The Capabilities And Intentions Of Al-Qaeda - Essay Example

WHAT ARE THE CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS OF AL-QAEDA Introduction This paper aims to give a brief background of the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization and the activities they have been associated with in the past. Furthermore the focus of the paper is on the intentions and goals of Al-Qaeda and how capable are they to accomplish these goals. Background Al-Qaeda Al-Qaeda is an Islamic terrorist organization that has misused the Islamic teachings to propagate internal resentment of a few fundamentalists caused by desperation against western forces. These resentments are not totally baseless as the western world has down-casted the eastern world since times immemorial by trying to superimpose themselves on the lesser creed. However the methodology to show this anger is infuriated up to the height of absolute hatred for the western nations. Their stated purpose is to remove the U.S. from Saudi Arabia, the Middle East, and if possible, from the world arena (DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, 2001); (Gunaratna, 2002). Origin Al-Qaeda is part of the "The World Islamic Front" (the networks of the networks) which further has many distinguished terrorist organizations from all over the world including, Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaida, Al Jihad, the Islamic Group, Jamaat ul Ulema-e-Pakistan, the Moslem Brotherhood, components of the 'black' (operational) network from the defunct Bank of Credit and Commerce Inc. (BCCI), and elements of Abu Nidal's terrorist organization. However, the most successful organization has been Al-Qaeda, especially after the horrifying September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center (DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, 2001). The leader as we know is Osama Bin Ladin however since his hiding, Al-Qaeda was been run by a superior strategist, Ayman al-Zawahiri (Hoffman, 2001); (McCarthy, 2004). Ironically for the United States, which is Al-Qaeda's number 1 enemy, the creation of Al-Qaeda was done thorugh secret channels by the US to drive out the Soviet Union (which was at that time US's number 1 enemy) from Afghanistan. At that time, he muslim fundamentalists were recurited to oppose the Soviet invasion to aid in US's mission in destroying the soviet power which ended in the disparging of Soviet Union in Russia and other countries (Jr., 2002). Attacks List From then onwards, these Muslim fundamentalists formed the Al-Qaeda organization and formed their credo to destroy all those nations that were either practicing a tainted Islamic life or were Non-Islamic nations trying to take over the Islamic nations. Till now, Al-Qaeda has committed numerous acts of violence against such countries using conventional bombings, shoot-outs, and now more recently, suicide bombings. Important and high-level acts of violence include the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, 11 September 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, a four month bombing campaign in France in 1995 targeting the metro, the Arc de Triomphe and a Jewish school in Lyon, multiple bombings in Pakistan in 2002, bomb attacks against 4 trains in Madrid in 2004 when terrorists blew themselves up when confronted by police, and 4 explosions in UK in 2005 in tube trains and a bus. (Archive, 2005) Intentions Ever since the formation of Al-Qaeda, their sole objective has been to destroy the western influence on Islamic lives even if it means death and destruction. And they have shown that they are ready to take their own lives to convey their messages to the world. The global media has also been very actively covering Al-Qaeda related news and every once in a while, a video tape of Osama Bin Laden appears on our TV screens, with the Al-Qaeda leader congratulating his people for the attacks and continuously warning America against further attacks. Osama's nominal deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, published a treatise in the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Alsharq al-Awsat in December 2001 with the title "Knights Under the Prophet's Banner." The article painted a picture of Islam under siege by a predatory, Western-dominated world in which "there is no solution without jihad" (Hoffman, 2001). In the article, he argued for 1. The need to inflict maximum casualties on the opponent, no matter how much time and effort such operations take, for this is the language understood by the West 2. The need to concentrate on martyrdom operations as the most successful way to inflict damage and the least costly in casualties to the mujahedeen By the statements published by the current commander in chief of Al-Qaeda, we can see that it emphasizes on taking a furious revenge against the western countries. The Visionary