China: The Next Regional Hegemony - Research Paper Example

?  China: The Next Regional Hegemony 08 March China: The Next Regional Hegemony The collapse of Soviet Union helped America to become the only superpower in the world. Moreover America got enough opportunities to concentrate on other international matters because of the ending of cold war with Soviet Union. However, the rise of China as a superpower is causing big concerns to Americans at present. “From the mid-1980s through the late 1990s China’s economy grew at a rate of approximately10% a year. From the late 1990s until 2005 its economy grew at 8% to 9% annually. In 2006 China’s annual growth rate was above 11%”1. “During 1997–2005, the PRC’s average annual growth rate in real GDP was 8.9%. During the forecast period of 2005–2010, it was assumed that the PRC continued its historical growth trend of 8.9% per year”2 . It should be noted that no other country in the world have currently registered such huge economic growth rate. Even amidst global financial crisis, Chinese economy stood well which clearly suggests that China is on the right track to become a not only a regional hegemony but also a global power in near future itself. According to McEachern (2009), “the world’s richest country, United States has $ 246 trillion trade deficit with China at present”3. Even though China’s prospects to become a global power are extremely bright, some people argue that China’s claims are far from realities. In their opinion, China is deliberately exaggerating the figures to convince the external world that they are going to be the next global power. Unemployment problems, corruption and the increasing gap between the rich and poor are some of the major problems which are preventing China’s progress towards a superpower status. This paper analyses the arguments in favor and against China’s rise to be the next regional hegemony. Arguments in favour of China’s rise to be the next regional hegemony Feng, (2007) argued that “China has not balanced against power, nor has China balanced against threat, as the balance of threat theory would predict. Instead, China has formed friendly strategic partnerships constructively with most of the major powers in the world”4. China’s foreign policies were not much friendly towards democratic countries in the past. They gave more focus to establish strong relations with communist countries such as Soviet Union and Cuba in the 70’s and 80’s. Chinese leader Mao was so much adamant in his attitude towards capitalist countries. On the other hand, Deng, the leader who succeeded Mao restructured China’s foreign policies and economic policies which paved way for China’s leap towards economic progress. Deng was so particular in opening China’s economy much widely to foreign direct investments and he realised that it was difficult for China like heavily populated country to develop properly with the help of internal resources alone. Even though globalization was treated suspiciously by China earlier, they quickly realised the opportunities and made necessary changes in its economic policies to accommodate the needs of globalization. Moreover, Deng started to trust western leaders more and more and he redefined China’s foreign policies cleverly to suit the needs of western countries. Currently China is the number one exploiter of globalization. Moreover, foreign direct investments in China are more than that in any other countries in the world. It should be noted that earlier, China was not much keen in allowing foreign enterprises to function on its soil. However, at present China is doing everything necessary for the safe functioning of foreign organizations in its soil. Gao (2005) has mentioned that “the industry sector has relieved from the complete dominance of the government and lot of small scale industries under private ownership has been developed as part of the reformation process”5. Earlier, the dominance of communism was evident everywhere in China’s business and trade sector. Since private capital was not allowed in China, no organizations in China were able to function under private sector earlier. Ho0wever, Deng made lot of changes in communist principles in order to cater the needs of modern society. In fact Deng gave a humanitarian face to communism which helped China to grow properly. As mentioned in the introduction, United States has $ 246 trillion trade deficit with China at present. In other words, world’s only superpower America is currently indebted to China in many ways. This fact itself reveals China’s progress towards becoming a superpower in the world in near future itself. It should be noted that America’s economic growth has been considerably declined over the last few years because of recession. Still America is struggling to put the economic growth back on track. Many economists believe that America may not be able to attain the same economic growth as they did a decade before, at least for few more years. In other words, China has better atmosphere at present to become a superpower in the world. China’s burgeoning economic power, combined with rapid military modernization is of central interest in defining the 21st Century global system. China’s growing power and seemingly limitless potential raise serious questions about China’s interests in East Asia. Works such as The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel