Variables that Affected Voter Turnout Rates in the 2012 Presidential Elections In the United States - Research Paper Example

Variables That Affected Voter Turnout Rates in the 2012 Presidential Elections In the United States Abstract It is common knowledge that in many democratic countries and states, the number of people who actually go out on the polling day to vote, do not reflect the true figure of those who are eligible to vote. In the United States, things are not different either. Throughout the years, the number votes casted has always been lower than the number of registered voters. That is the norm. This therefore means that the voter turnout rates are usually lower than the population eligible to vote. This research focuses on the variables that affect voter turnout, more specifically during the 2012 United States presidential elections. The research seeks to establish how each variable contributed, in one way or another, to the voter turnout registered during the aforementioned presidential elections. Research Question Did various demographic variables affect the voter turnout during the 2012 presidential elections of the United States? The 2012 presidential elections voter turnout rate was lower compared to the previous 2008 elections, as shown in the diagram below. According to many scholars and academicians, various demographic factors were responsible for the decreased voter turnout. This research therefore seeks to provide a concrete answer or response to this question, putting into consideration various demographic variables associated to elections and voter turnout rates. At this juncture, it is worth noting that the actual voter turnout was 66.65%, a figure that is arrived at after comparing the 129,067,662 individuals who voted out of the 193,653,908 registered voters[VotNd]. Literature Review A number of scholars and academicians alike have attributed various factors, both demographic and non demographic, to the decreased voter turnout rate in the year 2012. In his article, “why is turnout so low in United States elections”, Eric black has considered two major non-demographic factors. Black attributes the low turnout rates to the legal requirement of voter registration. According to him, many people are unable to vote simply because they do not like the cumbersome and complex procedure of voter registration. The other factor he considers is the voluntary voting, which allows people the liberty to choose whether to vote or not. The United States citizens are not compelled to exercise their civic and political right of voting, and therefore the voter turnout rates will always remain low. The Institute of Democracy and Electorate Assistance (IDEA) has also conducted a research and compiled data regarding the same issue. According to the findings, Age, gender and ethnicity are great determinants of voter turnout rates during any given election. In their findings, for example, more females turn out to vote that males. Thom File, in his article “Young-adult voting: an analysis of presidential elections, 1964-2012”, attributes similar demographic variables to the voter turnout[Tho13]. According to him, though a general trend since the year 1964, the number of young people who turned out to register in the 2012 elections were lower than the preceding elections. Furthermore, the voter turnout during the actual voting was even lower. The Center for Voting and Democracy builds on to the demographic variables, by associating race and gender to voter turnout rates. By this, it presents data to the effect that the people of Hispanic origin who turn out to vote were lower compared to those who were registered in 2012. The fact that the number of those who were eligible to vote increased to approximately 12 million from 9 million in 2008, can only be attributed to the general increase in their population. According to this article, the number of voters also varied in terms of gender. More women than men turned out for voter registration as well as the actual voting. Measurable hypothesis From the above information and discussion, it is fair and sensible to acknowledge the fact that demographic variables affect voter turnout rates in presidential elections in the united states. The variance in the voter turnout throughout the presidential elections years is therefore due to the various in the various demographic factors. For the presidential elections therefore, demographic factors such as age, gender and ethnicity must have affected the overall turnout in one way or the other. This paper therefore seeks to prove or disprove this hypothesis. Alternative hypothesis Various demographic variables such as age, gender, race and ethnicity affected the voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections in one way or another. Each variable affected the general voter turnout in a unique way. Causal Mechanisms In understanding how the aforementioned variables affected the general voter turnout in the year 2012, it is prudent to look at the statistics and how the same reflected in the general voter turnout. The question therefore is what caused the voter turnout rate witnessed in 2012? First and foremost, the number of the black people who voted rose, as compared to previous years. In fact, the number of black voters was higher than in any other presidential year. As much as many scholars have attributed this to the fact that one of the presidential candidates was of black origin, this had an impact in the general turnout rate. Another contributing factor is that citizens of Hispanic origin who turned out to vote decreased in number compared to those who were