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Operations, Logistics and Supply Chain Management - Essay Example

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Qualitative Forecasting Methods
Qualitative forecasting methods are those that allow for non-statistical review of a quality initiative, a group process that provides for intuition, experiences, emotions, or values to make determinations. …
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Operations, Logistics and Supply Chain Management
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"Operations, Logistics and Supply Chain Management"

Download file to see previous pages A series of rounds are scheduled in which managers or other group experts answer a preliminary questionnaire. In later rounds of discussion and analysis, a group facilitator is selected to summarize the questionnaire data, allowing peers to make adjustments to their forecasts based on the information provided (Rowe and Wright, 1999). Through various rounds, answers become more correlated and streamlined as responses become congruent, ultimately leading to an established criterion and the mean totals of responses become the norm for quality initiatives or problem solutions. The advantage of this method is that having multiple members with various experiences working together provides for a broader scope of ideas and forecasts than through individual analysis. A disadvantage of this method is that members of the group can be misinformed which creates uncertainty and brings questions to reliability of responses.
The time series approach is also used, which relies on historical forecasting data to make current determinations. The disadvantage in this case is that current market conditions may be radically different than previous quarters or years. The advantage of this approach is that it is founded on actual data that provides for rational predictions. A final method is market research. This could involve questionnaires or interviews with customers to determine attitudes in a key market segment. The disadvantage of this method is bias introduction from consumers. An advantage is that it provides real sentiment about the brand or product features that can assist in predicting competitive advantage or output demand. A Bad Design Beware of Scalding Splash-Back! Slow-brewed tea and coffee lovers beware! This product is hard to get a handle on. Twist and shout, it’s as easy as a flick of the wrist. When attempting to pour oneself a delicious cup of their favorite hot beverage, the angle of descent is highly illogical. It is reasonably rational to assume that one would pour a liquid away from themselves to avoid burns, though such self-protectionism might be a tall order with this particular decanter. This product would require some form of research and development and also a molding system to ensure quality and also to establish the most effective production process. Was the company recruiting the Mad Hatter, Alice and the White Rabbit when determining the most practical design for effective consumer utilization of this revolutionary and innovative decanter? Um, clean cup, clean cup! Move down. This product truly misses the mark in satisfying quality control and effective market consideration. This would be a more effective product if the potential liabilities to consumer safety had been considered; a risk management model that is concerned with potential litigation for neglect in design. It is illogical for a company that produces a product like this to believe that this design would fulfill customer needs and provide the necessary benefit to guarantee sales. Most people in society that drink tea and coffee rely on automatic machines and not decanters, thus this market is already limited and a niche market to begin with. Such a bad design builds a poor reputation on the market and, when the business discovers this is the reason for its diminished sales volumes, will likely add considerable costs to the production process to adjust assembly and molding for the pot. Controlling Public School Output Quality The first step in controlling quality would be to conduct a large scale qualitative research study using a very large randomized sample of graduates from various public schools. Questionnaires and interviews should be developed asking questions about perceptions of instructor quality, ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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