Demographic Transition Theory - Essay Example

? Population Theories Demographic Transition Theory The demographic theory became one of the most predominant theories of population growth world over. It was based on the population trends in most Western European nations that asserts that population has to go through three stages in the journey to complete civilization (Caldwell, 2010). The first step which is commonly referred to as pre-transition stage is characterized by high birth rate and death rate. In addition to, the population growth is low and fluctuating. This was is a result of high infant mortality, lack of family planning, lack of health care and high levels of disease and illnesses. There is minimal migration into these countries at this stage. Examples of countries that are in this stage are Least Economically Developed Countries in the modern world and Britain in the 18th century. The second stage is the transition whose main features are rapid population growth, declining mortality rates and increasing birth rates. This stage can be divided into early transition and late transition (Caldwell, 2010). In the early stages, birth rates are higher than the death rates and the population starts to rise progressively. This can be attributed to improved health care, hygiene, sanitation and food production and storage. Examples of countries in this stage are Nigeria, Bangladesh and Britain in the 19th century. In the late transition, the birth rate begins to fall steadily and the death rate continues to fall giving rise to a population increase. This is caused by improved standards of living, better status of women and improved mechanization. Migration into these countries increases slightly. Countries that are in this stage include Brazil, China and Britain the early 20th century. The final stage is the post- transition stage that distinguished by low mortality rates and low fertility rates resulting to minimal population growth. Examples of countries experiencing this stage include Brazil, China and Britain in the early 20th century (Caldwell, 2010). There is increased migration into these countries as they are fully development and endowed with economic opportunities. The three stages are explained in terms of urbanization, economic development and industrialization. The major weakness is that it lacks universal applicability since not all countries go through the three stages. Furthermore, some counties are yet to go through industrialization (Beard and Petitot, 2010). Trends in Fertility, Mortality, Migration and Urbanization in the U.S. During the Past Century The US is the third most populous country in the world and accounts for approximately 4.5 percent of the global population (Passel and Cohn, 2008). The population grew by over 205 million in the past century (Passel and Cohn, 2008). It is important to note that the population became increasingly diverse and older (Hunt, Hunt and Falk, 2008). These demographic changes have impacted on trends in present times and in future. The massive increase in population growth was due to an increase in the birth rate, a decrease in the birth rate and a rise in net immigration. It can be noted that the population was increasingly older in the 20th century. The population went through a profound demographic change as reflected in its aging population leading to an increase in the median age (Beard and Petitot, 2010). In addition to getting older, the population is became more ethnically and racially diverse. This was highly influenced by immigration which had a significant impact on the size and structure of the population. This shows that immigration on the rise throughout the century. In terms of fertility, there were fluctuations throughout the century. For instance, the fertility rates were highest in the ‘baby boom’ experienced in the 1950. However, sharp declines were recorded in the 1960s and 1970s (Beard and Petitot, 2010). The birth rates remained constant for the remaining period in the century. Urbanization increased rapidly over the century resulting from growth in the number of industries and companies. The US is home to most multinational companies that were established during this period. The demographic transition theory does support these trends in the US population to some extent (Hunt, Hunt and Falk, 2008). For instance, at the start of the 20th century there was a rapid population growth that was influenced by increased birth rates and immigration into the country. The birth rate and mortality rates declined after the 1970s. However, it can be noted that population has continued to grow constantly in the US. It can be observed that in spite of the increase in the older population, the mortality rates have remained low. In a nutshell, the theory supports the demographic trends in the US. Projection f Demographic Trends for the U.S. Population in 2040 and Their Implications for Public Health A projection of the demographics shows that the population will continue to grow rapidly, it is estimated to hit approximately 430 million by 2040 (Passel and Cohn, 2008). This is due to the increase in number of immigrants and increased birth rate among the existing population. It is expected that the population of immigrants will reach its peak in 2025 and 20% of the population will be composed of immigrants (Passel and Cohn, 2008). Furthermore, the elderly population will double while that of the working population and the young individuals will increase steadily. The mortality rates will increase due to the strain imposed on health care provision and prevalence of disease among the older population. Immigration is likely to increase due to their favorable immigrant policies (Hunt, Hunt and Falk, 2008). The Hispanic and non- Hispanic populations will continue to grow steadily and eventually Whites will become a minority group constituting less than half of the population. US is said to be one of the most industrialized countries and this trend is likely to continue in future. These projections show that there will be population growth resulting to increasing demand for health care. The government will spend more on provision of health care services. As earlier stated, the older population will be on the rise calling for the establishment of care homes for the elderly and training of the medical staff to cater to their needs. The elderly population is at risk of suffering from chronic illnesses such as cancer, high blood pressure and diabetes. This results to an increase in the medical costs. Future projections show that the older population will be more ethnically and racially diverse and this will require the health care providers to be more culturally competent. The government should take immediate measures to avert the high rates of immigration in order to keep population growth in check. There should be a review of the immigration policies that will be aimed at reducing the number of illegal immigrants. References Beard, J., & Petitot, C. (2010). Ageing and urbanization: Can cities be designed to foster active ageing? Public Health Reviews, 32(2), 1-18. Caldwell, J. C. (2010). Demographic transition theory. Springer. Hunt, L., Hunt, M., & Falk, W. (2008). Who is headed south? U. S. migration trends in black and white 1970-2000. Social Forces, 87(1), 95-119. Passel, J. & Cohn, D. (2008, February 11). U.S. population projections: 2005-2050. Retrieved from http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2008/02/11/us-population-projections-2005-2050/ Read More