Demographic Transition - Essay Example

Demographic Transition and its Importance The model for demographic transition was initiated by the American demographer Warren Thompson. It explainsthe process of transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates and attributes these factors to the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. This theory suggests that there is a strong relationship between population transition and industrial development. The transition process under this model has been divided in four stages with each one having its distinct properties. The stage one of this model is associated with pre-modern times and it is characterized by very high and uniform birth and death rates. As the birth and death rates are identical in this phase therefore this phenomenon results in a very slow population growth and the population remains almost stationary over the period of time. The high death rates at this stage are imputed to lack of knowledge about disease prevention and shortages of food supply. Since in the days of yore, there was a lack of clean drinking water, scarcity of good food hygiene, and ineffective sanitary systems therefore it resulted in very high death rates. Diseases pertaining to water and food such as cholera, typhoid, and diarrhoea were discerned as fatal diseases and they were common killers at those times. A handful of child survived their early stages of life. Similarly, high birth rates at those periods are ascribed to all the factors that are linked with high fertility. Since the death rates among the children remained high therefore mothers craved for new children and there was no question as to the need for children even if the measures to control them had existed. The second stage of demographic transition (beginning of industrialization) observes a rapid decline in the death rate while the birth rate remains at the same level. As a consequence of this, the gap between deaths and births grows wider which in turn increases the population of the country. The drastic decline in death is ascribed to different factors. Firstly, economies observe massive improvements in their food supply furnished by higher yields as farming processes are refined and improved. Such improvements include crop rotation, selective breeding, and seed drill technology (Montgomery 2005). Secondly, development in country’s infrastructure improves the transportation system and hence it saves from death due to starvation. Finally, there are substantial improvements in the realm of public health, specifically during the childhood stage when there are improvements in water supply, sanitary systems and there is heightened awareness among parents about the causes of disease due to improved education in the generation. One of the distinguishing characteristic of stage two lies in the age structure of the population. As we know that majority of the deaths in first stage lie in the early childhood period therefore in the second stage due to high survival rate of children the age structure of the population becomes increasingly youthful. The stage three is characterized by stability in population due to decline in birth rates. The decline in birth rate hinges upon various factors. As the childhood death rate declines therefore many parents realize that they do not need to bear many children in order to sustain there geriatric life. Indeed there few children will hold up them in the future. This parameter also changes the role of a child from the traditional value and societal system. The parents devote more effort on their child and bring him up in a best possible way therefore the cost of raising the child drastically increases (education and other expenditures) as compared to the traditional system. As an economy grows (industrialization), more emphasis is placed on the education of females. Hence at this stage female literacy is considered to be of paramount importance. As the females become more literate their perception regarding the number of child changes. The women enter work force and they involve themselves in non-domestic activities as well and this changes their attitudes towards the burdens of childbearing. Finally, improvements in contraceptive methods and knowledge about better usage of them have contributed to the decline in birth rates. During this transition phase, the age structure of the population changes as there is a reduction in the youth dependency ratio because parents bear the costs of their child. The phenomenon also triggers the process of population aging due to decrease in birth rates. During the final stage of the demographic transition both the death and birth rates are low. Consequently, this results in a stable population and the age structure becomes older. Approximately one-third of the countries have passed through all the four stages and completed their transition. Whereas, two-third of all the countries still remain in the early or intermediate phases of the transition. Most of these countries are located in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and the Middle East. Source: THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (Montgomery 2005) At this junction we have defined the concept of demographic transition and we now need to demonstrate why it is important in the contemporary global arena. This demographic transition has produced drastic improvements in economies by converting larger share of the fruits of factor accumulation and technological progress into growth of income per capita. In spite of that fact, demographic transition has raised grave implications and they have profound effects in different realms. Due to rapid decline in fertility and mortality rates, the countries observe a radical transformation in their age structures. The demographic transition results in a more aging population therefore it has some important consequences. As a country’s population becomes more aging it poses a serious challenge to meet the needs of elder people. We know that children are an important source of earning for their parents but the fact is that demographic transition declines the number of children therefore it becomes difficult to cater to the needs of elder people due to lack of sources for expenditure. The household structure would change completely and we would find more elderly people living alone in the future. The physical condition of the older people gets weaker with the increase in age and they are prone to different type of chronic diseases. This challenge creates a burden for the government as it has to meet the needs of the elder people. The government should have adequate resources and appropriate facilities to take care of the elder population. It should have a good home care and health insurance system to have a close supervision of the people. As there are high chances that the support from children fades away therefore the government should provide elder people with proper economic security by increasing government subsidy (Sun 2007). Many of the elder people will long to stay at their homes therefore there housing conditions should be refurbished and should be provided with a proper and hygienic environment. All the above factors will increase the cost by a substantial amount and the government needs to plan wisely and generate enough sources of revenue to cope with these challenges. The other issue that underlines the importance of demographic transition pertains to ageing workforce. The continuous decline of workers younger than 30 years will give rise to three major trends; a lack of young people in the job market, an ageing of company workforce and a continuously shrinking labour supply (As qtd. in Thun, Grobler, and Miczka 2007). It is often quoted that younger people are at an edge as compared to the older people due to an advantage in natural physiological and psychological processes. The younger people are more productive and have a higher willingness to learn and adapt to different circumstances. As a consequence of this demographic trap it will lead to a stiff competition in the discipline of human resources. Companies which will be able to balance their workforce will be able to survive in the cutthroat competition. In addition to the challenge of ageing work force, there might be a dearth of young labour in the coming times due to low fertility rates. Since their will be rising trend towards higher educational level after demographic transition, therefore the age of joining the workforce will increase which as a result will shrink the labour supply. Gender discrimination has often been seen in developing countries during demographic transition. Countries where there is a preference for a son are most prone to this issue. Parents identify the sex of their unborn child through prenatal sex-detection technologies such as ultrasound and they often abort it if that fetus is a female. Girls with older female siblings are also prone to parental discrimination in terms of resources such as health care (Mcnay 2005). A researcher even found that child mortality rates were 53% higher for girls born to mothers who already had one or more surviving daughters than among all other children (as qtd. in Mcnay 2005). Bibliography Mcnay, K. 2005, "The implications of the demographic transition for women, girls and gender equality: a review of developing country evidence”, Progress in Development Studies, Vol. 5, Issue 2, p. 115 Montgomery, K. 2005, THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION [Accessed 22nd November 2008]. Available from World Wide Web: Sun, T. 2007, Post-Demographic Transition Challenges In Taiwan [Accessed 21st November 2008]. Available from World Wide Web: Thun, J., Grobler, A. and Miczka S. 2007, "The impact of the demographic transition on manufacturing: Effects of an ageing workforce in German industrial firms”, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol. 18, No. 8, pp. 985-999 Read More