in Iraq and Syrian. For instance, a country like Lebanon which has an approximate of 4.5 million people, has been forced to take close to 2 million refugees from the fighting countries (Haran, 2016). These kinds of countries can be categorized as conflict actors too. This is because they are helping the Syrians significantly, though they are not taking part in the actual war. Conclusion One important factor that is halting down the efforts to have a peaceful Syria is that majority of the involved actors have different ambitions for the country. At such, by only by ousting the Assad's government, will not end the conflict. In fact, when Assad is removed, there could be an escalation of conflict. Majority of the Syrians would love to have a democratic country that recognizes the majority's population's roots of Islamic. However, the extremist groups such as the Islamic Front and the Islamic State, are looking forward to enforce to Syrian citizens the Sunni Islamic law. This paper has attempted to assess some of the ongoing Syrian conflict actors. Though the paper has not analyzed all key players such as the Kurds in details, the study has been significant in assessment of some key conflict actors. These are the Free Syrian Army, the Islamic State, and the Assad's government. The opposition's lack of unity has created a barrier towards overthrowing the Assad's government. In fact, the Islamic State's brutality has caused the difference within the insurgencies, and is being viewed as the highest immediate threat. References Berzins, J. (2013). Civil War in Syria: Origins, Dynamics, and Possible Solutions. National Defence Academy of Latvia Center for Security and Strategic Research. Edward L. Glaeser, J. M. (2002). Cities and Warfare: The Impact of Terrorism on Urban Form. Journal of Urban Economics, 205-224. Haran, V. (2016). Roots of Syrian Crisis. Istitute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS). Keenan, S. (n.d.). Homeland Threats in the Fourth Generation of Warfare and the Case for a Department of Homeland Security Human Intelligence Program. A Journal of National Security Studies, 2-9. Mariwala, A. (2014). The Syrian Civil War: REGIME OF BASHAR AL-ASSAD. Starnford Model United Nation Conference 2014 (pp. 3-8). Starnford: United Nation. Miller, A. D. (2016, 8 19). Stuck in an Intractable Syria. Retrieved from www.realclearworld.com: http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2016/08/19/stuck_in_an_intractable_syria_112001.html O’Rourke, D. (2017, 3 27). Opinion: 'A political solution to the Syrian war is very unlikely now'. Retrieved from /www.thejournal.ie: http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/opinion-a-political-solution-to-the-syrian-war-is-very-unlikely-now-3302831-Mar2017/ Owen, M. (n.d.). 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