Huntington and The Coming Conflict with China by Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, paint the image of an aggressive China building its power to challenge American influence and establish China once again in its traditional role as East Asia’s hegemon6. China’s hostility towards neighboring countries such as India, South Korea and Japan clearly reveals their ambition to become the major power in Asia. It should be noted that these countries are currently in better terms with United Sates. Chinese hostility towards these countries can be perceived as its hostility towards United Sates itself. The increasing presence of United Sates in Asian region is indigestible to China. Recently China has put forward a claim on one of India’s north eastern state Arunachal Pradesh. Many politicians believe that China is trying to generate reasons to attack India and to destroy India’s economic progress. India’s economic progress is causing worries to China now. “The commonly accepted view of a future Chinese hegemonic regime is that it would parallel China’s hegemony during its imperial history. During this period, China considered itself the “Middle Kingdom” between heaven and earth”7. Arguments against China’s rise to be the next regional hegemony It is clear from the historical record how American policymakers will react if China attempts to dominate Asia. The United States does not tolerate peer competitors. As it demonstrated in the twentieth century, it is determined to remain the world’s only regional hegemon. Therefore, the United States can be expected to go to great lengths to contain China and ultimately weaken it to the point where it is no longer capable of ruling the roost in Asia. In essence, the United States is likely to behave towards China much the way it behaved towards the Soviet Union during the Cold War8. In South East Asia, India is raising stiff challenges to China’s ambitions to become the sole power in this region. It should be noted that India is emerging rapidly as a prominent power in South East Asia. India is matching with China’s economic progress in every aspect. Moreover, being a prominent secular democratic country in the world, India’s growth is more digestible to America compared to that of China. So, America is keen in watching India as the major player in South East Asia rather than China. America knows very well that China is deliberately doing everything possible to destabilize them at the backdrop. So, America do not like China to become the global power since China’s rise may cause immense damages to America’s interests. At present America is conducting war on terror in Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is difficult for America to interfere in these countries as freely as they do now, once China became a superpower. Pakistan’s relations with China are much stronger than their relations with America. The killing of Osama in Pak territory by American troops without taking the consent of Pak authorities is a big setback for Pakistan. They do believe that America is challenging their sovereignty. These incidents forced Pakistan to reanalyse their foreign policies towards America and China. At present Pakistan is slowly aligning towards China. America knows these things very well and they are doing everything possible to make India capable to challenge the resistance of China and Pakistan. Even though unemployment is coming down in China over the last few years, it is impossible to keep a blind eye towards these problems in China. It should be noted that educated youths coming out from Chinese colleges and universities are not getting enough employment opportunities in the White collar job sector. In the manufacturing sector, China has lot of vacancies; however these vacancies are not suitable to the needs of educated people. According to Litao & Yanjie (2010) mentioned that “What confronts the young generation of today is structural unemployment, mostly resulting from a mismatch between the conditions and nature of jobs and the skills and expectations of the young generation”9. Current educated youths are not ready to accept whichever jobs coming in their way. They are very much selective in accepting job offers. Unlike the old generation, they are not ready to work in hard working labor sectors such as the construction fields or manufacturing sectors. Litao & Yanjie pointed out that “In recent years, more than 30% of college graduates fail to secure a job upon graduation each year”10. Moreover, “As many as 750,000 college graduates could not find a job upon graduation; the number soared to 1.2 million in 2005, and nearly 2 million in 2009, or 32% of the 6.1 million graduates11 . These statistics clearly suggest that unemployment problems are causing big worries to China even though the economy is growing rapidly. Even though the authorities are deliberately trying to reveal false statistics with respect to unemployment rates in China, reality is far away from the published statistics. In other words, China publishes wrong statistics with respect to unemployment in China to convince the external world that they are rapidly developing to a global power. Growing corruption is another major problem causing huge barriers in front of China’s marching towards becoming a regional hegemony. “Though the Chinese government has more than 1,200 laws, rules, and directives against corruption, implementation