The leading visionary, Osama Bin Laden, is now out of picture since his run from US forces. According to Asian intelligence sources, it has been two years since bin Laden reportedly chaired a meeting of Al-Qaeda's Majlis-al-Shura, the movement's most senior deliberative body (Hoffman, 2001). The targets set by Osama, are now been carried and controlled by Ayman al-Zawahiri. Under his leadership, Al-Qaeda has again become a global threat poised to strike the US again (LeBlanc, 2004). Ayman al-Zawahiri, being a better strategist than Osama, has formulated Al-Qaeda's strategy in terms of 'far' and 'near' enemies. "The United States is the 'far enemy' whose defeat, he argued, was an essential prerequisite to the elimination of the 'near enemy' -- the corrupt and authoritarian anti-Islamic regimes in the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia that could not remain in power without U.S. support. Zawahiri's strategic vision set off the chain of events that led to 9/11." (Hoffman, 2001) Trapping the US An interesting theory came into light, when outgoing Director of National Intelligence, John D. Negroponte gave his testimony. According to the analysis of his testimony, US's involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq have proven beneficial for Al-Qaeda. Since Osama Bin Laden wants to engage the US on his terms, US's act on terrorism has done exactly what Al-Qaeda wanted. By meeting the terrorist forces in their own field, even with an over powering military operation, US has still not able to stabilize the regions. What the US military had described as a jihadist 'magnet' or 'flytrap' some four years ago, they have found themselves led into the trap and held captives just like Al-Qaeda had predicted. Since the 'network of networks', retains the initiative by trapping U.S. to operate 'inside the intentions and plans' of Al-Qaida, it has become more successful in spreading terrorism all over the globe. As Al-Qaida couldn't destroy the U.S. forces inside the U.S., nor it could convince the U.S. to leave the Middle East using terror attacks, their intention of the terror attacks was of provocation so that the U.S. would engage and deploy forces to the Middle East (like it did), where such forces could be destroyed. (Bergen, 2004); (Murphy, 2004) Al-Qaeda and WMDs On seeing the horrifying affect of 9/11 attacks, Al-Qaeda remains committed to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to conduct deadlier attacks than those on 9/11. It was reported that prior to 9/11, Osama bin Laden had a meeting with two senior Pakistani nuclear scientists to help him get a 'dirty-bomb'. However, US's quick war on terror in Afghanistan disrupted Al Qaeda's efforts to develop WMD capabilities. But with situation coming in control again for the Al-Qaeda, it seems very likely that WMDs are not that far from the purchase list. (Bergen, 2004) Present and Future Intentions The present and future intentions of Al-Qaida's is to either make Middle East 'ungovernable,' or drive off US military back home. Furthermore Al-Qaeda wants to gain control or to destroy the petroleum production system in the region so that leaving the U.S. with no or greatly reduced real interests to remain in the region. Also control or destruction of the petroleum production system in the Middle East, would greatly reduce the availability of non-renewable necessary products such as oil and gas thus inducing a global economic depression by degrading or destroying critical industries of developing and advanced Nation-States, and drastically shift the geopolitical balance. (DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, 2001) (Hall, 2007) Capabilities Al-Qaeda's intentions to hit US again and this time more badly, is not in question. According to a secret FBI report obtained by ABC news, "Al-Qa'ida leadership's intention to attack the United States is not in question, however, their capability to do so is unclear, particularly in regard to 'spectacular' operations. We believe al-Qa'ida's capability to launch attacks within the United States is dependent on its ability to infiltrate and maintain operatives in the United States" (Scott, 2005). The testimony by CIA Director Tenet before the Senate Armed Services Committee in 2004 also propagates that, "The al-Qaeda leadership structure we charted after September 11 is seriously damaged, but the group remains as committed as ever to attacking the US homeland" (Tenet, 2004) Al-Qaeda's main assets in the act of terrorism across the globe lay in their human resource. The al-Qaeda leadership structure we charted after September 11 is seriously damaged, but the group remains as committed as ever to attacking the US homeland. Backed up by "The World Islamic Front", Al-Qaeda has a very powerful support in most Muslim nations. Some of the key members of the Al-Qaeda are Osama Bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Azzam al-Ameriki, Saif Al-Adil, Shaikh Saiid Al-Masri, Abu Ayyub al-Masri and Abu Ubaydah al-Masri. (FoxNews, 2003) With open support in Iraq and Afghanistan and with secretive support in Pakistan, Al-Qaeda members are 'facilitating' independent groups of people to do their dirty work. Current reports estimate that Al-Qaeda affiliates operate in more than 65 countries around the globe (Hansell, 2005). Also al-Qaeda has been on the look out for recruiting 'sleeper-cells', that are essentially American based but against the US. 