Scenario Planning for the Future of Energy - Essay Example

? 16 June Scenario Planning for the Future of Energy First Story: As a result of theworldwide debate about the global warming and its impacts upon the society, a revolution occurred all over the world in 2025 in which all countries mutually decided to replace cars with bicycles. Originally, cars driven by electricity and biofuels were proposed as a substitute to the oil driven car, though it required a lot of investment and results could not be equally achieved all over the world because of the scarcity of resources to produce electricity. After decades of thought and consideration, countries have mutually consented to get rid of cars altogether. Now, in 2030, roads are crowded with bicycles. People are generally happy to use bicycles because they have not only obviated the need to use oil, but has also rapidly decreased the number of road accidents. The bicycle-bicycle collision is far less as deadly and dangerous as a car-car collision used to be few years ago. Besides, regular peddling has been a good source of exercise and has helped people burn their calories. In the midst of Shanghai lives Chen with his family in a condominium. Today is Chen’s final exam, and he needs to get into the school within fifteen minutes. He lives one and a half miles away from the school. He catches his bicycle, but the tire is punctured. He can not wave to a taxi because there are no taxies, no bus, no car whatsoever! Mum and dad have gone to work over their respective bicycles. Chen has only two options to reach the school, either walk his way up to the school, or else, seek lift from somebody else. But most bicycles are overloaded because that is the only thing people have as a means of travel. Normally, if a person does not have a bicycle of his own, he/she has to suffer, though Chen is lucky enough to find a cyclist, Koto, with no one sitting on the back seat. Chen asks Koto the favor to drop him to school. Koto agrees to do the job provided that Chen purchases him a tin of cooking oil since he comes from a very poor family and can not afford to buy the cooking oil. Chen agrees and the two set off. Second Story: Saudi Arabia is suffering from a financial crisis as a result of her inability to meet the global demands of oil. Saudi Arabia’s predictions of her oil reserves have turned out to be overstatements which had no concern with reality. In reality, Saudi oil reserves had been depleting at a dangerous rate and much of the oil has been drawn out of the known reserves till 2025. For the last five years, Saudi Arabia has reduced the supply of oil and is now suffering from a financial crisis. Ted, a teenager, turns the TV on to hear the news. Newscaster: Saudi Arabia’s attitude is being criticized for the turmoil in oil supply. For the past twenty years, Saudi Ministers have been making unnecessarily optimistic statements about their ability to make uninterrupted and sustained supply of oil to the world for a long period of time. Saudi Ministers have always been reluctant to get their oil reserves audited nor have they ever revealed accurate information about the volume of oil reserves. Much of the disparity in the demand and supply of oil in the contemporary age is attributed to the non-serious and inconsiderate attitude and short-term vision of the oil producing companies in Saudi Arabia. Experts are of the view that had Saudi Arabia allowed the auditing of her oil reserves and generate correct information about the oil reserves, it would have been possible for the world to take precautionary measures in time. The economy of Saudi Arabia has declined as a result of the reduced oil supply. Third Story: The New York City in 2030 looks totally different from the way it looked in 2010. On the roof of every house, there is a solar panel that faces the sun and revolves according to it in order to keep its surface exposed to the sunlight throughout the day. On every garage, there is a car that is driven by biofuel or electricity. Every individual is lawfully required to grow a minimum of ten plants in the house and water them on daily basis. Use of wood in house is banned. As a result of the mutual effort of public, forests have grown denser. The leading oil companies in the first decade of the 21st century have undergone immense changes, ExxonMobil has been abolished on account of its unhealthy business practices and deleterious effects on the environment, whereas Chevron has become the biggest “supermajor” company. Big oil companies i.e. the oil companies owned by state have 100 per cent of the oil reserves of the world in their control. Also, the number of largest oil companies owned by state has risen from 15 out of 20 in the first decade of 21st century to 20 out of 20 in 2030. The oil traders have immensely expanded in cast with more pension funds, endowments, hedge funds and institutional money managers having made their way into the field. However, the use of energy in the poor countries has increased up to 50 per cent in the 24 years starting from 2006. Oil has continued to be the chief source of energy over the years as more than 30 per cent of the total energy in the world is still being supplied by oil alone in the poor countries of the world. Analysis: The third story is most likely to become true among the three stories discussed in this paper. A revolution of bicycles seems like a fake idea and is not likely to materialize because of a decrease in its efficiency and benefits as compared to the car. There is a debate about the validity of Saudi Arabia’s statements of her oil reserves, though many believe them to be true. Saudi Arabia is fully meeting the oil demand presently and is exploring more sites for oil exploration. It is hard to predict financial crisis in Saudi Arabia till 2030. However, rich countries would have adopted much greener way of living by 2030 as compared to the poor countries, so the third story seems valid. Read More