Terrorism in America: Identifying Patterns of the Activity - Research Paper Example

?Running head: TERRORISM IN AMERICA Terrorism in America: Identifying Patterns of Activity Spatial and temporal analysis ofthe pre-attack period activities in previous terrorist cases may show existing patterns which potentially offer particularly insightful information to law enforcers about terrorism ultimately resulting in interdiction. The ATS is a useful source of information on the previous cases of terrorism that can be used to analyze spatial and temporal characteristics of terrorism cases. A point-pattern research design is adopted for this research, involving use of quadrant grids to study the locations and terrorists incidents/activities before they carry out an attack or before they are intercepted. A sample size of 60 will be selected from the entire population of terrorism cases in the ATS database. Through the use of point-pattern research design and expedient data collection and analysis, reliable and valid results can be obtained with the only weaknesses being the lack of randomness in the empirical study and limited coverage of the various types of terrorism acts that exist. This is however a good study that may help the concerned authorities in dealing with environmental and international terrorism investigations before the planned act materializes. Introduction The fear of a terrorist attack is something that looms in the back of the minds of majority of people living in the United States, and although recent developments involving captures and killing of major terrorists e.g. Osama bin Laden have served to redeem the confidence of Americans on the war on terror, terrorism is still a major concern. According to Rasmusen Reports (2011) in a period where Americans have some of the highest approval levels on the war on terror in years, statistics still indicate that only less than half of the citizens feel that the United States is safer (48%), while a whopping 31% are not convinced with 21% being undecided. There are several terrorist groups in America, of different types, sizes, mechanisms and ideologies; identification of common patterns in operations especially pre-attack activities could go a great way in helping the concerned authorities in pre-empting attacks, thus reinforcing counterterrorism efforts and ultimately restoring public confidence. The hypothesis for this particular study is that a common pattern can be identified according to type of terrorism, thus presenting opportunities for interdiction by authorities. This requires a wide analysis of the data available on terrorism using several variables since terrorism is quite multi-faceted, after which patterns can be identified and a conclusion reached on whether the information generated can be helpful in counterterrorism efforts. Literature review Whereas a great deal of work has been done on criminology as a whole, empirical research on terrorism has not been quite profound, especially when narrowed down to the pre-attack activities of terrorists. However, there are several researchers who have written material that relates to pre-empting terrorist strikes. To begin with, previous work indicates that criminals undertake either criminal or non-criminal activities in preparation of their planned crime. This involves actions like purchase or pilferage of explosives, identity falsification, counterfeiting, making bombs and suspect monetary transactions. It has also been shown that such activities are in most cases committed within a short distance from the suspects’ residences or the groups’ bases (Reppeto, 1974). This study is particularly important since it indicates that preparation is common and localized near the suspects’ bases, hence pointing to spatial aspects that can be studied. Brown et al. (2004) studied strategies for spatial forecast for terrorism attacks in urban areas and reckon that these are especially important in combating terrorism since they allow early prevention and detection. They used a combination/fusion of spatial techniques and logistic regression modeling to achieve better forecast of criminal behavior. This design was particularly better than kernel grid techniques since it achieved larger combinations of spatial forecasting methods. The weakness of the method is the small number of case studies it was applied upon. The focus on spatial forecasting of terrorist behavior is what is attractive in this study. Berrebi and Lakdawalla (2006) analyzed the risk of terrorism with time and space and came up with very interesting findings. The two utilized a geo-coded database of attacks on Israel since the formation of the nation they observed that there were both spatial and temporal determinants of the risk of terrorism; where they are observed to consider the costs and benefits of an attack. Terrorist attacks are more likely to be targeted to areas which are closer to the bases of the terrorists. The periods between attacks were also studied in a bid to determine the risks of a hit. The main strength of the study design was the large sample size, while its weakness was the lack of details on the exact pre-attack incidents. This study’s importance is in its focus on spatial and temporal study from a geo-coded database. Smith et al. (2008) set out to determine studied geospatial methods to try and identify routinized behavior of terrorists when preparing for an attack. Terrorism, they observed, involves considerable actions of preparation and ancillary activities that are criminal in nature. Their work involved determination of geospatial patterns in terrorist activities that they termed as pre-incident indicators. Their design was based on analysis of variables from several databases to determine whether patterns did exist. The strength of this study design lies in the variety of cases studied as they are from different databases. Its weakness however is the fact that of the 58 samples used, not all provided all the geospatial details that were required for extensive analysis, hence minimizing the effect of sample size on validity. The work of Smith et al is particularly important since it performed a lot of ground breaking on the geospatial nature of