Intelligence Anthology Analysis - Essay Example

Due Intelligence and Intelligence Analysis The global systems operate in different but unique ways, where the different roles played by every single system works to balance the excesses of the other towards creating a suitable environment for purposes of continuity. Notwithstanding the foregoing, errors occur, occasionally extending the familiar to the unfamiliar grounds with crises that are sometimes beyond human imagination; natural so to say. Like other systems alluded to above, intelligence and its subsequent function in analysis serves towards that very important purpose of creating a better world, complementing each other to guard against the excesses that both extremes may exert in order to get the desired results. Intelligence and Analysis are, thus, horses of different colors that serve in a symbiotic relationship to broaden the meaning and functionality of ideas that so important to every nation the world over. This paper endeavors to dig deep into this very important relationship, explaining the dynamics involved in creating suitable solutions adopted in policy making, how analysis infiltrates intelligence reports as a corrective agent, the effect of analysis in driving home accuracy levels in intelligence reports, and the very impact of intelligent analysis in policy legislation successes and/or failure. In their piece titled “Intelligence: The Secret World of Spies: An Anthology,” Johnson and Wirtz defines Intelligence Cycle as “the process by which information is gathered, analyzed, and converted into usable intelligence data to affect policy changes” (5). Intelligence Cycle, therefore, runs through several processing processes that incorporate planning, data collection, analysis and subsequent breakdown, and lastly, the production and dissemination of information into usable forms or rather to be acted upon. Noteworthy, Intelligence Cycles, as the two scholars argues, is fitted with analytical mechanics right from the initiation processes of pooling/assemblage of information to the presentation of final reports for policymaking; a clear indication of the complementarity functioning of Intelligence cycle and the analysis cycle tasks. The accuracy of intelligence reports always serves as a critical element to inform whether such should be acted upon or not right from the beginning. Accordingly, it takes critical analysis to collect data, visual or otherwise, by intelligence officers, translate those that so requires, in order to tighten any loose ends and/or provide accurate report/description of a case under investigation. In essence, Intelligence reports destined for policy legislation goes through a number of rigorous analytical and fusion processes, where the accuracy of the information at hand is tested in all fronts for absolute certainty of facts. Intelligence analysis, thus, connects the collected data with each other, giving prescription by estimation if the current situation under investigation needs urgent or future intervention; a difficult prescription especially when an Intelligence Report is full of unclear information. Johnson and Wirtz further notes that analysis of intelligence reports does not take place in a vacuum, for intelligence analysis background, knowledge about culture and a host of elements, all come into the foray to unravel the mystery lines surrounding situations under study; that is, whether the an intelligence information is just informational or a serious warning. A good example where analysis background, cultural history and other factors just mentioned above converged to determine the usability of intelligence data over and above a circumstantial case was the issue of American hostages in Egypt October 2011. Given that intelligence analysts had very little information concerning the historical background of the country in this particular case, they embarked on serious studies on the history and culture of Egypt to unravel the reasons why the released hostage had a high level of arsenic in his body rather than give a rushed misguided, judgment that would have led to ill-advised policy legislation. It is worth mentioning that time, lack of vital information as well as the appearance of new crises all work to impede the accuracy and efficiency of Intelligence and Analysis processes in the Intelligence Cycle. To be certain, the appearance of new crises and/or information often shifts focus of the HUMINT officers regardless of the time period that has elapsed investigating a particular case. Inadequacy of Intelligence about certain cases, in particular, limits/impacts hugely on immediate analysis of reports that require immediate submission for immediate action. Such was the case of information provided about an armed group in Pakistan, where the Intelligence officers wrongly linked certain groups to the unwanted terrorist networks. Based on the cultural background, however, thorough analysis was able to deconstruct the above information which basically linked traditional wedding parties where shooting guns in the air is but a way of celebrating. Studying situations by way of incorporative analysis, bringing on board the different factors [such as the experiences and knowledge analysis] that affect such situations, is important not only in predicting future crises and diagnosing the harmful nature of current events, but also in gathering information worthy of such a task. Inefficiency of report analysis has long been known to be a factor leading to Intelligence failures. Indeed, analysis failure in understanding what the intelligence question exactly entails with regards to knowledge, experience, source material, in addition to failure to rest, rushed judgment biases among other factors, all boils down to deficient/starved analysis, which can lead to the loss of substance to the very vital information gathered over a very long period of time. A clear example that readily can to mind was the failure of report analysis of the Indian nuclear tests of 1974 and 1998. In both cases, massively deficient Intelligence and the subsequent analysis in terms of vital information found wide approval, leading to policymaking failures that greatly affected the interests of the state and the larger public. The failure of in policy is thus a failure emanating right from the Intelligence gathered finding its way to influence analysis. In the preliminary stages of the Intelligence cycle, specifically during planning, the policymakers are afforded the chance to decide which part of the Intelligence agencies are supposed to work on specific cases. Intelligence officers, thus, investigate in areas assigned to them by the policymakers. Irrespective of the workload involved, the intelligence agencies are obligated to conduct thorough investigation and analysis, connecting the missing links with available data gathered in order to create efficient reports that would help inform proper policymaking. In other words, the Intelligence analysis mechanism has a duty to break complex dilemmas to simpler pieces and provide alternative hypothesis to the policymakers in order to achieve the desired decisions that are in the interest of the public. In a sense, the Intelligence agencies are but like soldiers in a chessboard who relinquish to score to the policymakers, who are considered to be the main players with the power to move pieces of legislation based on what they think is right. They [the policymakers] can, therefore, decide to either accept intelligence reports or reject them on the basis of their analysis of situations at hand; at times becoming the obstacles preventing intelligence report from reaching certain crucial analytical and fusion process. A rejection of intelligence reports by the policymakers, in its broadest sense, signifies a non-convincing report, which in effect, re-commissions a new Intelligence cycle with much more magnified investigations that asks and answers new questions. As allude to above, the intelligence officers/agencies complement rather than compete against each other’s work intelligence information. In fact, the entire intelligence work is never complete without going through the process of analytical fusion; a process that serves to authenticate the numerous intelligence reports by incorporating the different perspectives, augmenting, improving, and/or simplifying the various complex issues at stake, while discarding inaccurate information. Without a doubt, Intelligence and Intelligence Analysis depend on each other to be able to deliver rational and coherent final reports for proper, wise policymaking. Inaccuracies in intelligence gathering, thus, have far reaching ramifications that affect the general public through the resultant policies. Reforms targeting the loose ends in the Intelligence Service are therefore necessary in the United States, for this is but the only way to get of inferior polices that serves to endanger the reputation of this great country among nations. Work cited Johnson, Loch, and James Wirtz. Intelligence: The Secret World of Spies--An Anthology. 3rd ed. New York: Oxford University press, 2010. Print. Read More