US Presidential Debates 2012 - Research Paper Example

Foreign Policy: United s Presidential Debates In an election year, especially before the voting gets underway, American candidates for the presidency, as well as the incumbent – in this case, Barack Obama, engage in rallies and conventions across the nation. It is here that most Americans, if they are watching television, can get a view of the candidates at work and showing what their selling skills to the people of America are. Yet, a truly interested voter will take the time to investigate the issues and determine the truth of what each candidate says about these issues. From there, as regards the incumbent, a voter will decide if that president really did all he could do to achieve his promises to the American people. There, of course, can be extenuating circumstances as to why one or more goals were not achieved and this factor, or factors, should also be taken into consideration for the overall summary. Barack Obama and his administration have delivered most of the promises made four years ago, and for not kept, there are certainly circumstances that affect the American people, and Obama as well, that no one can do anything about. In choosing to support Obama’s foreign policy, the reason is that he has done the most of any recent presidents to bring peace between America and the rest of world, in so much as he has been able to do so. OUTLINE OF BARACK OBAMA’S FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESSES The Obama/Biden website shows how he has ended the war in Iraq, returning control and security to the people of Iraq so that they can conduct their affairs on their own. While there are certainly still problems on the ground between Muslim sects, these are issues that must be controlled and solved by the ruling party of Iraq. At this point, it is not up to America to rule this country or to provide more help in the way of troops and arms. Those that the Americans military have trained, are now fully sufficient to take care of matters on their own. Obama has kept his promise to bring home the troops in Iraq and this has brought peace to Iraq (Barack Obama web). Living in the Middle East, the consequences of his influence is plain to see in how he has helped to promote peace through several countries when he has supported the overthrow of dictators’ regimes, leaders who have terrorized their people for decades. He has gone out of his way to promote cordial relationships with new leaders and encourage and supported the new regimes put in place by each country’s people. From there, he does not interfere further with a country’s politics but instead, supports from afar, what new regimes are trying to do for their people (Barack Obama web). Governor Mitt Romney, however, while promoting peace also, would be more inclined to put troops on the ground should the occasion arise. This creates the potential for another possible war, which no one wants. Romney also stands very firmly on the position of the red line which is held on Iran, a potential spot for nuclear development, and Romney has indicated he would go to war should Iran bomb Israel. While Obama will be cutting defense expenditures, Romney intends to eliminate that action and instead, double the money to the military to make sure they have everything they need. It is not clear how he would get the money however (Arquilla web). Other points to be made here is that Obama has set the deadline for American troops in Afghanistan to come home in 2013 and currently has also had American troops teach local Afghan troops how to use and bear arms so that they, too, will also be the peacekeepers in Afghanistan, much as those in Iraq currently are. Al-Qaeda has been significantly weakened in the Middle East since the beginning of the Iraqi war, allowing for the peoples here in many countries to experience freedom in living their daily lives. (Barack Obama web). Obama has also met with many of the leaders in the Middle East to help promote the end of nuclear weapons, particularly where Iran and North Korea are concerned. Sanctions which have been levied against Iran, have seriously weakened the economy and its people, causing problems for them to continue building their nuclear resources which could lead to a future stand off and nuclear warfare. AMERICANS SUPPORT OBAMA IN HIS POLICIES After the first debate, many already confirmed Obama supporters felt that Obama had “won the debate decisively.” Obama’s expertise clearly laid out his policies on the country’s economics and how he has brought America out of recession. He also won on points as many supporters indicated and this was also evident in the polls conducted by CNN and CBS, both supportive media groups for Obama. In the second debate, Obama was clear to point out that indeed he had said in his first news conference in the Rose Garden, that he did call it an act of terror in referring to the attack on the consulate in Benghazi, Libya. It is hard to understand the furor that has occurred in the United States regarding when the President actually knew about what happened in Benghazi as subsequently