Great Caution with Interpreting Crime Data - Essay Example

Why Great Caution Should Be Used When Interpreting Crime Data The application and interpretation of statistics relevant to crime analysis require knowledge (Maguire, 2007). This will require understanding of the data system that will make it easy to understand crime and law enforcement statistics. The application and interpretation of statistics accurately and effectively rely on the knowledge of what the data describe and does not describe. Maguire (2007) asserts that there are available crime data require an in-depth analysis, which includes arrests, crime and calls for service among others. The following paper discusses the reasons why great concern should be taken when interpreting crime data. In order to understand the value and usefulness of crime statistics, it is necessary to understand the bounds and conventions of statistics of the police crime (Maguire, 2007). It is also important to understand the different types of external variables which may affect the police crime statistics (Frank et al, 2012). They include the procedures used by the police in the collation and compilation of crime statistics as explained by Maguire (2007). It also includes the definition and rules followed in the production of crime statistics and the factors which may have impacts on the crime statistics particularly the environmental and social factors (Schupp & Rivera, 2010). Crime statistics are derived from the data obtained from the crime reports (Maguire, 2007). The population data is used to calculate the number of victims and offenders by age and sex per given number of people. Maguire (2007) explains that the number of offenses occurring within a given area for a specific period of time is referred to as the number of offenses. It is difficult to gauge the true level of crime using crime numbers because areas with larger populations will have higher numbers of crimes as compared to smaller population areas (Maguire, 2007). The calculation of rate crime helps in the comparison of crimes in different geographical regions (Frank et al, 2012). When the data are interpreted with great concern, the police will be able to have information relevant in combating crime. Maguire (2007) confirms that when using either numbers or rates in measuring crime in a specific area or different ones, cautioned must be taken. Frank et al (2012) assert that rates are mainly sensitive to a small population. Numbers and rates of reported offenses should be presented together giving a clear and balanced picture of crime level (Van & Tseloni, 2012). Caution should also be taken when interpreting percentage changes (Maguire, 2007). Offenses of smaller numbers can result in a higher percentage change (Schupp & Rivera, 2010). Crime rates comparisons over areas which are different should be interpreted with great caution as explained by Maguire (2007). This is mainly due to the factors which differ among the communities. Schupp and Rivera (2010) assert that crime levels in any community is mainly affected by the composition and number of its population. This difference is particularly brought by age, employment, sex and ethnicity (Frank et al, 2012). Statistics of crime for an offense of low volume tend to fluctuate on an annual basis both randomly and dramatically (Maguire, 2007). Identification of patterns and trends in the levels of offenses becomes difficult. Frank et al (2012) confirm that caution must therefore be taken when approaching offenses of low volume categories when looking at trends. Caution is also taken during comparisons across geographical areas in order to avoid a false impression (Schupp & Rivera, 2010). Maguire (2007) explains that one of the primary types of data used in crime analysis is known as crime data. Misinterpretation or misuse of statistics may be caused by various issues about crime data (Frank et al, 2012). Police crime data do not always represent all the crimes that occur in a society (Van & Tseloni, 2012). Reports have named this type of data as “crimes known to the police” or “reported crimes”. This distinction is important for anyone trying to interpret the problems of crimes based on the police data. The police data could be portraying a different picture which is bias (Schupp & Rivera, 2010). Schupp and Rivera (2010) explain that the police numbers could be changed in a different way since we do not know the exact values reported. Rape cases may be reported as rising or falling and even though the police reports may have increased and decrease, the values may be changing in a different way (Van & Tseloni, 2012). This has also been seen in crime cases such as drug crimes, domestic violence, vehicle theft and murder cases (Maguire, 2007). Misinterpretation of these crime offenses will give a false impression of the crime level leading to rise in criminal activities (Frank et al, 2012). The data on crime that is captured by agencies of the police is dynamic and not static (Maguire, 2007). The information is adapted every moment new information comes in. A crime that occurred two days can be reported to an officer who then takes a day or more to complete the report. A suspect may be arrested by the officer and decide to clear the case. The data in this case continue changing and a report that includes the case could change (Frank et al, 2012). Due to the constant changes and updates, the data should therefore be treated with greater concern to avoid misinterpretation of information even leaving out some information (Maguire, 2007). The constant changes made in crime incidents create an issue for analysis. Real time data is one of the issues (Maguire, 2007). Emphasis is often made on the performance of statistic on the most recent data which could be an hour ago (Frank et al, 2012). This data is likely to change after the initial report is released due to additional information which could result from errors in the original, report, information from investigation among others (Maguire, 2007). The likelihood of data being changed substantially after a certain amount of time is significantly lower. Due to the fact that