Intelligence Analysis of Al Qaeda Planned and Actual Biennial Attacks - Research Paper Example

Intelligence Analysis of Al Qaeda Planned and Actual Biennial Attacks Summary of analysis When? Six months immediately preceding the national elections and during each subsequent national biennial election Where?. New York and Washington. In addition, National Political Convention cities. How? Primary explosives, mainly use of other modalities of weapons of mass destruction. Suicide attacks: personal-borne, vehicle-borne, and aerial vehicles. Who? Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. Why? To continue one of Al Qaedas tactics of attempting to influence the US biennial activities in favour of war hawks. They want to launch terrorism surges during six months and in the immediate eight-week period preceding the biennial elections. Abstract The state fusion centre has an aim of detecting, investigating and responding to criminal and terrorist activities. The analysis shall assist to facilitate information to the law enforcers. In addition, the centre wants to form a collaboration with homeland security partners in preventing, protecting against, and responding to crime and terrorism. The analysis will be the framework for state and urban fusion centres to conduct a study on the threats posed by terrorism activities. In addition, the analysis will help to thwart any attacks that Al Qaeda wishes to coincide with US national biennial political campaigns. It will give recommendations after studying the past attacks by Al Qaeda. Background In late 1998, Al Qaeda targeted US embassies in both Kenya and Tanzania. It was a successful mission for the group. Then there was the bombing of American consulate in Pakistan. Al Qaida planned to kill 5000 people in Mumbai, but they managed to kill a less number. The worst attack was in September of 2008. It was the biggest terrorism attack in the worlds history. History indicates that Al Qaeda always launch their surges on the day preceding every biennial US election, since 2000 Fore cast Al Qaeda has a cyclical pattern of conducting attacks on America, six weeks preceding the elections. There was a partially accurate pattern since 2000 to 2008. Experts have provided forewarning about the attacks. The forewarning is accurate and indicates the timings and locations of the attacks. The experts predicted accurately the 9/11 attacks and the failed plot to send bomb parcels to the US. With the attacks, the experts predicted a possibility of the attacks in 2012, to ensure there is an election rigging. There is sufficient evidence to prove the attacks. The terrorists in New York, targeted financial institutions, in the city. Furthermore, there were catastrophic attacks in Washington. Government and military buildings were the main targets. All these attacks happened six days before US national biennial elections. The terrorists were from Yemen. They are a branch of Al Qaeda. In addition to the attacks in American soil, the terrorist bombed New Delhi and Tel Aviv (Riedel, 2010). All these pattern of attacks shows the US is vulnerable to future attacks. The attacks happen during the election period. Al Qaeda mainly targets the cities that have the countrys premier symbols. They will later claim that they mistakenly targeted the cities. The terrorists have an aim at critical buildings such as the Bank of America, Pentagon, and the Capitol. Al Qaeda wants to surprise the country in the future attacks. Their command structure may not adhere to the pasts sequels. It is a means of ensuring the shock of the attack is to the maximum. In addition, the terrorists may reduce the time of the attack from six months preceding the elections, to a month. It is evident Al Qaeda have failed to influence the Americans election results since 2000 by conducting physical attacks. For example, the 9/11 attacks did not affect the outcome of the US election at all, though it caused the greatest damage. The top organ of Al Qaeda in the future ought to launch psychological attacks with the aim of influencing the elections. Any psychological damage has to occur within a very short time. It will demand the Al Qaeda to conduct the psychological operation on the days very close to the voting day. The choice of a close date will ensure there is a greater impact on the election results. Even if the Al Qaeda conducts a premature attack, it will very close to the day of the election (Brightman, 2011). Reasoning The graph in the appendix shows how the attacks mainly happen during the six weeks preceding the elections. The attacks are normally great surges. It shows how there is an increasing intensity of future attacks, especially during the month of October. The month of October is vulnerable because of previous attacks in this month. October is the period where campaigns are on their climaxes. Al Qaeda wants to use this period to influence their position in the political arena. They want to sway the US elections and influence the voting patterns. In October of 2000, the group bombed USS COLE. In addition, during that period, the top leadership of the group failed to launch the 9/11 attacks. In 2002, October, Al Qaeda attacked Aden port in Moscow. In 2004, the group conducted attacks in Tashkent, Egyptian restaurant, Beslan and Jakarta. There was a plot to attack Atlantic airlines in August of 2006. In addition, in October of 2010, the group failed in a plot to send air cargo bomb parcels to the US (Greenberg, 2005). The past efforts by Al Qaeda were to rig elections in favour of the republican candidates, especially Bush and McCain. They want to ensure their efforts of rigging the elections are a success by causing psychological damage. They aim at causing a short-term political shift in the Election Day. The psychological operation