reported by the members in charge in the State Department. Hillary Clinton has now taken full responsibility for any lapses of information that has occurred since that event. Mitt Romney, the presidential contender, was wrong to put out a notice about the events in Libya as he should have remained quiet and supported his president. This has been part of the problem with contention in the nation as regards the Benghazi situation and right-wing activists have jumped all over this situation, claiming that President Obama has lied to the American people. However, the president has remained calm under attack as he quietly sends his teams to go in and find the facts regarding the Benghazi attack and the deaths of four Americans. THE POLLS In America, people have trouble with polls because many will say they were never polled and so where do they come up with these numbers? The Gallup polls are the one most looked at but there are several companies who put out polls, especially during political campaigns. Other companies that put out polls reviewed on television are the Rasmussen Polls and NPR or National Public Radio (NPR web). Several of the television networks such as NBC also conduct their own polls within their subscriber base to get an overview of what people think. For instance, after the first presidential debate, it seemed that many people thought Romney had won over Obama by a small margin, yet by the end of the second debate the returns showed that Obama won over Romney. Certainly, with the vice presidential debate, Biden was the clear winner, having practically won over Ryan. For example, before the first debate, Obama showed a lead of 51%, with Romney at 44%. In the battleground states, such as Florida and Ohio, Obama shows 50% and Romney at 44% (NPR web). As of 10/21/2012, the FiveThirtyEight Forecast for Election Day with the Electoral vote shows Obama ahead with 288.6 votes and Romney at 249.4 votes. In percentages of winning, Obama is currently 67.9% (+5.0 since October 13) sure to win with Romney behind at 32.1% (-5.0 since October 13). However, the popular vote shows less of a gap with Obama at 50.0% against Romney at 48.9% . By current standings, Obama should win with a fairly large margin against Romney. The battleground states are Ohio, 46.9%, Wisconsin, 11.6%, Virginia, 8.9%, Nevada, 7.8%, Iowa, 6.4%, Colorado, 6.3%, Pennsylvania, 5.4%, New Hampshire, 2.7%, Florida, 2.6%, North Carolina, 0.4%, New Mexico, 0.4%, Michigan, 0.2%, Minnesota, 0.1%, Maine (district 2), 0.1% and North Dakota, 0%. These are all showing in favor of Obama for election day (FiveThirtyEight 2012). Current Percentages by Electoral Counts Fig.2 New York Times, FiveThirtyEight Online, 2012 GETTING TO THE ELECTIONS It is understood that while polls can indicate a direction for an election, it isn’t really until the day of voting that polls will show the truth of who will win. This is when a full country finally steps in to give an account of where they stand and who they want to lead the country for the next four years. As noted before, polls, up until that time, are somewhat misleading for the very fact that only small sample groups are used to arrive at certain conclusions. It is not until the day of election that the full truth is seen. In the meantime, each political side declares their candidate the winner after any debate, regardless of how they may have done, according to news commentators and political advocates. THE BENGHAZI DILEMMA Where President Obama is having a real problem is trying to prove to the American people what exactly the circumstances were for the September 11th massacre of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans who were in the consulate at the time it was attacked and they were murdered. There is talk of a cover-up and this concerns many Americans as, should it be true that there was a cover-up, then this presents a statement of no confidence in the government on it foreign policy agenda. Most Americans feel that information was not forth-coming because of intelligence issue that had to be researched first before telling the public anything. It is assumed that the president has only the best intentions in mind when conducting affairs on behalf of the American people. Yet, the issue of security and why there was almost no security in place is becoming a big issue which the Romney side is pressing upon. In the upcoming last debate on Monday, October 22nd, it may turn into quite a fiasco as regards what information can actually be presented to the public (Ignatius web). Investigations of this nature actually do take quite a bit of time, sometimes even years, as regards the Kennedy Assassination. By the very nature of this assassination of Ambassador Stevens happening in another country altogether, it poses problems when the crime scene was not secured properly after the event. Therefore, a news organization, CNN, was the one to actually get in there first, get pictures of the place and to also find a diary from Stevens which detailed the problems with security at the consulate. This has now led to an internal investigation by