'Sleeper-cells' haven't been found in US, however FBI gets no solace from this fact especially when identifying anti-US citizens of America look no different from the rest. (Scott, 2005) With such a network it in not any wonder, where an Al-Qaeda led or influenced attack can take place. They use conventional arms un-conventionally to reach to their goals. Guns and ammunitions, bombs of all sorts, poisons and torture devices are used to conduct operations. The Al-Qaeda training manual was discovered from Manchester (England) Metropolitan Police during a search of an Al-Qaeda member's home. The training manual provided every kind of training and methodology for an Al-Qaeda member to conduct operations. The way to counterfeit currency and forge documents, training details about communication and transportation, safety and security, weapons, espionage, torture and detaining prisoners were all included in that manual (Cryptome & DSS, 2001). The existense of such a document is proof enough that Al-Qaeda is capable of doing serious damage in any nation. Al-Qaeda has always been interested in getting hold of weapons of mass destruction. According to some experts, Al-Qaeda has the capability to conduct small scale damage attacks in US, however, they are waiting to get their hands on WMDs so that a wide scale attack can be conducted (Lefkovitz, 2004). Reports say that Al-Qaeda has its hold on some chemical weapons and has tested 'cyanide' while biological agents such as 'Anthrax' have been reportedly used through American postage. Nuclear materials are on the most wanted list of Al-Qaeda, however its availability and the political will of any state to share such materials is extremely low, and thus this kind of material has remained elusive from Al-Qaeda (Woolsey, 2003). The most successful type of attacks has been suicide bombings and it is likely that this approach will be used repeatedly in the near future until Al-Qaeda gets a more dangerous alternative. (Salama & Hansell, 2005); (NCI, 2004) Conclusions Information and analysis suggests that Al-Qaeda has yet to acquire real WMDs for its operations (Linzer, 2004). However it is extremely important to note that Al-Qaeda websites and tapes have continued to pursue this activity and it is a matter of time before some sort of WMD gets in their hands. But for the present, mass scale destruction is not eminent. Yet it does not mean to lower the guard or reduce vigilance. Where in the past the laws enforcement agencies of the world have stopped access of such materials to Al-Qaeda, it is increasingly important to continue this control (Jenkins., 2002). It can be argued that most dangerous aspect of the Al-Qaeda network is its ability to recruit and replenish its ranks with young jihadists who are willing to die for their cause around the globe. The risk from Al-Qaeda's conventional terror tactics as seen in recent years probably exceeds any current risk from attempts to develop or deploy WMD agents (Salama & Hansell, 2005). In the future, the Al-Qaeda and their affiliates are likely to continue using conventional warfare unconventionally to yield the results they want. Works Cited 1. Andrew McCarthy. (2004). Global War on Terrorism No, It's a Global War on Militant Islam. Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security International , 53. 2. Archive, T. B. (2005). International terrorism: significant attacks associated with Al Qaida. Retrieved January 3, 2008, from Number 10: http://www.number10.gov.uk/output/Page7930.asp 3. Bergen, P. (2004). Al Qaeda at 2.0: The Terrorist Organization After 9/11 . Retrieved January 3, 2008, from wilsoncenter: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfmfuseaction=events.event_summary&event_id=100918 4. DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, I. (2001). AL- QAIDA'S ENDGAME Retrieved January 3, 2008, from Cryptome: http://cryptome.org/alqaida-game.htm 5. DSS, C. a. (2001). An Analysis of Al-Qaida Tradecraft. Retrieved January 3, 2008, from Justice Department: http://www.justice.gov/ag/trainingmanual.htm 6. Etgar Lefkovitz. (2004). Terror Expert: Qaeda WMD Attack on US Likely Soon. Retrieved January 3, 2008, from Jerusalem Post: http://ebird.as.osd.mil/edles/ 7. FoxNews. (2003). Status of Major Al Qaeda Members. 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