A Reality of Cairos Past and Future - Essay Example

Overcrowding: A Reality of Cairo's Past and Future According to United Nations Population Division study conducted in 1997, that urban population across the world has jumped from the 750 Million individuals in record in 1950 to 2.5 Billion close to the end of the 20th century: a progression of an average of 61 Million persons per year which is expected to result to a 5 Billion urban population by 2025 ("Urban overcrowding"). Cairo, the largest African city, has not been an exception. With an estimated 16 Million residents, Cairo has continued its ancient role as a key center for Egypt and the rest of Africa. Crowding is not just a problem that concerns space; it also applies pressure of resources, space and opportunity. Cairo's efforts to mange its population is mirrored by a continental program in Africa that aims to decentralize commerce and industries by 2015 (Raychaudhuri 6). In 2005, the Egypt Human Development Report (EHDR) 2005 was published and tackled the problems that overcrowding has brought to the city: it cites that the disparity in resources, prospects and representation is a direct deterrent to national goal of development for Egypt (United Nations Development Programme [UNDP] "Choosing our future: Towards a New Social Contract", 5-6) Crowding in urban areas is a problem that all major cities are facing. Even developed countries also have to deal with issues of disproportion of population and industries. Efforts to balance these trends have come in either redevelopment of stagnating areas or through relocation efforts. The successes of these projects have been intermittent and have done little to stem rapid growth of urban populations. The stories of remote locations becoming ghost towns as residents move to the city is not fiction, it is a reality that aggravates economic and social problems of less developed regions. Urban Overcrowding From the perspective of computer programs that include crowds and other social behaviors associated with it, crowding is seen as something that is important in all growing cities and economies. In many cases, urban overcrowding can either be a 24-hour phenomenon to a city or only an effect of people coming to work in the cities where the human congestion eases as people return to their homes at the end of the day. According to Loscos and his associates, crowding creates a resource base that is essential for development but at the same time, one has to be very careful in encouraging population development because population grow in geometrically and once it finds its momentum, little can be done to control it excluding extraordinary measures without sacrificing growth. Hebding and Glick point out that crowding is though a strongly social behavior, factors that fuel it more powerfully are economic and political factors. People gravitate towards areas that give him best access to resources. A direct economic effect of these movement is on labor markets and even greater impact is made on developing economies were labor maybe more easier than al other economic resources (Bertola 3027-3028). Politics also tend to follow these developments. The greater the development, the greater is the need for administration. Wars have been fought to control cities independently of the countries they are situated in. Cairo historically was a key city in controlling the Nile and gaining access to the rest of Egypt. There is cyclical effect to these developments: population, commercial and industrial density develops economic and political centers while at the same time, the establishments of these centers attract further population multiplication. Population and the availability of labor, political and economic institutions are all key factors that are essential to development (Bergsten). The magnitude of these cities, whether newly developed or ancient ones like Cairo, can be measure by the extent of their population, economy and political significance. Therefore, overcrowding to a certain extent is an indication of a city's prosperity but at the same time, overcrowding creates an enormous pressure on city resources. A natural control or limitation of this phenomenon is opting for other cities, creation of new ones from leading municipalities or from scratch. However, given a country that has limited development or resources, this may not be an available option. It is in considering and analyzing these factors that the United Nations Development Programme for Cairo was formulated ("Egypt's National Development Plan 2002-2007"). Overcrowding of Cairo The stress of urban life is not a new concept for Cairo, indeed it seems to be an integral part of the city that has even made it an important model of study for crowd behavior studies (Evin). Cairo, situatued on both sides of the Nile, is a traditional hub for other cities that are traversed through the river. It serves both as gateway and hub for commerce and culture. When overcrowding occurs, it can be evident by a number of factors: scarcity of resources such as food, services, space and jobs; rise of human conflict; and deterioration of human development indicators. Scarcity. The most evident type of scarcity in Cairo has been regarding space. Figure 1 reflects that Cairo by 1998 has