shall occur during the few days to the Election Day, probably two days. The Al Qaeda wants the US people to choose in leaders who support war ideologies. The psychological attack may gain a boost from the fact that the Republicans possess much power in the congress. The congressional representatives have concerns about the Democratic Partys economic policies. The US has experienced increased political takeover from the Republican. It means in the near future; a Republican will head the country. Al Qaedas leaders want to incite American military imperialists. They want the imperialists to have a view that America is always the aggressor when fighting with Al Qaeda forces. The USS COLE bombing is the main reason for this incitement. The strategy intends to create a bad image for the US. The top leaders of Al Qaeda want the other nations to blame America as the beginners of the conflict (Yoo, 2014). The strategy wants to portray the real Al Qaeda ideology. They have a Machiavellian insurgent plan. The group wants to continue their late leaders apocalyptic overarching purpose. The group wants to imitate the mythological perspective of the conflict between the Satan Empire and the Muslim God. The group plans to attack America in the future as a way of continuing the myth. Al Qaeda wants to expand the myth by triggering a worldwide war. They want to sway the votes so that they could attack America again to advance the apocalyptic prophecy that the world is ending soon. Al Qaeda believes the world is ending because of the climax of wars back in their country of origins such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel and other Middle East Countries especially Arabian Peninsula. There is a reason for the increasing participation of the Al Qaedas Yemen branch in the attacks. The group has renewed their negative campaign against the homeland security. It is because the department believes the group has influenced America into involving in the Lower Arabian Peninsula war. The involvement of the US in flaming up the war between Israel and Iran is the main reason the homeland security believes the Yemen branch of Al Qaeda is influencing America. The entire villainous plan by Al Qaeda is a strategy to fool the world that the war is the reality of the prophesied Apocalypse War. Al Qaeda wants the world to view their leader as the Muslim Messiah. In addition, Al Qaeda wants the world to view America as a Satan Empire. The war is the means of the Muslim Messiah terminating the spread of this Satan Empire. Al Qaeda demands respect from international nations because it is a righteous thing aimed at protecting the Muslim world. The strategy is the same used by the American military in the Middle East invasion. They view the Middle East countries as terrorists. The difference comes when experts view Al Qaeda are playing a defensive role while the US is playing the offensive role. The bombing attacks in the US by Al Qaida are just provocation characteristics because the US has invaded their countries. All the bombings are just a means of defensive insurgency. Al Qaeda wants the nations to see their mission as a way of healing the pain and hatred the Muslim world has towards America. The group believes they have assisted in quelling the tension that is in the Muslim world. They want to ensure their strategy is a success by reducing their terrorism activities. They passed through four stages in reducing the terrorism activities. The first stage was from 9/12/2001 to April 2003. There were no attacks whatsoever from Al Qaeda. From May 2003-July 2006, there was reduced the number of attacks in the Muslim nation. It was the second stage. The third stage was from August 2006 to November 2008 where there was a continuation of 9/11 attacks in the Muslim countries. From September 2009 to today, attacks were only in US soil. It represented the fourth stage. It shows how Al Qaeda still has an aim in attacking the US in the future. Al Qaeda has shifted its geographical target from international countries to mainly the US. They want to ensure their plans of attacking the US is a success by influencing the US political stage. There is an imminent 9/11 attack the country may face in the near future. The group plans to attack the American finance and political capital. It is a means of discrediting the current countrys regime. The future attack will surprise many and in the end cause a multiplier effect. Al Qaedas will aim at negatively affecting the countrys economy because the current regime has gained fame for improving the economy. Moreover, the exposure of the American insecurity will more likely to influence the next elections and incite military chiefs to attack Yemen and Pakistan as a means of punishment (Linschoten, 2012). The terrorism activities by Al Qaeda in America will make the group a hero in front of the Muslim World. Majority of the Muslims who support Al Qaeda activities will be satisfied by the achievements of Al Qaeda. Top leaders of the group will want to continue painting a good picture of Al Qaeda in front of their supporters. They will improve their picture by conducting further attacks in Americans homeland. In addition, they will use more advanced and dangerous weapons. Al Qaeda avoided the use of biological weapons during their past attacks. The groups top leaders may now resolve to use chemical weapons in their next attack. The group believes they are fighting the Satans empire by attacking the US. Al Qaeda leaders believe they are doing a righteous thing. They may embrace the use of sarin gas in their attacks, in the US. In addition, the group may embrace the use of dirty bombs. They want to copy the American and Israel style of using banned radiological and chemical weapons. During the past, the group was reluctant to use these