Ukraine Prince Analysis - Essay Example

PART Why your initial research leads you to conclude about the possible outcomes of the Ukraine elections In fact Ukraine plays more and more important role on the post soviet area. It has a good GDP growth (which, unfortunately decreased after Orange Revolution), its economy has great variety of spheres, which are developing, perspective and can bring good incomes for investors. But Ukraine still can't be considered a reliable state, that's why risks here are too high. It is explained with political unsteadiness, which affects not only the citizens, but also businessmen, who potential are able and ready to invest money in Ukraine economy. In fact, the further situation in Ukraine depends on elections outcomes, after the 26th of March, when Ukrainian citizens elect new Parliament (Verhovna Rada) deputies, the deputies of local authorities, etc. How you think these outcomes might affect foreign investors The future direction of this young state developing will be defined after new Parliament majority forming and new Prime Minister nominating. It'll be a clear sign for investors for further actions. If new Parliament majority is pro-president with liberal Prime Minister (loyal to Ukraine President Victor Yushchenko, like Yuri Yekhanurov), then investors can definitely wait the implementation of declared reforms. If the new Prime Minister is Yulia Timoshenko (possible case), then investors must be more careful as Mrs. Timoshenko enjoys hand methods of economic regulation. At last if opposite parties form the majority, foreign investors can wait radical differences to the state-developing course, chosen by President. What propositions on regime change you would have put to your panel of 3 experts At first, it's necessary to progress liberty of speech, press etc (one of the great achievements of new authorities). Then Government should finally refuse from hand methods of economic regulation. Recently Ukraine got the free-market economy status; also the USA repealed Jackson-Venik amendment for Ukraine. Future government must use these privileges. Conducting free and fair tenders for enterprises privatising, equal tax policy etc. are obligatory conditions for regime change. PART 2. As you can see, we chose the next actors, which play the most important role during pre-election company. Who are they 1. "The party of regions" leaded by Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich, who was the main opponent of Victor Yushchenko during last president elections. This party has the highest popularity - from 22 to 27% according to different surveys. This group is well sponsored (Rinat Akhmetov, the richest businessman in Ukraine, is one of its leaders), and is the most serious opponent to pro-president forces. 2. "BYT" - Block of Yulia Timoshenko, the first Prime Minister after Orange Revolution. This ambitious lady was the wishes to become a powerful Prime Minister. She supports Mr. Yushchenko, but has some conflicts with his party "Our Ukraine" 3. "Our Ukraine" - the most reliable support for Mr. Yushchenko party, which nevertheless lost a significant electorate segment during the last year. 4. "The Socialistic Party of Ukraine" (SPU) headed by Olexandr Moroz, supposed to be included into pro-president majority, and tries to secure more vote than 4 years ago. 5. "The Communist Party of Ukraine" (CPU), headed by Petro Simonenko, is a firm opponent to present forces, but gradually loose electorate support. 6. Litvin's Peoples Block "We", headed by present Parliament Speaker Volodimir Litvin, can supplement either pro-president or opposite group of parties. They position themselves like the third (neutral) force and have not much support. 7. The Opposite Block "Not Yes", headed by the first Ukraine President Leonid Kravchuk, is firm opposite party, which has no developing program, but just is against "orange" forces. This group has a little support and has small chances to be represented in new Parliament. 8. One or even two parties can also secure more than 3% of votes. It can be either opposite parties (Natalia Vitrenko's Block) or pro-president (Vladimir Klitschko's Block or Peoples Block of Kostenko and Pliushch) but in any case their influence in future Parliament will be insignificant Due to these reasons experts gave such scores in the charts, and defined the parties' efficiency before elections. PART 3. In this research we analyzed possible outcomes of future Parliament elections. These elections will be more important than all previous. There are some reasons for this. During pre-president elections in 2004 parliament adopted important changes to Ukrainian Constitution, according to which after the elections Prime Minister will be elected in Parliament, but not appointed by President, like now. That's why party, who secure the majority of votes, will make demands during this process. Also the local authorities will get more wide latitude. In any case, these elections define the developing way for Ukraine for next 4 years. This method has some undoubted advantages. Firstly, of course, experts' opinion using. Experts' using approach gives us more objective score estimation. Secondly, 3 index kinds estimating for each party for sure make experts give scores after careful consideration, instead of one common index of popularity. This makes estimated scores more suspended. Speaking about disadvantages, it's necessary to emphasize the main, connected with experts' selection. Unfortunately, we've used only 3 experts' estimations, but even 10 experts can't provide 100% objectivity level. This depends mostly on sympathies to Ukraine changes after revolution. Western experts enjoy new democratic reforms, implemented by Mr. Yushchenko and his associates, instead of eastern (from CIS - Commonwealth of Independent States) specialists, who blame for each Ukraine authorities step. But, surely, there is a good deal of various surveys, conducted by different sociological services. We haven't met great problems with experts drawing up a list of actors as the main forces correlation is well known, experts were only to estimate some indexes: "Certainty" (firmness of orientation) , "Power" (the degree of real influence relative to other actors) and "Salience" (Importance the actor attaches to the outcome). Some problems were encountered during filling the last participant of our Prince Chart. Some experts consider it to be pro-president party, other - opposite, the third - neutral. We made a consensus and included a neutral party on the last position. Generally Prince Chart is an objective kind of analytic and forecast technique. Surely, a Prince Chart is a better method than just relying on public opinion polls to predict the outcome of the election, thanks to expert evaluation using and weighted average value calculating. Read More