expanded its city limits to develop a concentration of population to Giza. It has also spread on the west bank of the Nile extending to the site of the national airport. From a visual of Figure 1 alone, it is evident the Cairo has not just doubled its size but also has become denser. Another factor that increases the problem of space in Cairo is its historical and cultural landmarks. The city and the area in its proximity have an abundance of sites of archeological, historical and cultural value. The site of the Pyramids of Giza (indicated in Figure 1) is now host to urbanized settings in part of the expansion from Cairo and in support of the archeological activities based in the area. But it is not just a question of the modern living together the ancient buildings of Egypt. Being amidst modernity is also damaging to the time worn artifacts and scholars fear that their decline is being aggravated by pollution and proximity to human activity. In August of this year, the 3,200 monument to King Ramses II was moved from home in Cairo as urban development claims its space. Figure 2 shows just how close urban development is being done in proximity to these ancient artifacts ("Cairo moves 3,200-year-old Pharaoh"). Though Egypt does not have a high national population growth rate, its existing unemployment rate is one that is growing critical. According to United Nations Development Programme, Egypt has to be able to sustain GDP growth of at least 6% per year and to generate around 800,000 jobs annually, a far cry from the 370,000 a year it creates in average ("Egypt's National Development Plan 2002-2007"). Added to this is the range of unemployment levels all over the governate of Cairo which has a wide range. A wide range of unemployment levels reflect an internal for redistribution of jobs and may at the same indicate considerable uneven development. This information is enumerated in Table 1: percentage of unemployment based on registered labor force ranges from 3.5% to a high as 11%. The sheer competition of so many people in one place with limited resources has also highlighted poverty in Cairo. This can in turn drive inflation levels, cost of living and stress of life living in the city. Access to services and goods can also be made difficult. Education is an agenda that Egypt is trying to address as a nation. In a city like Cairo, the problem of education seems to be developing as a cyclical problem. Limited institutions hamper the capacity to educate. Building new schools may not be a viable option, space and resources are limited. Without a strong educational program that can be accessed, labor markets can not improve its skills and this can in turn limit the capacity these labor markets afford new industries. An undeveloped labor market means low paying jobs thus limiting access to basic commodities. Also, this poverty increases and in turn limits developmental needs like education (Baitu). It is difficult enough to deal with transitioning form a modern urban setting, it even more difficult to transverse into a globalize urban life were competition is made even more difficult. Human Conflict. Concerns were raised regarding unruly Cairo crowds in October 2006. According to the report filed by BBC News Arab affairs correspondent Magdi Abdelhadi, reports of the incident of mobs accosting women were reported during the time following Eid al-Fitr and cites the opinion of journalist Nabeel Sharaf al-Deen that the events were "symptom of a deeper malaise in Egyptian society and warned that such incidents were the first stirrings of much bigger social unrest". Social stress is condition that has proved to incite violence, individual stress and social unrest. In situations where a person has to deal with the problems of overcrowding, social stress is inevitable (Hebding & Glick 378-425). Mustafa El-Menshawy says that even the simple task of taking the bus has proven to be a getting more stressful daily activity an average Cairo resident and this together with Cairo traffic, certainly can not be good for one's disposition. McCluskey sees overcrowding as having a direct relationship with urban unrest. This view has been also been supported by Bergsten who contends that development programs should also keep in mind the social health of their country. Human development indicators. Cairo's population, like the rest of the region, is one that is young and therefore the most in need of services to create skills and develop competencies. Cairo will have to deal with the attached issues of overcrowding that include human, the social and cultural development. Human development encompasses demographics, providing social services like education, health, communication and representation, increasing economic power, bridging of gender and class gaps and empowering the status of women. Economic and social structural reforms have helped improve human development indicators but considering the demographic characteristics of Cairo's young population, more jobs, classrooms and services will be needed. Egypt's compliance with IMF requirements has restored confidence in its investment market and has been successful in injecting new vigor to economies (UNCTAD "World Investment Report 2005", 35-37). An analysis of the concentration and prevalence