eligible to vote. This was, however, overlooked by many citizens simply because the number of those who voted increased compared to the 2008 presidential elections. In terms of age, it was witnessed that the number of voter turnout among young adults between the age of 18 and 24 was lower, compared to the turnout among voters aged 65 and above. It is, however, worth noting that there was a decrease compared to the turn out in the 2008 presidential elections. The sex factor is the last in the list, where it was noticed that the voter turnout among women was higher than in men. This goes a long way to confirm the tradition, just as it has always been. The diagram below is an illustration of the various factors responsible for the voter turnout rate witnessed in the 2012 United States presidential elections. Increased black voter turn out Decreased young adults voter turn out A voter turnout of 66.65% More females than males Decreased voter turnout among Hispanics Explanation for the Hypothesis It is understandable to come to the conclusion that the various demographic variables affected the 2012 presidential elections in one way or the other. Starting with the number of blacks who voted during the election, it has been seen that there was a decrease in the voter turnout, though it was more, for the first time ever, than the whites, as shown below[Tay13]. The decrease in voter turnout, however, is true, since the presidential elections in 2008 registered the highest number of voter turnout among the blacks. This therefore means that the decrease in voter turnout witnessed in 2012 contributed significantly to the general voter turnout of 66.65% from 70% in 2008. Secondly, there was a decrease in the number of Hispanics who actually came out to vote. In 2008, the turnout rate among them was 49.9%, compared to the 48% in 2012. This was not a very significant decrease, which is rightly reflected in the mere decrease of 4% in the general voter turnout rate. The Demographic Variables In this part of the research, we shall dwell deeply on the figures presented by each variable, in order to quantify its effect to the general voter turnout in the 2012 elections. Age is the first on the list. Generally, registration and voting rates tend to increase with age. This means that the higher you go the higher it becomes. Many eligible young adults did not vote during the election. This is confirmed by the fact that only 41.2% of registered young adults actually voted. This contrasts with a high percentage of 72% for those who voted among people aged 64 and above, as shown in the diagram below[Tay13]. The voter turnout among voters of Hispanic origin also had an impact on the election. It is non-disputable that the general number of Hispanic voters increased. But this is simply because they had grown in number population-wise. However, the number of those who voted was very low compared to those who had registered as voters, as shown in the diagram below[Tay13]. Operationalization of Variables Let’s now have a better understanding of the variables used in this research and how each of them is measured. The age variable here refers to two categories; young adults and old adults. Young adults range between the age of 18 and 24, while old adults range from 64 and above. This variable is measured interms of years. Race with regard to elections in the United States is categorized into non-Hispanic whites, Hispanic whites and blacks. Hispanic whites are those citizens associated with span-Portugal origin. Gender is discussed on the basis of sex, i.e., male or female. Levels of Measurement This section defines the relationship between characteristics of variables. For instance in gender demographics, a nominal scale is used to compare the turnout rates in males to those in females. As it was witnessed during the 2012 presidential elections, the voting rate for women was 63.7% while that of men was 59.7%[UniNd]. The relationship is described from the difference in value between these two figures, which is 4%. The relationship therefore is that the percentage voter turnout in women was 4% more than the percentage turnout in men. Statistical inferences, data analysis and interpretation From the discussion above, it is clear to make the inference that more women voted in the 2012 presidential elections that men, as seen by the 4% difference in voter turnout rates. Also, the number of old adults who voted was more than the number of young adults who voted. According to the Census Bureau Report, the voter turnout among the youth fell from 48.5% in the 2008 elections to 41.2% in the 2012 elections[UniNd]. On the other side, the turnout rates of adults aged 65 and above rose from 70.3% in 2008 to 71.9%in 2012. Conclusion From the discussion, the decrease in general voter turnout in the 2012 United States presidential elections is no longer a mystery. The fact that there were decreases in turnout across the board clearly and conclusively explains this. As much as the raw numbers of those who were involved in the exercise increased thanks to population increase, the percentage of those who voted from those eligible to vote was pretty low. Therefore, it is fair to conclude that various demographic variables usually have an effect on the voter turnout in every election. The United States presidential elections are therefore no exceptions, and more specifically, the 2012 presidential elections. References VotNd: , (I.D.E.A 1), Tho13: , (File pgs 20-150), Tay13: , (Taylor and Lopez paragraph 1), Tay13: , (Taylor and Lopez paragraph 3), Tay13: , (Taylor and Lopez Paragraph 2), UniNd: , (U.S.C.B 1-2), Read More