banned weapons but they may be laying down preparations for a bigger attack using the weapons. In 2008, the group demonstrated how they could attack using the banned weapons, when they plotted a Pakistan and Indias 9/11. It almost resulted to war between Pakistan and India. Al Qaeda wanted to remind India of the December parliament attacks. The 9/11 attack itself was a definition of nuclear risk-taking because it was an attack on a nuclear superpower which led to America attacking Pakistan. All the cases show how Al Qaeda was fuelling war between its enemies, so that they could begin a nuclear war. The group wanted nations to view it as a syndicate that embraces morality. Al Qaeda wants to push for a more psychological damage. The group may conduct further attacks in India, Israel, and America itself. The Yemen and Pakistan affiliates of Al Qaeda will be the main perpetrators of the attacks. It plans to conduct the attacks on the elections eve. Collectively, the plans will just be a logical continuation of the late Ladens ambition to continue the Apocalypse war and portray him as the Muslim Messiah. Recent Bellwethers Former Presidential advisor Condoleezza Rice said that the intelligence pointed at future attacks by Al Qaeda overseas. Al Qaeda responded to an intelligence report by saying they will attack Americans in Europe. The group said they would use the "Mumbai-Massacre-style" to attack the Americans. As a means of fighting terrorism, the US government expanded their terrorism surveillance from homeland to overseas to prevent future attacks of their citizens living abroad. There was a leaked video that showed how Osama bin Laden had planned the attack. The video leaked on June 2001. Al Qaeda was to release that video two weeks after June 2001. Furthermore, there are plots, which Al Qaeda has prepared. Everyone knows about these plots. A Pakistan planned to attack New Delhi and a Yemen planned to attack Washington. In addition, there was a plot by Al Qaeda to attack US embassy in Israel. The Israeli authorities thwarted this plan, and they arrested three Palestinians. There has been a change in propaganda by Al Qaeda. They spent eight years without carrying out any attacks in the US. The group resumed their attacks in 2009. Al Qaeda had a plot in 2010 to attack America at home. They created propaganda that American Muslims in the US should conduct these attacks. The Al Qaida Yemen branch was the developers of this propaganda. The leadership of Al Qaeda has welcomed this plan. They want the Muslims in the US to carry out future attacks. By causing physiological attacks on Americans in order to rig elections, Al Qaeda wants to use any means to influence Americans election. In addition, the group is adequately preparing for the next 9/11. Recommendations The basic objective of the fusion centre is to create a public awareness forum, which will help the people understand in depth Al Qaida group. Fusion centre wants the people to be aware of the future plots especially to influence the elections. The group wants to hijack Americas democracy and peace. Al Qaeda is a foreign influence that wants to shake the foundation of America. The groups virus wants to influence the US national elections by any means. It is the evident the group wants other countries to develop hatred towards the US. They want international countries to support its international insurgency. The efforts of fusion centre to highlight the groups plan will help authorities tackle terrorism. In addition, it will help in informing the US electorate on the attempt of voter manipulation. Beyond thwarting the groups future attacks, fusion centre wants to prevent any scenarios of terrorism. Prevention will be a success if the group alerts the Americans and the Muslim world about these strikes and their timings. It is a method of preventing another 9/11. Fusion Centre wants to protect the next election from any international influence, especially the Al Qaida. Fusion Centre will provide the government with information about Al Qaidas overarching bids to cause the US to invade Iran, Arabian Peninsula, and Pakistan. Fusion centre advocates for the prevention of Al Qaeda from killing many people because of their apocalyptic cult. The group has an overarching ambition. They are imitating the popular apocalyptic mythology. In addition, they are inciting the whole world towards the nuclear holocaust. By informing Americans about Al Qaedas ambition, Fusion Centre is trying to prevent a possible genocide. The centre will spread the awareness message across the world to sensitize the people. Such apocalyptic cults are the main reason Al Qaeda wants to influence Americas election results. The Centre will assist in quelling the religious tension between the Muslims and the Christians. By exposing the truth of Al Qaedas ambition, it will convince the Muslims that Al Qaeda is not the Muslim Messiah but rather a terrorist organisation. The centre will be the main weapon against Al Qaedas ideological base (Szabó, 2011). References Brightman, H. J. (2011). Todays White Collar Crime: Legal, Investigative, and Theoretical Perspectives. Chicago: Routledge. Greenberg, K. J. (2005). Al Qaeda Now: Understanding Todays Terrorists. New York: Cambridge University Press. Linschoten, A. S. (2012). An Enemy We Created: The Myth of the Taliban-Al Qaeda Merger in Afghanistan. New York: Oxford University Press. Riedel, B. O. (2010). The Search for Al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future. Chicago: Brookings Institution Press. Szabó, K. T. (2011). Anticipatory Action in Self-Defence: Essence and Limits under International Law. Los Angeles: Springer. Yoo, J. (2014). Point of Attack: Preventive War, International Law, and Global Welfare. London: Oxford University Press. Appendix Read More