Presidential Elections in the United States - Essay Example

The main issues which define the direction of the poll are thus largely clear. Nonetheless, on the one hand, it is not clear whether the increasing non-white population, the younger generation, experts, unmarried persons, and secular population segments that voted for Obama, almost to a man in 2008, enabled him to secure a victory, will stick by him come next year, to secure him a second term (Teixeira and Halpin 2-6). On the other hand, the likelihood of the rival Republicans concentrating their campaign on the poor economic situation in the country might hurt Obama’s reelection campaign. Also significant are the campaigns by conservatives, who are critical of the Obama administration; they might pull a surprise on the incumbent candidate.

Teixeira and Halpin (1-14) note that the outcome of the poll notwithstanding, it is probable that American policies will remain immensely polarized for many years, even after the end of the forthcoming election. The political volatility witnessed in the past five years indicates that the fundamental issues influencing the American political debates, which include the protection of the society by the government, and the weighing of social and economic issues such as tax rates and social welfare programs, remain contentious. The financial meltdown and other economic problems, which take a toll on Americans, have deeply infiltrated the electoral debates. This implies that the previous presidential poll marked just the likelihood of a fresh quest for change in American policies as opposed to the preservation of the status quo. Obama’s latest public approvals at 46% and brighter economic prospects in several states in the country might result in a tough duel reminiscent of the 2000 elections.

Virginia
According to Teixeira and Halpin (53-56), in 2008, Virginia's vote was bagged by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama by a margin of more than six percent. In the run-up to the poll, analysts considered this an Obama state, or otherwise believed to be blue in the southern region. Previously, the state was viewed as composed of swing votes that both key contenders camped in during the 2008 campaigns. The financial crisis and the shifting demographics such as the population rises in the thickly populated northern region gave Democrats the advantage. The white liberals in the region undeniably resulted in a substantial influx of voters into the Democratic Party’s basket.

Florida
The strongest Republican influence in Florida originates from the upper region, which is home to about 25 percent of the entire vote in the state. Teixeira and Halpin
(46-50) indicate that, although his area has registered a remarkable increase in population, with figures hitting a 19 percent increase during the last decade, the statistics are inferior to the south. In the region, Republicans emerged as winners by 14 percentage points, nonetheless, the outcome translated into a seven-point increase for the Democrats within four years. And in the area’s sprawling metro region referred to as Jacksonville, the Democratic swing vote increased by 11 percentage points in 2008. Given this, Obama’s Florida campaign was highly enhanced by shifts in the developing regions of the state. Nonetheless, it is still unclear whether history may repeat itself next year.

North Carolina
According to Teixeira and Halpin (50-53), in North Carolina, before Obama’s 2008 campaign for the Whitehouse race, no Democratic candidate had won the North Carolina vote for more than three decades. Even with two presidential candidates from the Southern regions during the convincing Democratic wins in the 1990s and 2000, Republicans still bagged the state’s delegates. And as the 2008 race to Whitehouse got hotter, few were certain that any effort by Democrats in North Carolina would amount to a strategic move aimed at keeping the Republicans busy in an area where the party was popular, especially among the delegates. Nevertheless, using demographic inclinations and geographic data, Obama managed to recognize the white vote he was capable of bagging and reached out to them through tailored campaign strategies.

Conclusion
Generally, I believe that by narrowing it down to two, the major factors that will eventually influence the result of next year’s presidential poll in the US, the Teixeira, and Halpin were spot on. Given the social history of the country, shifting demographic factors and the essence of the economic recovery plan will likely determine the country’s next president. It would be rational, though, to add that the increasing non-white electorate, the younger generation who are well informed, vibrant issue-based politics, and seculars, singles will likely contribute to the elimination of the racial factor in the coming elections. In general, America is increasingly evolving into a tolerant society that bases political campaigns on pressing issues that affect the community, rather than ethnicity. Read More