Congress to find out from the Defense Department and from the Intelligence group, what they knew about the event, who authorized a cutback on security, why a Blue Mountain agency hired local Libyans to guard the consulate but didn’t arm them. Yet many have complained that Ambassador Susan Rice’s comments to the press have been misleading even while intelligence reports back up what she has said. Only time can tell what the real truth might be and it might be that intelligence, the CIA, actually had the story right as they told it to the President and others (Ignatius web). There are many issues as regards foreign policy, the United States and how it presents itself to the rest of the world. Many questions will be asked about the Benghazi event, now called “Benghazi Gate,” in reference to the Watergate event that occurred in President Nixon’s term of office. Yet, it would seem that given the time needed for investigations to take place, the American people should wait until after the elections in order to give the government more time to find out the truth. CONCLUSION The final debate was held on October 22, 2012, and CBS currently shows that those who are uncommitted declare Obama the winner at 53% with Romney at 23% and 24% are tied (Dutton et al. web). However, this is only the uncommitted sample group as polled by CBS which is heavily weighted to Obama. When questioned about who would do a better job in handling terrorism and national security, Obama received 64% and Romney 36%. On the U.S. policy towards China, Obama and Romney were split at 50% (Dutton et al. web). The final debate was rather low-keyed when most people, including newscasters, felt this could turn into a case of fisticuffs. Instead, while Obama outlined his policies and occasionally jabbed at Romney, Romney chose not to fight back except when Obama apparently did not state exactly what Romney had voted for in various policies concerning votes on cutting military expenditures and issues about getting out of Afghanistan. Romney was in favor of leaving Afghanistan but under certain conditions and Obama’s stance is that the U.S. would be totally out, leaving Afghanistan to manage for itself. Romney did say to Obama that taking potshots at him (Romney) was not an agenda and therefore, not needed in the debate if the question was about agenda. That was a rather pointed statement. The polls today, October 23, 2012, showed that Obama had an approval rating of 51% with a disapproval rate of 45%. Registered voters showed Romney at 48% and Obama at 47%. For likely voters, Romney is at 51% and Obama at 46% (Gallup web). When one takes a look at the Electoral votes, however, it shows a different story with Obama at 253 votes and Romney with 191. There are 94 tossup votes and while Obama could win right now, Romney has a chance to pick up those 94 votes and win with 285 votes. It’s a close race right now and there’s two weeks to go. Anything could happen. One last note - apparently, the United Nation’s forces have been ordered to stand by at polling places. Texas has told the U.N. that their forces will be arrested if this does occur (Stanton web). Works Cited Arquilla, John, “Fight Night,” FP National Security Online, Rational Security, 10/22/2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/22/fight_night_obama_romney Dutton, Sarah, Jennifer De Pinto, Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus and Lindsey Boerma. “Poll: Decisive win for Obama in final debate,” CBS News Online, Issues 2012: In Depth, 10/22/2012, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57537795/poll-decisive-win-for-obama-in-final-debate/ “Obama/Biden Online,” Presidential and Vice Presidential Campaign Website, 2012, http://www.barackobama.com/national-security?source=primary-nav Gallop Online Web Organization for National Polls, 2012, http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx Huff Post Elections 2012, Huffington Post Online, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/elections-2012 HuffPost Elections 2012, Electoral Votes 10/23/2012, Election Dashboard, http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map Ignatius, D, CIA documents supported Susan Rice’s description of Benghazi attacks, Washington Post Opinions, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/benghazi-attack-becomes-political-ammunition/2012/10/19/e1ad82ae-1a2d-11e2-bd10-5ff056538b7c_story.html NPR Online, Ahead of First Debate, NPR Poll Shows Romney Within Striking Distance, NPR Online/Politics, 2012, http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/10/03/162171197/on-eve-of-first-debate-npr-poll-shows-romney-within-striking-distance FiveThirtyEight, New York Times Online News, Politics, 2012, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/17/instant-reaction-polls-show-narrow-obama-advantage-in-second-debate/ Stanton, Jessica. United Nations organization set to monitor US polling places on Election Day, The Social Reader Online, Elections, http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/21/united-nations-organization-set-to-monitor-us-polling-places-on-election-day/ Read More