Factors That Influence Voter Turnout - Research Proposal Example

? Factors That Influence Voter Turnout Introduction Citizens strengthen their participation in governance by taking part in elections. Low voter turnout has been reported as a problem in most of the European countries. Local electoral systems play a significant role in ensuring that there is democratic participation of citizens in a national undertaking. This depends on electoral machinery which should be understood and accepted by citizens1. Therefore, voter turnout is a major factor that determines the outcome of any election. This is because, if voters do not come out to vote for the most preferred candidate, his opponent might emerge the winner, regardless of the margin. United States ranks near the bottom in terms of low voter turnout2. This research seeks to institute whether campaigns, voter mobilization, voter education and voting practices and barriers affect voter turnout in presidential elections in the United States of America. The research also seeks to explain how the aforementioned variables affect voter turnout levels. Previous studies have provided some information as to why some registered citizens resolve to vote while others do not. However, such research has not explained sufficiently whether voter mobilization, voter education and voting practices and barriers affect voter turnout in presidential elections in the United States of America, and how these variables determine voter turnout levels in presidential elections. This study adopts the use of secondary sources to test hypotheses. Voter turnout in every subsequent US presidential election has been higher than the previous turnout. Finding reliable inferences pertaining to the research question will be crucial in predicting how various factors may affect future elections. Voter outcome speculators will also be able to make their predictions with greater degrees of precision. Future researchers may use the information acquired by this study in their surveys. The findings of this study are vital because electoral bodies may also use the inferences to implement changes that will ensure high voter turnout levels in future. The key terms in this study include voter turn out and voter mobilization. Voter turnout is the absolute of people who vote in the election, mostly measured in percentage3. Voter mobilization is influencing voters to pay attention to campaigns and vote in favour of a certain party. Literature Review Voter turn out in presidential elections is determined by several factors. Eligibility formalities and campaign stimuli are some of the determinants of voter turn out. Also, stiff competition increases the chances of most of the eligible and registered voters to vote. The United States of America prevents many or most of the convicted offenders from voting4. Such suppressed votes may have made a substantial difference in U.S national and local electoral outcomes. There are also pitfalls over the rights of immigrants to the ballot. Most studies have taken eligibility rules as a given4. Voting participation can be determined by socioeconomic factors such as income and education. Voting registration and turnout can also be affected by the amount of campaign stimuli in the context of political mobilization5. According to Dycke-Norris, the two most important factors that affect voting are the presidential candidate and the nature of the times6. Other factors that affect voter turnout include formalities for the inclusion in the electoral registers6. However, it is important to note that the more the people are registered to vote, the larger the number of those who are likely not to vote. Consequently, this may reduce the voter turnout levels in an election. Competitiveness between races may lead to a high vote turnout, especially when candidates come from either of these races. Voter education also affects the level of voter turnout. For instance, it was noted that education levels of voters determined whether they turned to vote in a presidential election. An estimate of 92.8% of voters with college degrees or more turned out to vote in 2004, compared to 93.3% of those who turned out to vote in 19527. Voters with college education turned out to vote by 79.5% in 2004, compared to 86.6% recorded in 1952. those with high school diploma or less turned out in numbers reaching 66.8% in 2004, against 80.1% of 1952. Those who had reached grade school or less turned out by 51.1% in 2004 compared to 62.1% of 1952. According to the research carried by ICPSR, concerning the 2004 national elections in the US, the central issues in the campaign involved actions and performance of the administration of President George W. Bush. The candidate from the Democratic Party, Senator John Kerry, spent a valuable amount of his campaign time criticizing the performance of President Bush8. On the other hand, Bush defended his record vigorously and attacked Kerry for many of his criticisms. Therefore, the events and occurrences during Bush’s first term in office were a major determinant of the voter turnout and outcome in the 2004 presidential elections. The voter turnout in 2004 was significantly higher than it was in previous elections, whereby about about sixty percent of the eligible voters voted in 2004. In 2000, only fifty five percent of the eligible voters had voted 8. The longer the campaign goes on, the greater the chance that things may occur, which can affect people’s judgement of the incumbent or the incumbent’s party. This is the period when events can only be interpreted through the political lens. Campaigns try to shape and manage the perception and judgements of the existing record and the perception and judgements of the new events that occur during the campaign period9. Pew researchers carried a research to determine the election turnout. The election turn out was the most important determinant of election results because it reflects the voting intention of the people who will actually vote10. Roberts’ research titled, Why We Don’t Vote: Low Voter Turnout in U.S Presidential Elections, sought to examine the declining voting trends in the United States. The study found out that voter turnout is influenced by socioeconomic factors such as population size, previous voter turnout and education levels11. This study seeks to establish whether voter turnout is affected by campaigns, voter education, voter mobilization and voting practices and barriers. Hypotheses and Their Theoretical Foundation This research seeks to find the relationship between each of the aforementioned variables and voter turnout. Therefore, null hypotheses will state that there is no relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The research tests both the hypotheses and the null hypotheses. Campaigns and Voter Turnout Hypothesis: Campaigns affect voter turnout levels in presidential elections Null Hypothesis: Campaigns do