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The combaination between delphi and scenario methods in future studies - Literature review Example

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Delphi-based scenarios: quality and span of designs (Name) (University) (Course) (Tutor) (Date) Introduction The contemporary world is uncertain. The future is more uncertain than the present. Companies and other corporations have to accept this fact and are therefore engaged in strategic decision making that will help unravel the future…
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The combaination between delphi and scenario methods in future studies
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Download file to see previous pages In doing this therefore a variety of models are used. Two basic models are used on which this discussion is going to be based on: the Delphi technique and scenario planning. The Delphi technique and scenario planning The Delphi technique is a kind of survey that makes use of the intuitive knowledge of experts in a given field. This technique is therefore flexible and provides a wide range of both qualitative and quantitative results which are important for planning. The technique involves rounds of surveys in which experts are asked questions concerning a given topic. Their varied opinions are then analysed and extremes are generated. The experts with these extreme opinions are asked to explain the reasons as to why they settled for the opinions (Armstrong, 2001, pp. 127-129). The rounds continue in this manner until a consensus is achieved. Feedback is very important in the whole process which must take place at the end of each round. Scenario planning on the other hand has also received a lot of attention from scholars with very little consensus on the exact meaning of the term. Cutting across the major definitions of scholars it is possible to say that scenario planning is seen as a strategic management tool that is used to describe sets of future environmental conditions which are uncertain and upon which decisions have to be made to address them. However there is a strong agreement among scholars that scenario planning is not a prediction but rather a tool that makes visible the large scale forces that are usually uncertain due to the ever changing nature of the world so that a planner can recognize them and act on them on the verge that they do happen (Lindgren & Bandhold, 2003). Combining the Delphi technique and Scenario planning It is of great importance that before combining the techniques a thorough understanding of the various design approaches is made of both techniques to find out how the Delphi technique can fit into the approach used by the scenario planning method. The scenario planning method has various approaches and this is because of the various schools of thought that are in existence. The technique actually involves a number of approaches each with stages that range between six and ten. There are three approaches that have been used widely and these are: the intuitive logic, trend impact and cross impact approaches. However later on, the last two approaches were combined by Bradfield et. al (2005) into one method called the probalistic approach and introduced the la prospective school as the third school in scenario planning (Bradfield, 2005, pp. 795-812). A closer examination of these approaches reveals they have varied stages that could be seen to serve the various interests of the authors with very little consensus on what should be the common approach. Each of these approaches is seen to work in the same manner with the other though there exist slight variations. Nowack, Endrikat & Guenther (2011: 1606) in their research identify one generic approach that cuts across all the three schools and which was built on the generic foresight approach proposed by Bishop et. al. The approach is divided into six stages for it to be complete and includes two main phases of scenario planning which are: scenario development and scenario transfer. In the first phase the planner sees various states of the future while in ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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