Risks Probability Matrix - Case Study Example

Advanced Fire Administration Table of Contents Introduction 3 II. ment of Purpose 4 III. Discussion 4 A. Risks Probability Matrix for Eugene,Oregon 4 B. Choosing Risks from Each Box in the Matrix, Two ideas for Risk Probability Reduction/Contributing to Community Safety Culture Positively 5 C. Strategy to Sell the Economic Value of Risk Management Services Tied to Identified Risk in the Risk Probability Matrix 8 D. One Governmental and One non-Governmental Agency Responsible for the Identification of, Assessment of, and Response to Identified Risks in the Community Risk Probability Matrix for Eugene, Oregon 9 IV. Conclusion 9 Works Cited 10 1. Introduction This paper undertakes a risk assessment for the community of Eugene, Oregon, taking off from the identification of risks within the framework of a Risk Probability Matrix for the community, and crafting strategies for reducing the probability of the risks occurring, as well as crafting an effective strategy for pushing the worth of risk management services for one of the identified risks in the matrix. The paper also undertakes an identification of government as well as non-government entities with identification, assessment and response responsibilities relating to the identified risks at the local, county/regional, state and federal government levels (Gale Guide to Cities of the United States; City of Eugene, Oregon; Essentix; Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce; Answers Corporation). Eugene is a city, the second largest in the state of Oregon, and is considered a key city in the Pacific Northwest. It is the center of the county government of Lane County. It is also the location of the University of Oregon. It prides itself in being the place of origin of the Nike Corporation, with the place being heavily focused on the outdoors, as well as the arts and sports The roots of the place go back to the founding of the settlement that was to become Eugene in 1846, even as the place itself was officially named Eugene Oregon on its incorporation in 1862. This was on the back of the establishment of Lane County in 1851, via an act by the Legislature of the Territory. The city/community had a population of 157,010 in 2011, out of a total of 353,155 in Lane County. It is predominantly white at 88 percent, with three quarters of the population between the ages of 18 and 79 (Gale Guide to Cities of the United States; City of Eugene, Oregon; Essentix; Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce; Answers Corporation). II. Statement of Purpose The purpose of this exercise is to be able to identify the risks present in the community of Eugene, finding ways to reduce the probability of those risks and to make Eugene safer, crafting strategies to sell risk management services tied to those risks, and mapping out the government and non-government agencies and entities that have the responsibility and the mandate to take care of addressing and mitigating/answering to the identified risks (Gale Guide to Cities of the United States; City of Eugene, Oregon; Essentix; Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce; Answers Corporation). III. Discussion A. Risks Probability Matrix for Eugene, Oregon Low Consequence High Consequence High Probability 1. There is a superfund identified in Eugene, an area that has been positively pinpointed as a contamination site for hazardous waste. This is Northwest Solvents and Supply in Chambers St. This has been marked for cleanup. The consequence is low because the area is localized and small (HomeFacts.com) 1. Among identified environmental hazards, there is the high probability of brownfields creating problems by releasing contaminants into the general environment. In Eugene there are two such brownfield sites, in the Oakridge Industrial Park and the McVay Highway Biofueling Station Site. The large areas involved make the potential consequences high (Homefacts.com) Low Probability 1. Localized house fires occurring at different times of the year, even during the height of winter and affecting individual households (Schwieger Insurance) There is the highest probability of a 5 magnitude earthquake hitting Eugene, and at higher magnitudes the probabilities diminish to zero at magnitude 7.2 and higher. These probabilities are low, but the consequences can be very high (HomeFacts.com (b)) It is to be noted that tying the risks identified in the risk probability matrix to fire administration, we can see that the environmental hazards present together with the actual occurrence of localized fires and earthquakes as representative of natural disasters all play into crucial factors in managing fires and mitigating the effects of fires. These identified risks amplify the potential harm as well as the extent of the interventions required to be able to successfully deal with them, with the least damage to lives and property (HomeFacts.com; HomeFacts.com (b); Schwieger Insurance; B. Choosing Risks from Each Box in the Matrix, Two ideas for Risk Probability Reduction/Contributing to Community Safety Culture Positively !. High Probability-Low Consequence At the top of the matrix, the chosen risk is this: “1. There is a superfund identified in Eugene, an area that has been positively pinpointed as a contamination site for hazardous waste. This is Northwest Solvents and Supply in Chambers St. This has been marked for cleanup. The consequence is low because the area is localized and small ”. There are two ideas to reduce the risk probability, and one of them is to actually undertake the cleaning up of the place. The other is to disseminate information about the site being a superfund site, so as to guide property developers as well as the general community about the dangers that the superfund site pose to themselves and to the general environment, if improperly handled and treated (HomeFacts.com) 2. High Probability- High Consequence The chosen risk is this: “1. Among identified environmental hazards, there is the high probability of brownfields creating problems by releasing contaminants into the general environment. In Eugene there are two such brownfield sites, in the Oakridge Industrial Park and the McVay Highway Biofueling Station Site. The large areas involved make the potential consequences”. Given the large areas involved and the potential for widespread danger to the environment and to people, this is of high consequence, and the identification means that the threat is real, and the probability is high. There are two interventions to improve safety here. One is to make sure that an oversight group is present while the private developers undertake the work of assessing risks and putting mitigation measures in place to avoid an environmental catastrophe. The second is to again make sure that the proper parties, including the general public and the government, are made aware of the presence of these tagged environmental hazards in Eugene (HomeFacts.com). 