is spotty and ineffective. Roughly 10 percent of government spending, contracts, and transactions is estimated to be used as kickbacks and bribes, or simply stolen”12. Many people have the false belief that because of tight communist administration in China, corruption may not exist in China. However, reality is far away from those assumptions. China is one of the most corrupted countries in the world at present. It is difficult for the common people to get permissions from the authorities for various things without giving bribes or kickbacks. As in the case of unemployment and corruption, criminal activities are also growing in China like all the other countries in the world. China is one country in which women suicide rates is more compared to other countries. It should be noted that Chinese women forced to undertake hard labour and their living conditions are pathetic. They are actually treated as different citizens in China. They will never get the same recognition s their male counterparts even if they excel in their profession. In most of the countries farming is the duty of males; but in China it is the duty of the women. Moreover Chinese women are facing more sexual exploitation than women in other countries. Family has not much meaning in China and as a result of that divorce is common in Chinese society. China’s one child policy is another worrying factor for the people. Cases of human right violation are still coming out from China. No medium can operate freely in China. Censoring of information is still going on in China which is another worrying factor not only for the Chinese but also to the external world. In short Chinese society is highly mechanical in nature and human values have not much meaning in China. Moreover, Chinese society is male dominant one even though communism speaks volumes about socialism and equality. “Chinese economic miracle is losing its lustre. Growth is clearly slowing. Chinese Communist Party officials claim a 7.8% GDP growth for 1998, just short of their goal of 8% Projected growth for 1999 is only 7%. These growth figures may be misleading”13. Many people believe that some of the statistics given for publication by Chinese authorities are misleading or exaggerated. In other words, China is trying to mislead the world with respect to their economic growth. In fact China wants to convince its people that they are rapidly becoming the most developed country in the world. It should be noted that socialism or communism failed miserably in all the other countries where it existed previously. China wanted to make sure that people may not come out against the administration and for that purpose they are trying to convince the public that everything on the right track in China. Conclusions China’s claims seem to be exaggerated and misleading. It is a fact that China achieved huge economic growth in recent past. However, the data published by them about their economic growth is not fully correct. China wanted to convince its people and external world that communism or socialism is no more a failed political philosophy. They wanted to educate the people that while most of the other countries struggled to overcome the recession problems, China was able to resist these problems. China’s ambitions to become a global power or at least a power in Asia are no more a secret. They know very well that countries such as India, Japan, and South Korea is causing problems to them in their effort to become a regional power. Moreover, they know that America do not like their superiority in Asia. All these facts forced them to threaten the world with exaggerated data about their economic and military growth. Bibliography 1. Cheney, Joseph F. China: Regional Hegemon Or Toothless Tiger? [Online] http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc/99-079.pdf[Accessed on 08 March 2012] 2. Feng, Huiyun. 2007. Chinese Strategic Culture and Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Confucianism, Leadership and War. Publisher: Routledge; 1 edition (May 11, 2007) 3. Gao,Tao. Globalization and China: Impacts on the Economy and People's Quality of Life". 2003. [Online] http://www.hofstra.edu/pdf/biz_mlc_gao.pdf3 [Accessed on 08 March 2012] 4. Litao Zhao & Yanjie Hunag. Unemployment Problem Of China’s Youth. 2010. [Online] http://www.eai.nus.edu.sg/BB523.pdf [Accessed on 08 March 2012] 5. Layne, Christopher. China’s Challenge to US Hegemony. 2008. [Online] http://acme.highpoint.edu/~msetzler/IR/IRreadingsbank/chinauscontain.ch08.6.pdf [Accessed on 08 March 2012] 6. Mai Y. H., Adams P., Dixon P. and Menon J. 2010. The Awakening Chinese Economy: Macro and Terms of Trade Impacts on 10 Major Asia-Pacific Countries. Asian Development Bank. ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration. [Online] Available at: http://www.adb.org/documents/Papers/Regional-Economic-Integration/WP66-Mai-The-Awakening-Chinese-Economy.pdf [Accessed on 08 March 2012] 7. McEachern, William A. “ECON Macro 2”. Publisher: South-Western College Pub; 002 edition (September 11, 2009) 8. Mearsheimer John. Why China’s Rise Will Not Be Peaceful. 2004. [Online] http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0034b.pdf[Accessed on 08 March 2012] 9. Pei, Minxin. Corruption Threatens China’s Future. 2007. [Online] http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=19628&prog=zch [Accessed on 08 March 2012] Read More