not affect voter turnout levels in presidential elections Theoretical Justification: Campaigns matter in the United States because Americans have more opportunities to vote each decade than other democracies. Election battles are waged through professionalised campaigns. Mass communications are used by pollsters, event coordinators and speechwriters to reach many citizens and increase voter turnout12. Smart campaigners know how they influence voting judgements through mobilization13. Voter Mobilization and Voter Turnout Hypothesis: Voter Mobilization affects voter turnout levels in presidential elections Null Hypothesis: Voter Mobilization does not affect voter turnout levels in presidential elections Theoretical Justification: Professional campaign strategists use mobilization as way of influencing voter judgement and increasing voter turnout. Mobilization makes voters to pay attention to some candidates. Strategies like the use of buses to ferry voters to the polling stations increases voter turnout14. Voter Education and Voter Turnout Hypothesis: Voter Education affects voter turnout levels in presidential elections Null Hypothesis: Voter Education does not affect voter turnout levels in presidential elections Theoretical Justification: There are differences in voter turnout pertaining to Asian Americans and other groups. The main cause of these differences is the function of factors such as voter education, among others15. Also, half of eligible Americans do not or cannot vote on Election Day, voter education and voter participation being the major cause16. Voting Practices and Barriers and Voter Turnout Hypothesis: Voting Practices and Barriers affect voter turn out levels in presidential elections Null Hypothesis: Voting Practices and Barriers do not affect voter turn out levels in presidential elections Theoretical Justification: The differences in registration laws among the states can depress voter turnout. It has been indentified that voter participation and turnout is high in states that allow voter registration on the day of election17. Also, having registration offices open for shorter hours and having closing dates for registration further from the election can depress voter turnout. Regulating access to the voting booth through registration is an additional roadblock in the voting process18. This lowers voter turnout. Research Methodology This study uses secondary sources as the main method of finding information to test research hypotheses. Information gathered from secondary sources such as electoral data will be used together with information from the Census bureau to establish how the independent variable influences dependent variables. In this case, data will be collected from various states, with different populations in terms of voter education, voting practices and barriers and intensity of campaigns. The actual voter turnout will be analysed against the dependent variables; campaigns, voter mobilization, voter education and voting practices and barriers. This will form a basis of determining whether the aforementioned variables influence voter turnout. For instance, voter turnout will be compared between states that have different voting practices and barriers. If there is a significant difference, then there is a relationship between voter turnout and voting practices and barriers. This is an appropriate methodology approach for this study because secondary sources provide concise summaries of past events19. For instance, electoral information can be summarised in a book. Also, using secondary sources can be helpful in answering a range of research questions20. Therefore, the use of secondary sources reduces expenses of research and increases the reliability of information collected because it is accurate. The data sources for this study will include National Electoral Management Bodies, National Statistic Bureaus, Election Guides, and Elections Database, Official electoral Data, The US Census Bureau and Demographic Books. Bibliography Baumgartner, Jody C, and Peter L Francia. Conventional Wisdom and American Elections: Exploding Myths, Exploring Misconceptions. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2010. Ceaser, James W, and Andrew E Busch. Red Over Blue: The 2004 Elections and American Politics. Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 2005. Chi, Tsung. East Asian Americans and Political Participation: A Reference Handbook. Oxford: ABC-Clio Press, 2003. Donovan, Todd, Christopher Z Mooney, and Daniel A Smith. State and Local Politics: Institions and Reform. Wadsworth: Cengage Learning Press, 2012. Dycke-Norris, Jacqueline Amy. Youth Voter Mobilization Techniques and Their Effectiveness in the 2008 Iowa Democratic Caucuses. New York : ProQuest, 2008. Ericson, David F. The Politics of Inclusion and Exclusion: Identity Politics in Twenty-First Century America. New York: Taylor & Francis Publications , 2011. Geys, Benny. "Explaining Voter Turnout: A Review ofAggregate-Level Research." 2006. http://www.wzb.eu/sites/default/files/personen/geys.benny.328/electoral_studies_25_4.pdf (accessed September 7, 2013). Gravetter, Frederick J, and Lori-Ann B Forzano. Research Methods for the Behavioral Sciences. Wadsworth: Cengage Learning Press, 2012. Green, Donald P, and Alan S Gerber. Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout. Washington, D.C: Brookings Institution Press, 2008. ICPSR. "Voting Behavior in the 2004 Election." 2013. http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/instructors/setups/2004.jsp (accessed September 7, 2013). Issenberg, Sasha. The Victory Lab:The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns. New York: Crown Publishing Group, 2012. Leicht, Kevin T, and J Craig Jenkins. Handbook of Politics: State and Society in Global Perspective. New York: Springer Publications , 2010. Leighley, Jan E. The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior. New York: Oxford University Press, 2010. Medvic, Stephen K. Campaigns and Elections: Players and Processes. Wadsworth: Cengage Learning Press , 2010. Pew Research. "Party Affiliation and Election Polls." August 3, 2012. http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/03/party-affiliation-and-election-polls/ (accessed September 7, 2013). Roberts, Daniel Steven. "Why We Don't Vote: Low Voter Turnout in U.S." 2009. http://trace.tennessee.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2373&context=utk_chanhonoproj (accessed September 7, 2013). Rolfe, Meredith. Voter Turnout: A Social Theory of Political Participation. New York : Cambridge University Press, 2012. Smith, Emma. Using Secondary Data in Educational and Social Research. New York: Open University Press, 2008. Staples, Lee. Roots to Power: A Manual for Grassroots Organizing. Westport: Praeger Press , 2004. Stoker, Gerry. Participation of Citizens in Local Public Life. Strasbourg : Council of Europe Publications , 2000. Read More