Risk assessment - Assignment Example

RISK ASSESSMENT of Affiliation RISK ASSESSMENT As Roger M. Cooke may argue out, the concept of risk management traces its roots to the ancient Egypt. The Nile River could flood the nearby land for around thirty years in succession, which was then followed by a 2 year dry spell that resulted in the failure of all crops in the field. If only the Egyptians had knowledge of exactly when the Nile will fail to flood, then they would not have needed writing, calculations, surveying or geometry. In other words, early civilization basically was a product of the desire to manage risks (Cooke, 2009).

For ancient Egyptians, in addition to constructing large stores houses to store grain as a precaution to impending drought, their other method of risk assessment entailed chronological and detailed record keeping of different seasons. Modern times heralded a different form of risk assessment that is not only qualitative but also quantitative in nature. Throughout human history several techniques have been utilized in risk assessment. In this paper, however, focus or rather examples are on aerospace, and National Research Council.

In 1967, following the shuttle fire that killed three astronauts in the Apollo flight test, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which was by then a new form of quantitative risk assessment came into existence. Before the occurrence of the accident, NASA heavily relied on its excellent engineering capabilities for quality assurance and control. Despite the uncertainty with this form of risk assessment in the initial stages, it is currently heavily utilized in NASA to support safety at the design and operations phases.

The National Research Council has particularly been vocal in questioning the government’s modes of tackling various risks. The fundamental probabilistic risk assessment methods developed in the aerospace program in early 1960s found wide application in the consequence and uncertainly analysis of Nuclear Reactor of 1975 study. Furthermore, emergency management in United States of America, and to a larger extent the globe, has been enhanced by the ability to assess risks almost with precision.

Information from such assessment is what forms the basis of locating emergency management centers. For example, emergency operations are strategically located along the gulf coast of the United States because risk assessment indicates that this areas is prone to hurricanes (NATO, 2008). Risk assessment is advantageous as it enhances the ability to manage emergencies in the event of the occurrence of the risk. Risk is an undesirable occurrence that, if it were possible, no individual or organization would look forward to it.

However, due to its’ uncertainly and perhaps inevitability, it is crucial to carry out risk assessment as it forms the basis for emergency management. For instance, risk assessment enables the management team involved estimate the magnitude and frequency of the risk. As a result, they are in a better position to prepare, and consequently, tackle the risk in the event of its occurrence (Haddow, Bullock & Coppola, 2011). In spite of the above advantage, risk assessment could also be a costly exercise.

This is because organizations, for instance, are forced to come up with a special team or department to prepare for such eventualities. These assessments are mostly probabilistic in nature, thus implying that there is a chance of the risk never occurring. Essentially, risk assessments drives people into a frenzy of preparing to manage a risk that may never occur. This is costly in the long run. References Haddow, G. D., Bullock, J. A., & Coppola, D. P. (2011). Introduction to emergency management.

Burlington, MA: Butterworth Heinemann. Cooke, R. M. (2009). A Brief History of Quantitative Risk Assessment NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Risk Assessment as a Basis for Elaboration of Recommendations for Forecast and Prevention of Catastrophies, & Apostol, I. (2008). Risk assessment as a basis for the forecast and prevention of catastrophies. Amsterdam, Netherlands: IOS Press.