3. Low Probability- Low Consequence The chosen risk is this: “1. Localized house fires occurring at different times of the year, even during the height of winter and affecting individual households”. These are routine fires that can be prevented with care and with the proper implementation of the existing protocols to mitigate the risks of fires. This is the basic need and problem that fire administration handles. The consequence is low in terms of damage to community property and in terms of the harm to people, because of the localized, household by household nature of the problem. The risk is low, given that Eugene historically has been able to manage fires and to mitigate the damages that they cause. The two ideas to improve safety and to reduce the probability risk here are one, to further shore up the information campaign that private entities undertake to make people aware of the threat of fires year-round and how to avoid them; and two, to make sure that people have easy and perpetual access to help in case of fires (Schwieger Insurance). 3. Low Probability- High Consequence The chosen risk is this: “There is the highest probability of a 5 magnitude earthquake hitting Eugene, and at higher magnitudes the probabilities diminish to zero at magnitude 7.2 and higher. These probabilities are low, but the consequences can be very high”. There are two ideas to mitigate the risks and to improve safety. One is to hold earthquake drills and similar community exercises aimed at improving awareness of the risks of earthquakes and to prepare the community for one. Two is to make sure that various infrastructure elements, such as public roads, bridges and buildings, all follow strict building codes to make sure that they are safe and secure in th event of earthquakes (HomeFacts.com (b)) C. Strategy to Sell the Economic Value of Risk Management Services Tied to Identified Risk in the Risk Probability Matrix There is value in an awareness campaign with regard to the various risks that the community faces, as have been identified in the probability matrix in this paper. The probability matrix can form the gist of such an information campaign, as a preliminary to a discussion on the value of risk management services addressing the various risks in the matrix point for point. This is the best strategy to do this, given that a general information campaign will not be able to convince a population which may want very detailed, very specific interventions. Among the different risks identified, for instance, the value of risk management services to deal with the problem posed by brownfields, as discussed earlier, can be sold not only to the public but to the very entities that are in charge of the contested and tagged facilities. One is an industrial park, that surely speaks the language of risk management and is able to understand the potential returns that such services can bring to the park, due partly to the enhancement in the parks value and likability due to the mitigation and elimination of the environmental hazards there (HomeFacts.com). D. One Governmental and One non-Governmental Agency Responsible for the Identification of, Assessment of, and Response to Identified Risks in the Community Risk Probability Matrix for Eugene, Oregon Local: Eugene City government and concerned government agencies, including the Eugene Fire Department; Schwieger Insurance (HomeFacts.com; Schwieger Insurance). County: Lane County government and concerned county agencies; Schwieger Insurance HomeFacts.com; Schwieger Insurance) State: Oregon State governors office; Oregon Mutual Insurance (HomeFacts.com; Oregon Mutual Insurance). Federal: FEMA, American Red Cross (FEMA, American Red Cross). IV. Conclusion There are substantial risks identified in this exercise, as reflected in the probability matrix, and the matrix itself can be the centerpiece of a strategy to sell risk management services targeted to address the most pressing risks, with the largest potential consequence and the highest probability of occurrence (Gale Guide to Cities of the United States; City of Eugene, Oregon; Essentix; Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce; Answers Corporation). Works Cited American Red Cross. “Home Page”. redcross.org. 2013. Web. 27 January 2013. Answers Corporation. “Eugene, Oregon”. Answers.com. 2012. Web. 27 January 2013. City of Eugene, Oregon. “Government”. Eugene-Or.gov. 2012. Web. 27 January 2013. Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce. “Facts and Figures”. Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce. 2012. Web. 27 January 2013. Essentix. “Welcome to Eugene, Oregon”. el.com To Eugene. 2012. Web. 27 January 2013. FEMA. “Home Page”. FEMA.gov. 2013. Web. 27 January 2013. Gale Guide to Cities of the United States. “Eugene, Oregon”. Gale Guide/Answers.com. 2012. Web. 27 January 2013. HomeFacts.com. “Eugene Environmental Hazards”. HomeFacts. 2013. Web. 27 January 2013. HomeFacts.com (b). “Eugene Earthquake Information”. HomeFacts. 2013. Web. 27 January 2013. Oregon Mutual Insurance. “Home Page”. Oregon Mutual Insurance Company. 2011. Web. 27 January 2013. Schwieger Insurance. “Fire Safety During the Holidays”. Schwieger Insurance Agency- Eugene, Oregon. 3 December 2012. Web. 27 January 2013. Read More