What Determines the Duration of War - Essay Example

Quantitative al affiliation Article The purpose of the article is to explore how decision makers of DALR SMOs come to spatial decisions regarding the Amazon land. This is done by measuring variables that have been stated are vital in determining which landholdings are subjected to the contentious processes in the process of contentious land change. A series of regression models such as logistic regression model, specifically the strategic model used to find out the importance of the SMOs desires for successful expropriation and media attention, agronomic level to determine the usefulness of social movement members and their desires for landholding that is agriculturally viable. Hypothesis “The first hypothesis stated that increased statements by stakeholders increase the odds that the landholding will be occupied.” The social movement organizations (SMOs) are empowered dispossessed rural producers who challenge the creation of land. In their view, small farmers will be self sufficient and market oriented. The land conflict has increased significantly in the DALR polygon, ranging from declarations of wrongdoing to outright armed battle. DALR SMOs use decision making process that maximizes the strategic impact of their occupation. “The second hypothesis stated that the proximity to town decreases the odds of occupation” The strategic needs of SMOs and the agronomic needs of the members are more likely to be met if the occupations of the landholdings are closer to town due to media attention and market access in the pre-1984. In the time period considered in the paper, the SMOs target properties that are further away since they are likely to face severe resistance. “The third hypothesis stated that the more forest on a landholding significantly increases the risk of occupation.” The proportion of the forest cover increases the odds of occupation and properties with major roads intersecting them are more likely to be occupied. Higher forest proportion significantly increase the risk of occupation, with 10% more average forest cover on a property nearly doubling its risk of occupation. “The fourth hypothesis states that large landholding sizes increase the hazard of occupation” The DALR SMOs fight against large, unproductive latifundia. The organizations strategically select property and raises concern that further development could lead to increased violent conflict. Results The results from the logistic regression model, unveil the decision-making tactics DALR SMOs employ in targeting landholdings for occupation. Understanding the characteristics that lead DALR SMO activity could be helpful in averting conflict through judicial straining orders, preemptive negotiation and suggestions of alternative locations for agrarian reform settlement formation which are not based solely on agronomic factors. The DALR SMOs are therefore more likely to occupy landholdings with certain characteristics such as forest cover, statement of the stakeholder, size of landholding and proximity to town. The results indicate that characteristics of the land such as forest cover are one of the most significant characteristics. Figure 1 shows the established frontlines in the Amazon Land War throughout the vast basin especially in the Southeastern part of the State of Para referred to as “Arc of deforestation” which is the core of the paper analysis. Some measurements on productivity should therefore be redefined legally. Spatial decision making process can significantly increase the likelihood of land change. These characteristics support the idea that the DALR SMOs employ a decision- making process that maximizes the strategic impact of their occupation. Article 2 Purpose The analysis of this paper is to highlight the similarity between animal contests and interstate wars. This was achieved by outlining the theory of information used during animal contests. A statistical framework that has been used to distinguish between two strategies that individuals use whether to persist or quit was described. The war of attrition models, the asymmetrical war of attrition, energy war of attrition and the cumulative assessment model were used in the analysis. This framework was applied to the analysis of interstate wars. Hypothesis Two major hypothesis were stated in the paper, and other hypothesis derived from them. i) “Which measures of power influence the chances of victory?” “The first hypothesis stated that the chance of winning increased with increase in the size of the military” Correlation of power in animal contests was valid on the basis that on average, the stronger side is more likely to be greater in CINC index. Extra individuals are held until needed then the RHP advantage increases linearly with the disparity in numbers. An opponent can be willing to give up if they are reluctant to bear costs of increasing the size of the military. “The second hypothesis stated that the duration of the war increase with the relative difference in energy consumption.” Glucose, glycogen and fat reserves provide an advantage of Resource Holding Power. The strength of a military is dependent on the primary energy consumption. “The third hypothesis stated that the total urban population and urban population increased the winning chances” An increased number in the total population is likely to affect size of the military. The RHP advantage for the larger group may be additive and provide a numerical advantage depending on the group coordination. The total population serves as an index of the costs that the state has accepted revealing the commitment to persistence of that state. ii) “ What determines the duration?” “The fourth hypothesis stated that war duration increased with increase in size of the winner’s military.” Losers can compare their own power with the opponents or more directly when they reach a cost threshold that they are unable to sustain. There is an affirmative association between duration and the losers RHP and a weaker positive association with winner RHP. “The fifth hypothesis stated that war duration increased with the total population of the winning side.” The total population has a positive correlation with the outcome of a war. The strongest driver of war duration was the power of the winner which was dependent on the total population of the winning side which increased the strength of the winner. Results The models based on assumptions of mutual and self assessment aid in prediction of different patterns of escalations and how to relate to the rate of cost inherent in engaging in a contest. To explain the persistence of war, mutual assessment was a process next to mutual assessment seems an implicit assumption of both bargaining and attrition models. In interstate warfare there are similar measures to animals such as population size, military expenditure, size of the military, energy consumption and production of iron and steel. The two steps applicable to analysis of animal contents that is applicable to interstate warfare. First, one allows the researcher to variables that may contribute to RHP and success of the contest while the second one rules out mutual assessment if the RHP of both winners and losers show positive associations with the duration of the contests. Figure 1 shows the effect of relative difference in the PEC, military personnel, TPOP, UPOP and CINC which correlate power on the chance of victory for the focal side. The results show similarity between decision making during animals contest and interstate wars. This framework can be used to provide insight about interstate warfare. References Aldrich, S. P., (2014). Decision-making and the environment in the Amazon Land War. Journal of Land Use Science. 1-17 Briffa, Mark. (2014). What Determines the Duration of War? Insights from Assessment Strategies in Animal Contests. PLOS ONE, 9 (9), 1-8 Read More