Effect of the Media on Voting Patterns - Literature review Example

Effect of the Media on Voting Patterns In a study conducted by Newton and Brynin, data from the British Household Panel Study (BHPS) was utilised, inorder to determine voting pattern in elections. An analysis of the voting pattern in the years 1992 and 1997 indicated that newspapers had a significant influence. Moreover, it was deduced by this study that the effect of newspapers was greater on the supporters of the Labour Party than they were on the supporters of the Conservative Party (Newton and Brynin 2001, 265). Furthermore, the effect of newspapers was determined to be greater in the elections of 1992 than in the 1997 elections. In this study, the authors have conjectured that newspapers have a long term effect on voting patterns. It was believed by these political theorists that the data obtained from the BHPS could provide substantial insight, into the changes that transpire between elections, during pre – elections and in election years. The significant feature of the BHPS is that it gathers information about newspaper reading habits, on a daily basis. In general, many newspapers recommend to their readers the candidate to vote for, and this usually constitutes the basis for their classification. However, the BHPS adopted a markedly different categorisation, by classifying newspapers according to their long – term support to political parties (Newton and Brynin 2001, 272). The BHPS study, fails to consider the partisan attitude of newspapers, and chiefly concentrates on national daily newspapers. A significant disadvantage with the BHPS data is that its questionnaires did not query readers, regarding the amount of time dedicated by them for reading newspapers. Respondents were also not questioned about their interest in the political content of the newspapers read by them (Newton and Brynin 2001, 272). These lacunae in this study render it suspect. In the working paper Was it the Sun that won it again? the author based his study on the data obtained from the 1997 British Election Campaign Study. The latter entailed a four wave panel study, and was carried out between spring of 1996 and the weeks immediately after May 1, 1997, the Election Day. The first phase of the study involved direct interaction with the respondents. In this first phase of this study, the 1996 British Social Attitudes survey had supplied the respondents with the necessary questionnaires (Curtice 1999). The second phase of the study consisted of interviews over the telephone, and was conducted during the first two weeks of April 1997. By that time the election campaign was well underway. Thereafter, interviews over the telephone were conducted during the last two weeks of April of that year. The final phase of this study was conducted immediately after the polling day (Curtice 1999). Media coverage of election campaigns has emerged as a critical activity, and most of the political parties seek this intervention in their election campaigns. The reason behind the attribution of such importance is on account of the fact that the media have become a major source of information. The political discussions and debates on the media have also gained universal importance (Lange 1999). In addition, media reach a very large number of people. It is a general assumption that newspapers influence the voting behaviour of people. However, in the 1997 elections, it was observed that the overall impact of newspapers was insignificant. In the context of whether the UK was to become a member of the single European currency, the influence exerted by newspapers on individual voters was minimal (The Sun’s switch to the Conservatives is good news for The Sun 2009). The Sun switched its allegiance to the Labour Party and became an ardent supporter of the Conservative Party. However, it could not influence voters, and it was contended in some quarters that the influence of the Sun would diminish in the future. Curtice further contends that the number of newspaper readers has gradually decreased over the years (The Sun’s switch to the Conservatives is good news for The Sun 2009). Thus the Sun does not influence its readers, but merely reflects their views. The Sun constitutes the largest circulation newspaper in the UK, with a subscriber base of the order of 5 million. The present circulation of the Sun has reduced by 35%, and several researchers have contended that the voting pattern had not been influenced by newspapers, even when they were more popular. Furthermore, there was no change in voting behaviour, between the people who read newspapers and those who did not. The best example in this area is the Sun’s failure to modify the voting pattern, despite its overwhelming support for the Conservative Party (Hundal 2010). Thus, it was strongly believed that the media could not influence the outcome of elections. The majority of the readers of the Sun changed their party affiliations. For instance, in the 1987 election, nearly 41% of its readers had voted for the