there is no research in this area, the analyst must have a greater concern on the interpretation including educated guess about when the likelihood for further changes to the data is low (Maguire, 2007). It is also important that the use of “real time data” should be conducted in a more cautious manner with a view of avoiding the loss of some information (Schupp & Rivera, 2010). Maguire (2007) explains that the crime data that are recorded by the police always have two sets of date and great caution should be taken when interpreting the information. The first set of date is the date when the report of the crime was written and sometime the exact time is included though it’s not essential (Schupp & Rivera, 2010). The second set of date is the date and time the crime took place. Both dates are used because the date the crime occurred is not the same with the date it was reported (Maguire, 2007). Frank et al (2012) assert that the two dates should therefore be interpreted with great caution in order to base the judgement of the suspect on the evidence. Crime can be prevented mainly through an efficient system of collection, analysis and interpretation of information on crime and criminal justice (Maguire, 2007). Emphasis has been put on the issues of measurement of crime. Maguire (2007) asserts that developed countries have limited quantitative information on crime and criminal justice. The international comparable statistics is also limited (Schupp & Rivera, 2010). Confusion may arise because of the sources which are different thus providing slightly different information (Frank et al, 2012). When interpreting the crime information caution must therefore be taken to prevent confusion that may arise due to different information provided by different sources (Maguire, 2007). A good interpretation of community crime statistics can be of good importance when identifying where to vacate to or from (Schupp & Rivera, 2010). Statistics of crime can reveal a lot of information about the community as far as security is concerned (Maguire, 2007). Therefore, few different variables should be kept in mind when interpreting that data. If an area has a higher crime rate, it does not necessarily mean the place is less safe to live (Frank et al, 2012). An area with low crime rate may be even more dangerous for an individual who carry out various lifestyles or activities (Maguire, 2007). Area populations may give variation in community crime statistics (Van & Tseloni, 2012). Large populations are likely to have more crime due to the large number of people. In a large area with low crime rate, the possibility is that crime is not always reported (Maguire, 2007). Therefore, when interpreting crime great caution should be used to avoid false impression of the crime level. The available data on the crime level of a given community should be interpreted including the information of the community population (Maguire, 2007). Variation in community statistics is also caused by variation in the crime reports. Depending on the agency reporting the crime, the criminal activities may be categorized between violent crimes, felonies among others. Maguire (2007) confirms that an area experiencing higher percentages of shoplifting may or may not be differentiated from one that experiences high cases of assault, rape and even homicide. The reporting agencies provide information on how their data were gathered (Maguire, 2007). When data are interpreted with great concern, the methods used by different reporting agencies in data collection will help in the clarification of how much the indicated numbers may affect an individual or the whole community (Frank et al, 2012). The variation in the international crime rate has helped to support or rule out the crime theories. Data collection on the crime has recently improved but caution must be taken when interpreting the data due to variation in the quality of data (Maguire, 2007). The United States has high rates of vehicle theft, burglary, burglary and some petty crime issues as compared to many nations (Frank et al, 2012). There is also a high rate of violence in the United States as compared to other Western nations. It is therefore necessary to interpret the crime data information with greater concern (Maguire, 2007). This will mainly avoid the perceptions that there is similarity in the level of crime within the global perspectives in respect to a particular crime (Schupp & Rivera, 2010). In conclusion, there is a need to enhance quality besides availability of statistics or data related to crime and criminal justice at all levels including local, national and even international levels. The institutional capacity in conducting victimization surveys should be built. The crime reporting agencies should not be biased in the reports due to corruption issues. The criminal case reported should be updated every moment investigations are done and more information is obtained. The description of crime and criminals varies depending on the sources of information, type of crime committed, characteristics of the criminal and the method used in analyzing the data. Due to the difference in variation of crime, concern must be taken when interpreting the data. This will enable understanding of the crime level in a given area or community hence taking appropriate measures. List of References Frank, R., Brantingham, P. L., & Farrell, G. (2012) “Estimating the True Rate of Repeat Victimization from Police Recorded Crime Data: A Study of Burglary in Metro Vancouver”, Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice/La Revue canadienne de criminologie et de justice pénale, 1-14. Maguire, M. (2007) “Crime data and statistics”, The oxford handbook of criminology, 4, 241-301. Schupp, P., & Rivera, C. (2010) “Identifying Imprisonment Patterns and Their Relation to Crime Among New York Counties 1990-2000 An Exploratory Application of Trajectory Modelling”, Criminal Justice Policy Review, 21(1), 50-75. Van Dijk, J., & Tseloni, A. (2012) “Global Overview: International Trends in Victimization and Recorded Crime” The International Crime Drop: New Directions in Research, 11. Read More