terrorism. Research Design This study will be centered on analyzing terrorism data especially on international and environmental data where the literature review indicates that patterns are likely to exist. The data will be drawn from the publicly available and single-most biggest source of information of terrorism acts in America for the last 20 years; American Terrorism Study (ATS). It will mainly focus on the geographical area of operation (spatial distances and area of reach) and temporal operations (scheduled terrorism activities before acts of terror). A point pattern analysis will be used to determine the spatial aspect of the study in terms of the pre-attack incidents carried out by terrorists; that is superimposition of a quadrat grid on the location of the terrorist group and studying the events distribution to determine the area of influence of the terrorists (Gattrell et al., 1996). This will be important in determining the proximity of possible targets to the terrorists’ location. The temporal aspect will be undertaken through analysis of the timeline of activities of the selected cases and establishing whether common patterns are followed. This study design is particularly useful since it determines the localization or lack of it of terrorists groups, and the entirety of pre-planning period both of which establish patterns that can be useful to law enforcement authorities. Sampling The ATS is a database that contains variables for most of the cases that the FBI has over the last nearly quarter century including information on bases and targets of over 700 indicted terrorists from nearly 70 terrorist groups. The population in this case is the entire list of case entries in the ATS database, and this study will focus on a sample size of 60 cases, of which 30 will be environmental and 30 international. The basis for selection is the amount of information that is available in a given case as deemed useful to the study. Data Collection The central basis of data collection for this study is an existing source of information on terrorist cases; ATS. From this, specific criminal cases will be identified. Data collection will be centered on case studies, from which data on the people involved, terrorist group affiliations, and number and specific pre-attack incidents will be collected and tabulated. Data on terrorist residence, target address and pre-attack incident sites will be used to determine distances of operation and thus spatial aspects, while data on specific dates of formation of cells, meetings, recruitment, pre-attack incidents will give the timeline terrorist activities which will give the temporal aspects of the study. Thus in summary, data collection will be in two broad categories; locations and pre-attack incidents/activities whether criminal or not. Data analysis will then be conducted first after entering the collected and grouped data into a relational website, and then utilizing statistical packages such as spatial/coordinate packages and MATLAB, and Google Earth. Research Considerations The research design selected for use in this study; point pattern analysis enables for the expedient determination of areas of operation and influence for case studies before the main attack was carried out or prevented, hence will give reliable insight on localization of investigations and possible attack targets. The temporal analysis will be able to establish whether there is a common time frame and schedule of activities in terrorist cases that will aid investigations to think a step ahead. The source of data and data analysis will ensure that the results of this study are valid and reliable. The main weakness of the study design is the lack of randomness as cases which fulfill details of spatial and temporal characteristics are the only ones selected. This, alongside the fact that the study only focuses on environmental and international terrorism leaves a lot of other potential terrorist crimes not catered for, especially given the fact that terrorism is particularly amorphous in nature. Conclusion Terrorism is a major concern in America as evidenced by numerous polls conducted on the public. One of the strategies that can be integrated in counterterrorism efforts is analyzing the pre-attack activities in terms of time schedule, reach and incidents, thus a possibility of preempting attacks. There is scarce empirical data on the spatial and temporal aspects of terrorism, although a few researchers have made notable efforts on the subject. Through use of a point-pattern analysis method, data in the ATS database can be used to gain possibly special insights into the spatial and temporal activities of terrorists before they carry out an attack. The suggested study design and proposed methods of data collection and analysis make for valid and reliable results, and the main weaknesses in this study is the fact that it does not address the extensively amorphous and variable nature of terrorism crimes. The results could however be quite applicable to environmental and international terrorism cases. References Berrebi, C., & Lakdawalla, D. (2006). How does terrorist risk vary across space and time? An analysis based on the Israeli experience. Brown, D., Dalton, J., & Hoyle, H. (2004). Spatial forecast methods for terrorist events in urban environments. University of Virginia. Retrieved September 5, 2011 from http://sisla06.samsi.info/ndhs/ad/Papers/Brown_Dalton_Hoyle_Spatial_Forecast_Terrorist_Events.pdf Gatrell, A. C. (1996). Spatial point pattern analysis and its application in geographical epidemiology. North West Regional Research Laboratory. Retrieved September 5, 2011 from http://www.dpi.inpe.br/cursos/ser301/referencias/gattrel_paper.pdf Rasmusen Reports, (2011). War on terror. Retrieved September 5, 2011 from http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/war_on_terror_update Reppetto, T. A. (1974). Residential crime. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Ballinger Publishing. Smith, B. L., et al. (2008). Geospatial analysis of terrorist activities. Terrorism Research Center. University of Arkansas. Retrieved September 5, 2011 from https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/222909.pdf Read More