Conservative Party; 31% for the Labour Party; and 19% for the Liberal Democratic Party. However, after ten years, in 1997, 30% voted for the Tory Party, which constituted an 11 points reduction, in comparison to the percentage of votes cast in 1987. The Liberal Democrats received, just 12%, which was a decrease of 7 points; whereas, the Labour Party gained 21 points with a 52% voting proportion (Kettle 2008). Newspapers strive hard to satisfy their readers and to abstain from alienating them. Newspapers survive by providing information on various topics to their readers. They receive revenue by selling their papers; and the extension of support to any one political party, will lose readers who favour other parties. In 1992, the Sun had proudly declared in its front page It’s the Sun wot won it (Kettle 2008). This caption was widely criticised for its presumptuousness. It was convincingly argued that if the Sun genuinely reflected the views of its readers, then there could not have been a divided voting pattern in that election. In 1987, a majority of the Sun’s readers were pro – Tory. If the claims of the Sun were correct, then this should not have been the case. Similarly, in 1997, the majority of Sun’s readers voted for the Labour Party (Kettle 2008). Thus, it was not the Sun wot won it. The readers of the Sun did it. In the article, The National Press and Party Voting in the UK, Political Studies it was contended by the writers that the paper reading habit would affect voting patterns in elections. These writers based their analysis on the data collected by BHMS, which collects information regarding newspaper reading habits, on a day to day basis. The major lacuna identified in the study conducted by the BHMS was that it had collected the data, in respect of only the national newspapers. Moreover, in its questionnaire it had failed to include queries relating to the time spent by the readers on political content. Moreover, questions regarding political interests had not been asked. In the long run, it was observed that people read newspapers, according to their political leanings. Individuals read the paper that supports the political party of their choice. As such their political preferences decide their selection of newspapers. The BHMS study based its data collection on the long term support rendered by the papers to political parties. In the short term it was claimed that newspaper reading would have no effect on the voting pattern of the readers. In contrast to this the article, Was it the Sun that won it again, emphasises the minimal effect of newspapers on transforming the political convictions of their readers. The Sun, which enjoys the status of being the most widely read newspaper in the UK, had switched its support for a political party, just before the 1997 elections. This had a negligible effect on the voting pattern. Another area, in which the newspapers were seen to have an insignificant effect, was that in the voting relating to the adoption of a single European currency by the UK. In this all important area, the people adhered to their convictions and were least influenced and impressed by the exhortations and opinions of the newspapers. Undoubtedly, the newspapers have some influence on the political beliefs of their readers. However, this influence is insufficient to determine aggregate outcomes. Moreover, despite the markedly partisan attitude of the newspapers, their partisan impact on the populace is minimal. The 1997 elections clearly showed that the newspapers have some influence on voting patterns. All the same, this influence had a modicum of effect on the overall election results. In these two articles conclusions were arrived at, based on two different research studies, taking into consideration different variables. Apparently these conclusions are different. However, the overall result shows that newspaper reading has little or no effect on the voting decisions of the people. Bibliography Curtice, J. "Was it the Sun wot won it again? The influence of newspapers in the 1997 election campaign." Working Paper Number 75. Centre for Research into Elections and Social Trends, September 1999. Hundal, Sunny. What happens to politics after the Sun dies? June 3, 2010. http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/06/sun-media-labour-politics (accessed December 14, 2010). Kettle, Martin. Actually, it wasnt the Sun wot won it. Sun readers did. June 7, 2008. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/07/media.pressandpublishing (accessed December 14, 2010). Lange, Yasha. Media and elections. June 1999. http://www.coe.int/t/dghl/standardsetting/media/doc/Media&Elections_en.pdf (accessed December 14, 2010). Newton, Kenneth, and Malcolm Brynin. "The National Press and Party Voting in the UK." Political Studies, 2001: 49(2), 265 – 285. The Sun’s switch to the Conservatives is good news for The Sun. October 7, 2009. http://www.prmoment.com/news/the-sun-s-switch-to-the-conservatives-is-good-news-for-the-sun.aspx (accessed December 14, 2010). Read More