of poverty shows that there are poorer in the northern regions of the country (UNDP "Egypt's National Development Plan 2002-2007"). Thus, though Cairo's human development index is not one that is for concern today, its sheer proximity to these segments, Cairo should anticipate that it will be subject to greater pressures as the city continues to swell. Eileen K. McCluskey quotes economists Edward L. Glaeser and Denise DiPasquale: "People with different ethnicities who live in close proximity to each other" she further quotes these two theorists in their inference that "perception is that the different group are violating social contracts." Considering this, one is presented with the idea that Cairo also has a need to focus on its cultural diversity not as a reason for unrest that have been seen in the past but see it as means to gain insight into the friction among the many groups that live in its borders. As shown by the BBC report of women being accosted in the streets, any situation that lessens that quality of life of an individual can cause social unrest (Abdelhadi). The state of individual development of people in Cairo will continually be challenged as the population explodes regardless whether this congestion of the populace is a constant or just part of their work stress. Figures documenting human conditions may not be conclusive to the well being of citizens. Table 3 shows relatively high indices for Cairo despite increasing incidence of social unrest, unemployment and inflation. Whether the table reflects a true measure of the human development in Cairo or not may be only relevant to administrators, but these ratings will be useless unless people are able grow in overcrowded Cairo (Antoniou). Cairo's Citizens and Overcrowding Without, a doubt, Cairo will continue to be the one of the most populous cities in the world. Its position as an economic and political center in Egypt and Africa will change very little (Raychaudhuri). It is actually difficult to think of Cairo without it being overcrowded: this has been the picture of Cairo since the dawn of Egypt, a bustling city of people, cultures and politics. Most of Cairo's citizens are so used to the situation of Cairo congestion that they have then it in stride. However, this apparent complacency of the citizenry should not lessen the need for aggressive and responsive city management (Evin). The incidence of unprovoked social disturbances should be taken as indication that people are being subject already to too much urban stress regardless of their apparent silence ("Urban overcrowding") Baitu points out that population stresses sure to be expected in developing countries and that these concentrations of population in metropolises are prevalent through the African region. However, he emphasizes the need for more equitable development programs so as not to acerbate the existing economic disparities. UNCTAD, in its World Investment Report in 2005 has specifically mentioned the need to measure and mitigate social impacts of development particularly in developing countries such as Egypt who have multiple urgent developmental agendas. Cairo citizens are without a doubt benefiting from the expanding city but the concern is whether they are not being stripped of their health, culture and history in the process. Overcrowding has propelled Cairo's local economy however, it can also drag the city to descent by creating too much pressure on the city's resources which are limited already (El-Nahhas). Conclusion Without a doubt, Cairo citizens will try its best to cope with the city's overcrowding. With little option to find as much work or livelihood in other cities, people will continually gravitate towards Cairo. The most effective way of dealing with the overcrowding of Cairo needs the support of the national government. Unless there are other options for livelihood for Egyptians and unless smaller cities are developed, people will still try to eek out their lives in cities like Cairo and Alexandria (Antoniou). Ervin cites that the urban growth of Cairo is one that indicates progress for the country but she also gives equal emphasis on the need to create the social supports that will grow to become essential as Cairo grows. Similarly, McCluskey has pointed out that urban unrest is something that has to be dealt with sensitivity but also with resolve. Development implies a comprehensive advancement of the city not just sectors or groups in it. Cairo's management of its population as included in Egypt's National Development Plan for 2002-2007 should be complimented with efforts to create a society that does not marginalize any sector so that unrest is avoided. Marginalization and suppression of its citizenry would not be a wise choice. At this moment, Cairo's greatest and most abundant asset is it citizens and its workforce. If social condition are ones that incite unrest, then this precious resource will be lost and the dream of revitalization can become more elusive. Works Cited Abdelhadi, Magdi. "Cairo street crowds target women". BBC News. 11 October 2006. 14 November 2006. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/5286288.stm Antoniou, Jim. "Cairo's Urban Growth and Its Impact on the Historic City". 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